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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/8/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Alex Bregman, Gleyber Torres, Kyle Schwarber, and more.
We have a small slate of MLB action today, but that doesn't mean we aren't hunting home runs. Our focus today will be on bats in good matchups and in good hitting conditions, whether that be park or weather. I put up a donut on Tuesday when writing the article, so here is my redemption tour for the week.
I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four hitters to go deep.
On this page, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, May 8, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best odds, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also essential to only risk a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since they're tough to win.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/8/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Thursday, May 8:
- Trevor Larnach, Minnesota Twins
- Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox
- Gleyber Torres, Detroit Tigers
- Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Trevor Larnach OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
We start our redemption tour with two home run bets in the day's first two games. It will be in the 60s with a light wind blowing in tonight at Target Field. The conditions are average, but the matchup for Larnach is where I want to attack.
Dean Kremer has struggled this season, to say the least. He has a 4.86 xFIP, 13.3% K, and 6.7% SwStr this season. The swing and miss stuff is concerning, especially when he has a 92.0% Z-Contact. He is not missing bats, and when balls are thrown in the zone, he is getting hit to a 1.67 HR/9 and a 42.9% FB.
Lefties are the place to attack with Kremer. He has allowed a .378 wOBA, .237 ISO, 2.0 HR/9, 41.9% FB, and a 37.2% Hard Hit against left-hand hitters this season. There are only two lefties in this lineup that I want to focus on: Trevor Larnach and Brooks Lee.
Larnach ultimately became my target because of how well he hits the cutter, which we will get to. In 2025, Larnach has a .327 wOBA and a .135 ISO against right-hand pitching. He has four home runs against right-hand pitching this season.
Kremer has allowed three home runs against his cutter this season, and its xSLG is .589. Larnach crushes this pitch. He has a .700 wOBA, .709 ISO, 22 LA, and 2 HR on 45 pitches similar to his cutter.
Lee profiles well here as well, but I trust Larnach's proven big-league power to get us on the board first today.
Alex Bregman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Red Sox will host the Rangers in Fenway Park this afternoon. The weather is neutral to hitters, but the park is a hitters' park. Bregman will square off against Jack Leiter, who is a promising young arm, but he allows a fair amount of power.
Bregman has been tremendous in Fenway, and his pull profile is made for this park. Six of eight home runs are to the pull side this season, and in this park with the Green Monster, all he needs to do is elevate.
Leiter has a 4.26 xFIP, 1.02 HR/9, and a 39.6% FB this season. Over his last two starts, he has struggled to a 6.72 xFIP, 12.8% K, 6.7% SwStr, 2.35 HR/9, and a 50.0% FB. He has a 92.2% Z-Contact during that span. This is similar to Kremers's profile, with not missing bats and allowing a ton of hard-hit balls in the air.
Leiter's advanced Metrics are much worse against right-hand hitters this season. Leiter has a 5.16 xFIP, 50.0% FB, and a 27.3% Hard Hit. This is where Bregman comes in. He has been the best bat for the Red Sox in 2025.
Bregman has a .431 wOBA and a .315 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He profiles very well against Leiter's arm angle and pitch mix. Bregman has a .320 wOBA, .200 ISO, 14 LA, and 1 HR over a 122-pitch sample size of right-handed pitchers with the same arm angle as Leiter.
Alex Bregman has put up MONSTER numbers to begin his @RedSox tenure! pic.twitter.com/6Fzg100Hkl
— MLB (@MLB) May 6, 2025
I love this park and spot for Bregman to hit one over the Green Monster against Leiter.
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Gleyber Torres OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Our third home run bet takes place this afternoon at Coors Field, one of the best hitting environments on the slate. It will be seventy degrees with neutral wind, which is the best hitting environment this series has seen.
Torres will square off against a southpaw in Kyle Freeland. Torres is what we call a lefty masher. He has destroyed left-hand pitching his entire career, and he is off to it again in 2025. Torres has a .543 wOBA and a .440 ISO this season against left-hand pitching. He has a 55.0% FB and a 50.0% Hard Hit against the split.
Gleyber Torres blasts the second @Tigers home run of the inning! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/wLd5L1HVrK
— MLB (@MLB) May 2, 2025
Freeland has been very good this season, but the underlying metrics are extremely concerning. Over his last two starts, Freeland has a 1.74 HR/9, 41.0% Hard Hit, and 97.1% Z-Contact. In this park against a Detroit team that has a 123 wRC+ this season against lefties, this is not a good recipe for success.
Last but not least, Torres hits pitchers like Freeland well. Over an 89-pitch sample size of lefties with the same arm angle as Freeland, Torres has a .382 wOBA, .421 ISO, and 2 HRs. Torkleson was a good option here as well, but Torres was the best profile for me to go yard in Coors on Thursday.
Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+235 DraftKings/FanDuel Sportsbooks)
Our last home run bet of the night will be our only night game of the slate. George M. Steinbrenner Park plays extremely short to left-handed hitters, and the wind will blow 10-15 mph straight to right field. It will also be 85 degrees. This is my favorite spot on the slate to go home run hunting.
Ryan Pepiot has popped up often in this article for me, and although he is a decent real-life pitcher, he gives up power. Pepiot has a 4.17 xFIP, 1.88 HR/9 and a 42.9% FB this season. Over his last two starts, he has 5.53 xFIP, 10.0% K, 6.7% SwStr, 46.9% FB, and a 90.5% Z-Contact. As it has been the common theme today, we are attacking a pitcher who is not missing bats and getting hit in the zone in the air.
Pepiot has been hit hard by both sides of the plate, but with the wind and short porch in left, I prefer the lefties. Pepiot has a .326 wOBA, .257 ISO, 1.9 HR/9, and a 42.3% FB against lefties this season. Four of his eight home runs have been against this side of the plate.
Schwarber profiles well here. Tonight, he is by far my favorite bat in this lineup. He has a .355 wOBA and a. .230 ISO against right-hand pitching this season. He has a .338 wOBA, .714 ISO, and three home runs over his last 19 PA.
Kyle Schwarber’s stats from his last 162 games played:
611 AB | 156 H | 25 2B | 44 HR | 120 RBI | 119 BB | 198 K | 7 SB | .255/.382/.512pic.twitter.com/DSNoakrq10
— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) May 7, 2025
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With Schwarber's wind and pull-side power, look for him to leave the yard tonight in Tampa.
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