MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/29/2025)

May 29, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/29/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, James Wood, and more.

We have only five MLB games on tap today. I will do my best to find some winners for us on a day when pitching will dominate the slate. With no real hitting environments on the slate, we will limit the card to three bets that we love, and another that we are still considering. We at RotoBaller have been extremely hot in this article over the last few weeks, so let's keep the trend going tonight.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need one of our four hitters to go deep to break even or make a profit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, May 29, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/29/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Thursday, May 29:

• Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros
• Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
• James Wood, Washington Nationals
• CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals

Isaac Paredes OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings)

For our first home run bet, we will start in a game with the Rays and the Astros. This game will be played at Dalkin Park in Houston. This is a neutral park and is played in a dome. The Crawford Boxes in left field are 315 feet from home plate and are a paradise for right-handed hitters, which we will get into later.

Paredes was a perfect addition to the Astros team due to his pull-side power. All 11 of his home runs have come to the pull side, and seven of them have come at home in the Crawford Boxes. He has a .399 wOBA and a .222 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and has a .437 wOBA and a .279 ISO over his last 100 PA.

Shane Baz has struggled in 2025. He has allowed 10 home runs already this season. He has a 5.04 xFIP, 2.49 HR/9, and a 36.0% hard-hit rate over his last 30 days. Baz has allowed seven of his home runs to right-handed hitters, as well as a .474 SLG against the split.

My favorite stat for Baz is that he has allowed a 39.4% Pull against right-handed hitters with a 38.7% FB. That lines up perfectly for Paredes and the Crawford Boxes in left field.

Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings)

For the second day in a row, I am going to Brandon Lowe. Those in the Discord yesterday got a winner. For our premium members reading this article, make sure you get in there. For those reading who are not premium subscribers, give us a try. We do much more than just betting.

Ryan Gusto has a 5.92 xFIP, 2.84 HR/9, and a 45.2% FB% over his last 30 days. Over his previous two starts, he has allowed a 2.28 HR/9 and a 53.8% FB%. Gusto has allowed all six of his home runs to left-handed hitters this season. He has allowed a .582 SLG, 3.5 HR/9, and a 42.9% FB% this season against left-handed bats.

Lowe has been red hot against right-handed pitching. He has a .412 wOBA and a .271 ISO against right-handed pitching over his last 67 plate appearances. He has a .344 wOBA and a .199 ISO against the split this season. He leads the Rays with 10 long balls in 2025.

Josh Lowe and Jonathan Aranda profiled well for the Rays in this spot as well. This is where it is tough to pick which lefty for the Rays hits the home run. This is where the pitch data allows you to distinguish which hitter it is.

Gusto has given up his power and thrown two pitches primarily this season, his four-seamer and his cutter. He has given up four home runs, a .242 ISO, and a .439 SLG against his four-seamer, and one home run with a .179 ISO and a .536 SLG against his cutter.

Lowe has a .508 wOBA and a .406 ISO against four-seam fastballs this season, which is the best of the Rays lefties. He also has a .395 wOBA and a .357 ISO against the cutter this season, which leads the Rays. I love B. Lowe to go deep tonight.

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James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+430 FanDuel)

Our last two home run bets are from the same game, but this time on the same team. The Nationals will play Game 2 of their series at T-Mobile Park in Seattle against the Mariners. This is located in a dome to ensure neutral weather conditions. However, the stadium is large, and it is in no way, shape, or form a hitter's park.

The profile here in this spot looks excellent for the lefties of the Nationals. Emerson Hancock has a 4.63 xFIP and a 1.95 HR/9 over his last 30 days. He has a 1.69 HR/9 over his previous two starts. The real appeal lies in Hancock and his struggles against lefties.

He has allowed five of his eight home runs this season to left-handed hitters. Lefties have a .419 wOBA, .580 SLG, 2.6 HR/9, and a 38.9% FB%. He has allowed a 44.4% Cent%, which is where Wood possesses his power.

Hancock has allowed six home runs off two pitches this season. His sinker has three home runs against it with a .192 ISO and a .548 SLG, and his changeup has three home runs against it as well, with a .265 ISO and a .500 SLG. Wood hits both of these pitches well. He has a .395 wOBA and a .250 ISO against the sinker this season and a .325 wOBA and a .238 ISO against the changeup.

CJ Abrams OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+480 FanDuel)

I am still debating whether to add CJ Abrams to my official card. On a five-game slate and some elite arms going, three home run bets are enough for me, but let's discuss Abrams for those that want more action, and you can make your own decision.

Abrams gets the same matchup as Wood above. Hancock struggles with left-handed hitters and has given up many baserunners and home runs. His home park will help him limit some of the power numbers, which is another reason why I may end up just on Wood. However, here is a look at his numbers from my model.

Abrams, like Wood, has crushed right-handed pitching this season. He has a .405 wOBA and a .269 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2025. He has a .418 wOBA and a .222 ISO over his last 82 PA. Abrams hits the sinker to a .650 wOBA and a .500 ISO, and he has a .563 wOBA and a .143 ISO against the changeup.

The difference between Wood and Abrams here is that Abrams' power is all on the pull side. Wood drives the ball to the middle of the field. Hancock's low pull rate does not profile well for Abrams' power.

Abrams is tempting; you make the call.

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