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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/28/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
We have a small slate of games with 16 teams in action today, but there are a few spots that look intriguing, including the Braves at Coors Field and the Cardinals at Great American Ball Park. Keep in mind that home run props have a low probability, so make sure to only sprinkle a small portion of your bankroll on these wagers.
The strategy for uncovering potential home run hitters today involves examining batter vs. pitcher data, batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, and weather conditions. Ideally, we want to stick to longshots, but sometimes, the spot looks good even in expensive lines.
Read on to find out my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, April 28, 2025. The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Don't forget to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Monday, April 28:
- Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
- Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals
- Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
- Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
- Lawrence Butler, Athletics
- Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+265 DraftKings)
Byron Buxton launches this two-run HR 414 feet 🚀 pic.twitter.com/5GvTMxS681
— MLB (@MLB) April 24, 2025
Buxton is having a terrific April, highlighted by six home runs with a .505 slugging percentage and 17.5 percent barrel rate. The Twins' outfielder is red-hot right now, going 9-for-28 with three homers in his last seven games. This includes three multi-hit games.
This looks like a good spot to target Buxton against Guardians' righty Gavin Williams, who is off to an underwhelming start, allowing a 9.9 percent barrel rate on the year, which ranks in the 33rd percentile, per Baseball Savant. Williams is also giving up a 1.38 HR/9, so he's been susceptible to the long ball so far.
This feels like a bit of an inflated price at (+265) odds, but I'm willing to take the shot given how Buxton is swinging the bat lately, and seems set to keep it going versus the struggling Williams.
Nolan Gorman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings)
Nolan Gorman blasts his 1st HR of the season 🚀 pic.twitter.com/8aN1y7CLD8
— MLB (@MLB) March 30, 2025
Gorman is getting everyday playing time for the Cardinals, suiting up in seven of the last eight games. This is a hitter with a lot of power, as highlighted by a 15+ percent barrel rate in every year of his career.
While the Cardinals' infielder only has one home run this year, this is a favorable spot to ride with him. For one, this game comes against righty Nick Martinez. Gorman has a career .221 ISO vs right-handed pitchers. They're also playing at Great American Ball Park, the most homer-friendly in MLB.
It also helps that Martinez has given up an 8.4 percent barrel rate this season, which ranks in the 46th percentile. At the same time, we're getting an expensive (+320) line on a hitter with only one home run, which is telling to me. Gorman is priced up because the market knows that this is such a terrific spot.
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Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings)
Olson is starting to heat up at the plate, homering three times in his last 11 games. This is a slugger with an extensive track record, including 54 home runs in the 2023 season. It's only a matter of time before we start to see a power binge from one of the most prolific power hitters in baseball.
That's why I like to ride with Olson tonight, since the Braves are playing at Coors Field, which, of course, is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball. It's a good matchup vs Ryan Feltner, who has given up a .390 wOBA to lefties so far this season. It also helps that Olson has a .456 xwOBA with one home run in five career plate appearances against Feltner.
When you look at Olson's recent batted ball metrics, you see a hitter who is well above league average in xwOBA over his last 100 plate appearances, per his Baseball Savant player page. This means that he's generating hard contact at a high rate, so there's a good chance that we'll see a power binge sooner rather than later.
Spencer Torkelson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings)
Spencer Torkelson - Detroit Tigers (8)
pic.twitter.com/x2kY5ZcB9r— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) April 26, 2025
Torkelson is off to a terrific start to the season, putting up eight home runs in 122 plate appearances, including an impressive 163 wRC+. It seems like the former top prospect is finally putting it all together for the Tigers, which means we're going to ride with him at a reasonable price of (+425) odds at DraftKings.
The Tigers visit the Astros, where Daikin Park is a good spot for right-handed power, as hitters can take advantage of the Crawford boxes in left field. This is only 315 feet, making it one of the shortest distances in baseball, which can help turn flyballs into home runs.
It's an exploitable matchup vs Ronel Blanco, who has allowed a 7.4 percent barrel rate and 1.16 HR/9 so far this season. Bet on Torkelson to take advantage of this spot tonight.
Lawrence Butler OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)
Lawrence Butler Strikes For His 3rd HR of 2025!
105.9 MPH, 24 Degree LA, 419 FT. .930 xBA
Butler’s 2.7 fWAR in the 2nd half of 2024 made him a top 15 player in baseball! The overall talent with Butler is special!pic.twitter.com/McGPzN5cih
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) April 23, 2025
Butler has put up a .171 ISO with four home runs so far, including two in his last five games. We could see another homer from the A's outfielder tonight, as he gets to go up against lefty Patrick Corbin. Not only is Corbin one of the worst pitchers in MLB, but Butler has had success against him in his career.
While it's a tiny sample of three plate appearances, Butler has generated a .841 xwOBA with one homer and two hits against the veteran lefty. When you consider that Corbin gave up a .374 wOBA vs righties last season, you have to like Butler's chances of hitting his fifth home run of the year tonight.
We're getting an appealing price of (+550) odds at DraftKings when you consider Corbin's numbers vs right-handed hitters. Let's ride with Butler to go yard in this spot.
Max Muncy OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)
Muncy is off to a putrid start to the season, highlighted by a .173/.292/.235 slash with zero home runs in 96 plate appearances. But let's remember that this is a veteran who has hit 36 home runs twice since 2021. There's enough of a track record here to trust that Muncy will eventually get on track.
If we look at Muncy's batted ball metrics, we see a hitter who still grades out well, highlighted by a 12.2% barrel rate, which ranks in the 72nd percentile. What's interesting is that Muncy has a .414 xSLG, which is much higher than his .235 SLG, indicating that he deserves better results so far.
We've got an exploitable matchup on tap against Edward Cabrera, a pitcher whom Muncy has had success against, homering once in eight plate appearances. I like the price at (+550) odds on a player who looks poised to go on a power binge soon.
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