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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/22/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
We have a massive fifteen-game MLB slate, with every team playing today, weather permitting. We have some spots with the wind blowing out and some decent spots for home runs nationwide.
I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. As always, my favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which is exactly what I will be doing tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, all we need is two of our five-hitters to go yard.
Keep reading to see my favorite home run prop bets from MLB games on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Don't forget to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Tuesday, April 22:
- Austin Wells, New York Yankees
- James Wood, Washington Nationals
- Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
- Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Brent Rooker, Athletics
Austin Wells OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings)
We attacked Tanner Bibee at the last start of this article, and it worked, so why not revisit the well with Austin Wells? Bibee has a 5.35 xFIP, 3.15 HR/9, and a 46.7 percent FB this season. He has a 2.61 HR/9, 40.7 percent FB, and a 40.7 percent Hard Hit over his last two starts.
Left-handed hitters have crushed Bibee to a .464 wOBA and a 469 ISO this season. Lefties have a 4.3 HR/9, 46.2 percent FB, and a 38.5 percent Hard Hit against Bibee this season. To say the least, lefties will leave the park today in Cleveland.
Of the lefties for the Yankees, Wells profiles far and away the others for me. He profiles much better than Judge as well. Wells has a .316 wOBA, .226 ISO, and a .727 OPS against right-hand pitching this season. He is hot against the split with a .312 wOBA and a .273 ISO over his last 14 PA.
AUSTIN WELLS LEADOFF HOME RUN ON OPENING DAY! pic.twitter.com/pRyAYqNEbF
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) March 27, 2025
Bibee throws two pitches to left-hand hitters, his four-seamer and changeup. He demolishes the four-seamer to a .461 wOBA, .447 ISO, and a 26-degree launch angle. Wells also has a .256 wOBA and a .375 ISO against the changeup. There should be fireworks on the pinstripes side of the plate today, and Wells is my best bet to leave the park.
James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings)
The weather is not ideal here for home runs, but I still want to take a hot here on Wood. It is warm, but there will be eight mph wind blowing in from left field throughout the game. This may not affect Wood as much as a lefty, but it’s still not as good as other spots in this article.
The matchup is about as good as it gets, and Wood's recent form has me biting here. Dean Kremer has struggled in 2025, to say the least. He has a 4.52 xFIP, 2.29 HR/9, 38.9 percent FB, 36.1 percent Hard Hit, and a 91.4 Z-Contact percentage. This comes with a 6.9 percent SwStr, so there are a lot of balls in play. He has a 3.60 HR/9, 36.1 percent FB, 44.4 percent Hard Hit, and a 94.9 Z-Contact percentage over his last two starts.
He has struggled with lefties in particular. Lefties have a 2.9 HR/9, 37.5 percent FB, and a 39.6 Hard Hit percentage against him in 2025. Four of his five home runs have come against lefties. Wood immediately stands out here because of what he has done in 2025 against right-hand pitching.
Wood has a .363 wOBA, .265 ISO, and a .819 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He is red hot against the split with a .406 wOBA, .429 ISO, and a .955 OPS over his last 16 PA, including two home runs. Look for Wood to stay hot in this matchup against Kremer.
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Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+700 DraftKings)
I am going to lead off by saying I do not like this park for home runs, but Elly has the power to hit the ball out of anywhere, so he is the type of hitter I am more interested in for the matchup versus the opposing pitcher. Edward Cabrera has always been prone to the long ball. In 2024, he allowed a 1.40 HR/9, and in 2025, he has already allowed a 1.86 HR/9.
In his first start of the season, Cabrera allowed a 3.0 HR/9, 44.4 percent FB, and a 44.4 Hard Hit percentage to left-hand hitters. In 2024, he allowed a 1.6 HR/9 against the split. The Reds are red hot after their series with Baltimore, and although they were shut out on Monday night, I don’t mind going back to the lefties in this spot.
Elly in 2025 has a .354 wOBA, .211 ISO, and a .807 OPS against right-hand pitching. He has three of his five home runs against righties this season. Look for Elly to jump all over EC in this spot.
Pavin Smith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+460 FanDuel)
Pavin Smith has been an elite hitter against right-hand pitching over the last two seasons. In particular, this season, Smith is off to a red-hot start. In 2025, Smtih has a .513 wOBA, .321 ISO, and a 1.209 OPS against right-hand pitching. Over his last 25 plate appearances, he has a .574 wOBA, .421 ISO, and a 1.384 OPS against the split.
Pavin Smith Since 2024
213 PA
.304/.385/.498, .983 OPS
12 HR (17.5 PA/HR)
23% K%
12.2% BB%Third-highest SLG in the league. He's close to an elite hitter when he's in the lineup (which is only vs. RHP) pic.twitter.com/ZJ7zCMP73J
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) April 18, 2025
Zack Littell has struggled with the long ball this season. In 2025, he had a 3.98 xFIP, 2.35 HR/9, 41.4 percent FB, and 38.6 percent Hard Hit. His 84 Stuff+ rating this season is the second-worst among the thirty pitchers throwing today. He has a 4.50 HR/9, 45.5 percent FB, and 48.5 Hard Hit percentage over his last two starts.
Both righties and lefties have hit Littell well this season, but in particular, lefties have a 2.3 HR/9, 37.9 percent FB, and a 44.8 Hard Hit percentage. Smith and Corbin Carroll both grade out well here for me, but I ultimately decided to bet on Smith after digging into the pitch data.
Littell throws his slider 35 percent of the time, and Smith hits pitches similar to that to a .404 wOBA and a .182 ISO. The intriguing thing here is the sinker. Littell has allowed four of his six home runs this season off that pitch. Smith has a .699 wOBA, .857 ISO, and an 18-degree LA against that pitch. I like his chances of taking Littell into the pool on Tuesday night.
Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+225 DraftKings)
Brent Rooker is the traditional last but certainly not least type of bet. This ballpark has allowed small numbers in 2025, with 22 home runs so far, and the weather will be on our side. There appears to be a 12 mph wind blowing out to left field at the first pitch, which is expected to remain constant throughout the game.
Rooker has been a lefty masher his entire career and now will certainly benefit from hitting in his new home park in Sacramento. Rooker has a .462 wOBA and a .471 ISO vs. LHP this season after posting a .393 wOBA and a .298 ISO against the split in 2024.
Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the big leagues for the last decade. He tends to have outings where the home runs come in bunches, and the Z-Contact percentage this season leads me to believe it’s going to come here in this park. Corbin has a 93.8 Z-Contact percentage with only an 8.8 SwStr percentage. Rooker's one weakness is swing-and-miss, and Corbin has none of it.
Rooker demolishes everything Corbin throws. In 2024, Corbin gave up 14 HRs on his sinker. Rooker has a .369 wOBA and a .263 ISO vs. pitches similar. Corbin throws his slider 32 percent of the time and his cutter 25 percent of the time. Rooker has a .436 wOBA and a .500 ISO against his slider and a .545 wOBA and a .429 ISO against the cutter.
⚾ Brent Rooker crushes one for the Sacramento Athletics! ⚾
That’s his 2nd home run of the season, and it’s a moonshot! Rooker is heating up—Athletics fans, get ready for more fireworks!
Check out the action: ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/wMRmyFgJBI
— MiloX Sports MLB (@MiloXSportsMLB) April 2, 2025
Shea Langeliers looks incredible here, too, and one of my favorite bets for DraftKings No Sweat HR is parlaying these two together.
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