Fantasy Football Rookies to Watch in Week 16

December 27, 2020

Intriguing fantasy football rookies who can be sneaky stashes and sleepers in Week 16. Hayden Epinette looks at promising prospects at QB, RB, WR, and TE to assess their values.

If you're facing Alvin Kamara in your fantasy championship, you're probably feeling pretty down about your title chances right now. For those in consolation brackets, that despair probably set in weeks ago. But even if this year is a lost cause, there are always good reasons to stay engaged in fantasy.

Redraft managers who have been eliminated should spend these last two weeks scouting talent for next season. Dynasty managers should do the same, but also consider adding late-season gems now. Finally, if you're in your league's championship, you should be making all the best moves to give your team a chance to win it all, of course. One common type of player can be key in all of these strategies: rookies.

Every week I name five rookies to watch in this column. Some are already well-known fantasy options who have intriguing opportunities in this week's games, but others have yet to reach their full potential. Whether you are fighting for the championship in your league's title game or gearing up for next year, you can benefit from identifying the next big rookie. This week's article will begin with a speedy receiver out in Las Vegas.

The Superb Athlete

Henry Ruggs III (WR, LV)

Ruggs missed last week due to COVID-19 protocols, but he will be returning to action this week versus the Dolphins. The quick wideout from Alabama hasn't produced much this year; his 23 catches, 414 yards, and two touchdowns are only good enough to make him the WR89 on the year in PPR leagues. However, it's not every day that you see a receiver with his speed. Ruggs's 4.27 40 time has certainly shown up in the stat-sheet. His 2.57 yards of separation per target is the most in the league among receivers, and his average of 4.51 yards of cushion is fourth. Ruggs can definitely blow by defenders, and his 18.0 yards per reception reflect that.

HENRY RUGGS FOR THE GO-AHEAD TD!!!!#LVvsNYJ | CBS pic.twitter.com/82kLmV1e5a

— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) December 6, 2020

It's just a matter of time before he puts together another 100-yard game to join his Week Five effort. Could that time come this week versus Miami? Probably not, given the Dolphins' stingy pass defense. However, Chiefs speedster Tyreek Hill beat Miami deep on a 44-yard touchdown catch two weeks ago, and he also pulled off a 32-yard touchdown run. While Ruggs isn't as polished as Hill, it is definitely possible for fast receivers to put up big plays against the Dolphins. That's what makes Ruggs a rookie to watch this week.

The Unapologetic Winner

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)

Tagovailoa hasn't been putting up big stats this year, but he probably doesn't care given his 5-2 record as Miami's starter. However, fantasy managers should absolutely care, obviously. Tagovailoa has surpassed 200 yards passing just three times in his seven starts, and his 12 total touchdowns, while solid, haven't quite made up for that. While Tua probably shouldn't be in your lineup this week outside of 2QB leagues, these final two games will be key for his fantasy stock entering next season. This is especially crucial for dynasty managers.

The Raiders are an interesting matchup for Tagovailoa. Las Vegas has surrendered the seventh-most passing yards in the league this season, and they're averaging the second-fewest sacks per game with 1.1. On the other hand, they have only allowed three or more passing touchdowns once this year, and they've limited opposing QBs to fewer than 200 yards twice in their last four outings. If Tua can take advantage of the Raiders' vulnerabilities like fellow rookie Justin Herbert was able to last week, he'll build some momentum into the playoffs and beyond. If not, though, the questions about his fantasy outlook will continue for at least one more week.

The Matchup Monster

Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)

The Chicago Bears were on the field for 64 offensive snaps last week. Kmet played all 64 of those downs. Despite his mere two targets, Kmet has been seeing more and more of a role as the season winds down. In both Week 13 and Week 14, the rookie out of Notre Dame had seven targets. In one of those, he turned in a top-seven fantasy performance among tight ends. Kmet has been showing some promise lately, and fantasy managers should be taking notice.

If you've been streaming tight ends and are in need of an option for championship weekend, Kmet should be on the table. He's a bit of a risky play given his low target share last week. However, his matchup is a very good one. The Jacksonville Jaguars have been poor against tight ends this season, yielding the third-most fantasy points to the position in the league. Last week, Baltimore's Mark Andrews put up five catches for 66 yards and a score versus the Jags. Kmet has a great chance to set new career-highs this week, making him a borderline TE1 for fantasy championships.

The Large-Legged Runner

AJ Dillon (RB, GB)

Dillon was a bit of a phenomenon in the offseason after his massive quads went viral on social media. Many in the fantasy community, myself included, considered him a sleeper during drafts. Aaron Jones's strong year has made Dillon's path to carries difficult, though; the rookie from Boston College has just 115 rushing yards on the season. He received just one rushing attempt last week, but he managed to gain 18 yards on it. Now, teammate Jamaal Williams is out with a quad injury, making Dillon an intriguing player versus Tennessee.

Dillon has evaded six tackles on his 24 carries in 2020, which is good for an elite 25 percent break tackle rate. Of course, this is a small sample size, but when you've got 4.53 speed to go with a 247-pound frame, it's going to be tough to bring you down. His 4.8 yards per attempt is also encouraging. If Dillon sees work in the absence of Williams, he could make a lot out of it. The Titans Defense has allowed the seventh-most points to running backs, so it's not as if Dillon has a tough matchup. Don't be shocked if the rookie puts up strong numbers behind Aaron Jones this Sunday.

The Stride Finder 

Quez Watkins (WR, PHI)

Watkins was a sixth-round pick last April, so expectations weren't particularly high entering the season. That's a good thing, considering he didn't make his first career grab until Week 14. He followed that milestone up with a surprisingly strong showing last week, making three catches for 40 yards with a beautiful 32-yard touchdown on a screen pass.

On 3rd & 20... rookie Quez Watkins takes the short pass to the HOUSE. #FlyEaglesFly

?: #PHIvsAZ on FOX
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/4dWJuGxOxQ pic.twitter.com/MA1q4Q7RjS

— NFL (@NFL) December 20, 2020

That play showcases Watkins's speed and his ability to make yards after the catch. He outsnapped Travis Fulgham 28 to 26, so his role is clearly increasing. Might we see more flashy plays this week versus Dallas? The Cowboys have allowed the second-most points to receivers this season, so it's definitely possible. The rookie from Southern Miss is not worth considering in redraft formats, but he may be worth a stash in dynasty leagues. Watch to see if Watkins continues to show improvement this Sunday.

More Fantasy Football Analysis