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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for November 1st, 2020 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
Week 8 of the NFL season is upon us and that means a big day for making prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
There are some great matchups, including the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the Baltimore Ravens, the New Orleans Saints in Chicago to play the Bears, and the San Francisco 49ers going to Seattle to take on the Seahawks.
But the most intriguing matchup, in a bizarre way, may be the New York Jets visiting the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are massive favorites, tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the best scoring differential (+75) in the AFC. The Jets are winless and have the worst scoring differential (-118) in the league so even if quarterback Sam Darnold is ready to return this week, the Jets are still facing an uphill climb.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Joe Burrow MORE THAN 288.5 PASSING YARDS
The Bengals rookie makes the Bengals a lively underdog most weeks and has thrown for more than 300 yards in five of the past six games. He goes up against a Titans Defense that has allowed 272 passing yards per game, the seventh-highest average in the league.
Aaron Rodgers MORE THAN 282.5 PASSING YARDS
Rodgers has experienced a career resurgence this season and has thrown for 283 or more yards four times in six games though, to be fair, two of those games saw him throw for exactly 283 yards. The main reason to be optimistic about his chances this week, though, lie with the opposition. The Minnesota Vikings have allowed 286.7 passing yards per game and 7.7 net passing yards per attempt, both of which rank in the bottom five, not the kind of defense that should be able to keep Rodgers down.
Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 280.5 PASSING YARDS
The Chiefs ought to crush the New York Jets this week and that might be reason to suspect that Mahomes won’t throw the ball a whole lot. He has passed for at least 281 yards three times in seven games and while Mahomes surely could pass for more yards, he may not need to. If the Chiefs jump out to a big lead, they may focus more on grinding out yards on the ground and that limits Mahomes’ yardage upside.
Darren Waller MORE THAN 5.5 RECEPTIONS
The Raiders’ number one target is averaging 6.7 receptions per game, with six or more catches in four of six games. Cleveland has allowed the third-most passing yards per game (288.1) so that vulnerability can be exploited.
Adam Thielen LESS THAN 67.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Minnesota’s veteran wide receiver has been very hit or miss through six games. In three of the games, Thielen has 80 or more yards. In the other three games, he’s been held under 55 yards. So, how will it go against Green Bay? The Packers’ pass defense ranks around the middle of the league, so this may require a bit of a hunch.
RAPID FIRE
Derrick Henry -12.5 rushing yards vs. Kareem Hunt
Tennessee’s mail-carrying running back, Henry is averaging 110.5 rushing yards per game and goes against a Bengals Defense that is allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Hunt has run for more than 70 yards in three of the past four games and is the lead ball carrier for the Browns with Nick Chubb injured. Hunt faces a Raiders defense that is surrendering 4.6 yards per carry. The bottom line is that it’s easier to trust that Henry will be the focal point of his team’s attack.
Davante Adams -21.5 receiving yards vs. A.J. Brown
Brown is coming off his most productive game of the season, which included 153 receiving yards, but Adam had 13 catches for 196 yards last week and is facing a Minnesota defense with one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Russell Wilson LESS THAN 303.5 PASSING YARDS
Although Wilson is averaging 315 passing yards per game, he’s also facing a 49ers Defense that is giving up just 203.3 passing yards per game and he would need at least 100 yards more to hit the over.
Justin Herbert LESS THAN 279.5 PASSING YARDS
The Chargers rookie has thrown for at least 280 yards in four of five starts but is facing a challenging matchup at Denver, as the Broncos have allowed 230.2 passing yards per game and 5.9 net yards per pass attempt.
George Kittle MORE THAN 6.5 RECEPTIONS
Kittle is averaging seven catches per game this season but that number is inflated by his 15-catch performance against Philadelphia in Week 4. At the same time, he’s going up against a Seahawks team that is giving up an outrageous 368.7 passing yards per game, by far the most in the league.
D.K. Metcalf MORE THAN 73.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Metcalf got off to a great start this season, with at least 90 receiving yards in his first five games, before he was locked down in Week 7 against Arizona.
RAPID FIRE
Keenan Allen -4.5 receiving yards vs. Tyler Lockett
Both Allen and Lockett are productive number one receivers and Lockett is coming off his best game of the season, accumulating 200 receiving yards on 15 catches against Arizona. This week, Lockett goes against the San Francisco 49ers, who are better defensively than Allen’s opposition, the Denver Broncos.
Melvin Gordon +2.5 rushing yards vs. Alvin Kamara
Gordon is averaging 69.8 rushing yards per game and faces his former team, the Chargers, this week. Kamara is averaging 60.7 rushing yards per game and takes on a Bears team with a daunting defense.
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