RADIO
Ahhh… the question of when to draft a quarterback in fantasy football… a dilemma as old as time itself. Is it better to take a stud quarterback early on or to take your chances with depth at the position later?
If you find yourself agreeing with the second option, you aren’t alone. It seems that the dominant narrative among fantasy football media sources is to focus primarily on your skill positions in the first few rounds and wait to select from a breadth of serviceable, even potential breakthrough quarterback candidates afterwards. Essential to this strategy is projecting which available quarterbacks are going to have strong seasons and which will fall flat, a tall task when considering that the range of outcomes for many late-round quarterbacks can be fairly large.
In this article, I’ll be taking a look at three quarterbacks whose average draft position (ADP) falls in or beyond round 7 and assessing whether they will boom or bust in 2017. ADP values will be taken from 10 team league mock drafts at fantasyfootballcalculator.com and my final verdict will be based on expected fantasy performance in comparison to their ADP and positional rank. Without further ado, let’s get started.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Derek Carr (QB, OAK)
Current ADP: 7.06
Position Rank: QB-6
The highest paid player in the history of the NFL also carries with him a fairly steep cost on draft day, that being the current QB-6 going ahead of Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Kirk Cousins. Is he really worth investing that early of a pick when those three quarterbacks would hypothetically still be on the board?
First, the good: Carr has thrown for 81 combined touchdown passes in his first three NFL seasons and has the 8th lowest interception percentage (interceptions per pass attempt) among current starting quarterbacks. He has also become more prosperous on a per game basis each year, improving on his 204.4 yards per game in his rookie season to 249.2 in 2015 and 262.5 in 2016. What’s more, the Oakland Raiders invested heavily this off-season in filling holes in the roster on the offensive side of the ball to ensure the continued improvement of their young quarterback. Adding an experienced tight end in Jared Cook and a field-stretcher in wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson will add to Carr’s already well equipped stock of weapons to choose from.
Despite the fact that he has improved over the years, QB-6 is a tough sell especially when considering the circumstances that will limit both the volume and production expected of a seventh round draft pick. Carr is going to have to play two exceptional divisional defenses in the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos four times a year, match-ups where he never scored over 10 fantasy points last season. Furthermore, what should be a benefit in the the Oakland Raiders boasting the league’s 7th best offensive line is also going to inspire a renewed commitment to the ground game headlined by Marshawn Lynch. The Raiders were already an extremely well balanced passing and rushing attack, averaging 37.2 passes (ranked 9th) and 27.1 rushes (ranked 11th) per game. My greatest fear is that the precious volume that enabled Carr to perform well will see a decline and lower his floor in those games where he does produce for fantasy owners.
Derek Carr is currently being priced at his ceiling, which makes it tough to recommend going for him unless you feel strongly about his top ten potential. To say he is more viable on a week-to-week basis than Kirk Cousins and even Russell Wilson is simply going too far when considering how Cousins finished 2016 as QB-5 and Wilson as QB-11 (only behind Carr by 0.42 points). Again, unless you have really fallen in love with him, let Carr fall and take your chances on a player with more consistency.
Final Verdict: Bust
Jameis Winston (QB, TB)
Current ADP: 10.01
Position Rank: QB-11
The 2016 fantasy football season was rough for Jameis Winston owners who had to deal with a quarterback that posted tremendous yardage totals but also threw a league-high 18 interceptions (second only to Philip Rivers). He finished as QB-16, shaping out to be more of a plug-and-play starter against underwhelming pass defenses. He is currently being valued as QB-11 in mock drafts, but you’ll forgive me if I hold on to a little bit of skepticism about how successful he’ll be this year.
I can hear it now: “but wait, this 2017 Bucs roster is crazy loaded!” Don’t get me wrong, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a dangerous offense featuring a bolstered wide receiver core with vertical threat DeSean Jackson and third round pick Chris Godwin to work alongside a dominant number one in Mike Evans. As if that wasn’t scary enough, they landed the consensus top tight end prospect O.J. Howard in the 2017 NFL Draft, inspiring fear in defensive coordinators around the NFC South.
And yet, the cause for concern when I look at Winston as a fantasy asset is how little he has improved in many areas that you expect young quarterbacks to when they take the leap from their rookie season to their second year. While he saw an increase in attempts per game and number of completions in 2016, he also saw his interception percentage increase from 2.8% to 3.2%. Furthermore, his ranking of 23rd in the league in completion percentage last season shows how he was not a great decision maker nor does he have elite accuracy to compliment his strong arm.
It does seem as if many of the same issues still exist when fantasy football pundits were citing last season as a ‘breakout year’ for Jameis Winston. Looking ahead to 2017, Pro Football Focus ranks the Buccaneers’ offensive line 30th in the NFL, a sign that we could see a similar throwing volume complimented by several turnovers. Add to that the fact that his top two wide-outs in Evans and Jackson both had catch rates lower than 60% in 2016 and you have a recipe for frustration when putting him in your starting lineup.
As a tenth round pick, Winston certainly offers much better value than the previously mentioned quarterback on this list. Do I think he has a great chance to improve on his QB-16 finish in 2016? Absolutely. Do I think he has immense bust potential? Absolutely. Based on his ADP and positional rank, I’ll say that he will boom only because the potential of improved quarterback play combined with a plethora of weapons on offense could bump Winston into a top eight fantasy scorer. A warning though, the definition of insanity is repeating the same action over and over again while expecting different results. Just don’t be shocked if the tires on the Bucs' offense spin out in Winston’s third NFL season.
Final Verdict: Boom
Andy Dalton (QB, CIN)
Current ADP: 13.10
Position Rank: QB-18
The past two years have been day and night seasons for Dalton who was performing at an MVP caliber level in 2015 before a broken thumb derailed a top eight fantasy quarterback finish. Despite throwing for fewer touchdowns passes in 16 games, Dalton still proved to be a decent option as QB-12 last season and is being described as one of the best late round values for the upcoming fantasy season.
What exactly does Dalton need to be a relevant fantasy quarterback in 2017? To put it bluntly, drafting him comes with recognizing that he will have a tough time transcending the talent around him. His return to full health in the 2016 season was unfortunately followed by injuries to both wide receiver A.J. Green and tight end Tyler Eifert, who missed a combined 18 games. Prior to Green's Week 10 injury, Dalton had Pro Football Focus’s 7th best QB rating (93.13) compared to his 18th ranked 86.73 with Green’s absence. The good news for potential Dalton owners is that Green only has a 12.6% chance of re-injury next season, though Eifert has a greater probability at 70.3%.
The Cincinnati Bengals went out of their way to provide Dalton with quality weapons by drafting wide receiver John Ross and running back Joe Mixon in the first two rounds of the 2017 NFL Draft. However, the losses of Pro Bowl left tackle Andrew Whitworth and fixture at right guard Kevin Zeitler make it especially confusing as to how effective this offense will shape up to be. Considering that Dalton has been noted as one of the worst quarterbacks under pressure in the NFL, a bottom of the barrel offensive line is guaranteed to limit his ceiling and force bad throws every now and again.
With all that being said, I simply can’t justify Andy Dalton’s QB-18 ranking behind guys like Eli Manning and Dak Prescott. His 2017 offensive weapons are debatably some of the best he’s ever had and despite the potential problems with having a sub-par offensive line, he still has a relatively safe floor for a late round quarterback. I’m not saying he is guaranteed to repeat his stellar 2015 and you definitely shouldn’t reach any further than the thirteenth round, but Dalton has plenty of potential to rebound at a discounted cost on draft day.
Final Verdict: Boom
