RADIO
The term sleeper is overused and commonly confused in fantasy sports. Too many people confuse the concept of a player being undervalued (i.e. a player getting drafted in the seventh round that is going to return fifth round value) versus a player being a true sleeper.
When I think sleeper, I think Rip Van Winkle. I think of somebody that has been off the radar (or maybe has never been on the radar) for so long that people aren't even thinking about them. When talking about sleepers, especially deep sleepers in league specific fantasy setups, we are looking for players that will be drafted in the very late rounds of your fantasy drafts.
The following three players have the opportunity to add value to your fantasy team in the late rounds and have the potential to breakout and be a main cog that helps carry you to a fantasy league championship.
Justin Smoak - 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
For those who have joined me on twitter or in live chats here on RotoBaller, you already know how I feel about Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak. Pedigree matters, and if any of these three players has pedigree it's Smoak.
He came up with the Texas Rangers and before the 2010 season was ranked that the #13 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. Progressing through the minors, Smoak was known as a prototypical power-hitting corner infielder who was in a potentially great situation to fit those skills in the HR friendly Park in Arlington. Unfortunately for Smoak, his potential value was so high that he was included as the main piece of a 2010 Cliff Lee trade. The Rangers shipped their potential young power-hitting stud to Seattle and the spacious confines of Safeco Field where homers go to die.
For his career, almost all of which has been played as a member of the Mariners, Smoak puts about 42% of his balls in play in the air. Of those fly-balls, less than 10% were leaving the park while at home in Safeco field while approximately 15% cleared the wall on the road. This largely explains why Smoak has hit .242 with 43 career home runs on the road while struggling to a .205 average with just 31 home runs in his career home games.
The good news is that Smoak has finally moved on from the deep power alleys of Safeco Field to a much more hitter friendly ballpark in Toronto. Expect Smoak to perform more like the hitter he has been on the road this season. Combine that production uptick with the home run friendly ideology of the Blue Jays and Smoak could suddenly be a late round source of power, something that is becoming harder to find in the present day MLB. Steamer, a baseball projection system, has Smoak hitting 14 HR with a .238 AVG this season in just 349 AB. The key here is playing time, and if Smoak can get just a few more at-bats he is a 20 HR candidate which is almost impossible to find in the late rounds of AL only leagues.
Ricky Nolasco - SP, Minnesota Twins
There is no way around it. Ricky Nolasco was not good last year and frankly hasn't lived up to expectations his whole career. Nolasco has only delivered an above average ERA+ (an ERA rating adjusted to the player's ballpark where 100 indicates an average rating) twice in nine seasons. However, one of those above average seasons was just two years ago. Nolasco is now presumably healthy again and finds himself in a pitcher friendly park.
Nolasco's "stuff" has declined since he arrived on the MLB scene which explains his declining strikeout rate, but it's his situation with the Twins that has me intrigued. Nolasco's most glaring weakness throughout his career has been his penchant for giving up the long ball. This continued to be an issue last season. Nolasco was much better at home in that regard, giving up just nine HR as opposed to the 13 he allowed on the road.
This shouldn't change as Target Field is one the toughest parks in the bigs to hit HR, which will help Nolasco keep that HR total down. Additionally, even though Nolasco sported an ERA over 5.00 last season, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was just 4.30. In other words, Nolasco was quite unlucky last season. Expect that luck to change this year. Nolasco won't quite repeat teammate Phil Hughes' success from 2014, but a season similar to Hughes' 3.52 ERA with 16 wins is certainly attainable for Nolasco.
Robert Refsnyder - 2B, New York Yankees
I don't think the Yankees brass would ever admit to rebuilding, and I don't believe the fan-base even believes in such a word. However, if the Yankees' moves in the offseason tell us anything, it's that they are certainly looking to get younger. Additions such as Nathan Eovaldi and SS Didi Gregorius seem to be the first steps of the youth movement. Allowing Refsnyder to get his feet wet in the big leagues could be the next.
Refsnyder is a hit-first second-baseman who is a converted outfielder. He triple slashed .318/.387/.497 while showing some power, hitting 14 HR between Double-A and Triple-A last season. His role with the club is uncertain. He's hitting .321 in the spring and all reports have been positive, but he is still not on the 40-man roster. Keep in mind, the Yankees did bring back light-hitting Stephen Drew as the expected Opening Day starter at second.
Regardless of where he starts the year, Refsnyder is going to matter at the MLB level this season. If he doesn't break spring training with the big league team, make sure to pay close attention to the situation and snatch him up as soon as the Yankees give him the job. He's going to be special.
