RADIO
Kevin analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 9 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
It's Tuesday so you know we've got you another edition of Fantasy Baseball Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs. There are few feelings better in fantasy baseball than taking a gamble on a guy as a breakout that's for real. There are few feelings worse than being sold on a guy and then watching him fall flat on his face shortly after you plug him into your lineup.
We're here to help you try and avoid that nasty feeling. That's why we breakdown as much as you can think of and use the advanced stats to help us project who's for real and who isn't.
So with that said, let's dive into another group of hitters that are breaking out. This week, we'll evaluate a quartet of hitters - Jake Burger, Casey Schmitt, Ryan Waldschmidt and Travis Bazzana. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Monday, May 25th.
Featured Promo: Save 50% the regular price with discount code SPRING, for a limited time. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, DFS cheat sheets, Lineup Optimizers, betting/prop picks, and exclusive content from Nick Mariano and Eric Cross! GAIN ACCESS NOW
Jake Burger, 1B, Texas Rangers
2026 Stats: .731 OPS, 117 OPS+, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 23 R, 1 SB
It was a pretty ugly start to the season for Jake Burger. He was hitting worse than he did last season for the Rangers and just wasn't looking like the player he was in Chicago and Miami.
But May has been a much, much different month for him. He's posted a .929 OPS this month and is starting to look like a guy you really need to watch out for at the plate. He's helping drive the Rangers' offense, but we must ask the question as we always do: Is he a breakout, or a fake out? Let's dive in.
One wasn’t enough 😮💨
Jake Burger makes it back-to-back.@RangersSNtv | #AllforTX pic.twitter.com/XilfNr0wCv
— Victory+ (@victoryplustv) May 20, 2026
First we've got to jump into the plate approach. He is seeing his strikeout rate increase slightly from 24.7% last year to 26.7% this year. He's also seeing his walk rate nearly double from 3.2% to 6.3% this season.
The jump in the walk rate is great to see but it still ranks in just the 18th percentile. The strikeout rate isn't great either, but overall it's not at a dangerous level and the increase in walk rate greatly outweighs the increase here.
Jumping to the batted ball profile and we're seeing some interesting changes from season to season. The ground-ball rate is up a decent amount from 39.1% to 45.3% while the fly-ball rate is down from 44.4% to 36.5%.
The ground-ball rate would normally be concerning to me but, interestingly enough, he was getting his worst results last season when his ground-ball rate was the lowest of his career. The 45.3% rate this year is the highest of his career, but it's also much more in line with who he normally is.
There is, however, a solid jump in HR/FB rate. That's up from 13.6% this season to 20.0% this year. This would be the second highest mark of his career, only behind his 2023 season when he posted a 25.4% rate with both the White Sox and Marlins.
The 2023 season is actually a pretty solid barometer for this year as the rates are very similar. He hit for a 119 OPS+ that season with 34 homers. FanGraphs is projecting close to 20 more homers for him this season so getting close to that 30 homer mark would appear to be realistic.
Checking in on his BABIP we can see that it's coming in at .283 on the season. That's essentially exactly who he's been over the past four seasons so there's no reason to take anything additional away from this stat.
Now for his Baseball Savant page so we can check in on any additional luck he's getting. He's currently got a .322 wOBA that's paired with a .310 xwOBA. That xwOBA is in the 37th percentile.
If we go back to the 2023 season as our barometer, based on the batted ball profile, he had a .349 wOBA that season paired with a .359 xwOBA. So where is this difference coming from?
Order up! #AllForTX pic.twitter.com/woj3hXFp5d
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) May 24, 2026
It's not from his hard-hit percentage. That's sitting at 49.6% and matches his 2023 season. That sits in the 89th percentile, so it's getting ripped at a high rate.
But the barrel rate? This is where we start to see the differences. He's barreling it at a 10.2% rate. That's in the 67th percentile, which is good! But it's also the lowest mark of his career. This explains the differences we're seeing and why xwOBA is projecting negative regression.
As we look at the pitch mix, we can see positive regression in both of the top two pitches that Burger faces. Those would be four-seamers (.216 wOBA, .273 xwOBA) and sliders (.207 wOBA, .235 xwOBA). But, as you can see, neither xwOBA is a high floor.
If you're surprised by the four-seamers numbers, don't be. He has struggled in both seasons as a Ranger against four-seamers. He was masterful against them in Miami, but either pitchers have made adjustments against him or there's something about Globe Life Field that gets to Burger.
He's been really good against sinkers, though. Burger is posting a .527 wOBA against them to go along with a .430 xwOBA. Yes, that's negative regression, but give me a .430 floor any day.
The rest of Burger's pitches he faces he's got solid numbers against. The only two true weaknesses are unfortunately the two pitches he sees the most often.
Verdict: We are certainly seeing Burger return to his norms here. Who he was in April isn't who he should have been and May is much closer to who the Rangers expected him to be when they signed him in 2025. I think the positive regression he's seeing has been coming since last season and that's a very good thing.
But ultimately I do think he tops out right around where he's at, which is a 117 OPS+. That's still a very solid number to post, though, and that makes him a buy. At 26% rostered in Yahoo! leagues he should be available on your waiver wire. At the very least, you're getting additional depth on your bench and that's never a bad thing.
Casey Schmitt, IF/DH, San Francisco Giants
2026 Stats: .895 OPS, 155 OPS+, 11 HR, 29 RBI, 25 R, 3 SB
It may have taken a little bit of time for Schmitt to get things figured out at the Major League level but it certainly seems like he's gotten it down. He leads San Francisco in homers, RBI and OPS+. Sure, the offense in San Fran hasn't quite clicked yet, but leading in three separate categories like that is impressive.
From a fantasy perspective you may find it hard to trust a hitter who called Oracle Park home, but Schmitt's certainly making you more than curious about adding him to your roster. So is he a breakout or a fake out? Let's dig in.
Casey Schmitt clubs his 5th home run in his last 8 games 💪 pic.twitter.com/PREzxGhCdH
— MLB (@MLB) May 24, 2026
Starting with his plate approach, it's clear to see he's trying to put more balls in play. The strikeout rate is down from last season, dropping to 19.7% from last year's 23.9%. But the walk rate is also down, hovering at 3.8% after posting a 7.8% rate last season.
That walk rate is only in the fifth percentile. He's getting away with it for now but I'd really love to see Schmitt draw more walks. Part of the issue is a high chase rate (15th percentile) but that's just been part of his game his whole career. It won't be fixed any time soon but will need to be something he addresses further down the line.
Onto the batted ball profile. The ground-ball rate is up to 34.8% this year compared to 31.9% last year. That increase isn't terrible, especially since the ground-ball rate is already so low.
The more important factor is that his fly-ball rate is up to 51.1% from last season's 42.7% rate. That's the highest mark of his career and shows that a concerted effort to get the ball in the air more is helping him to be much more productive. His 15.9% HR/FB rate is just below his 2024 marks, coincidentally the only other season in the pros where he's posted an OPS+ above 100.
He posted a .315 BABIP so far, so there may be a touch of luck happening. He's traditionally been below the .300 mark so that may point towards some negative regression coming, but at .315 I don't think it's worryingly high.
As we head to his Baseball Savant page we can see a decent amount of red, which is a solid sign. His wOBA of .387, though, is paired with an xwOBA of .363. That shouldn't be concerning, though, because that's a solid xwOBA that's in the 80th percentile.
Those are being backed up by a hard-hit rate in the 75th percentile and a barrel rate in the 89th percentile. Absolutely solid numbers to have for any hitter.
Casey wastes no time putting us on the board 👏 pic.twitter.com/Hnb20XQ5iM
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) May 17, 2026
As we move on down to the pitch mix that pitchers attack him with we can see some solid things out of the three pitches he sees most. The first would be four-seamers, which he's hitting for a .316 wOBA to go along with a .315 xwOBA. Given he sees them 27.8% of the time, it's great to see the numbers are true and not at a number that would be a cause for concern.
The next two pitches show us positive regression. Those would be sinkers (.367 wOBA, .449 xwOBA) and sliders (.226 wOBA, .292 xwOBA). I don't love the floor for sliders, but positive regression is positive regression. Tie that in with sinkers and we've got some really solid numbers for the top three pitches.
The rest of the pitch mix all features some really nice floors with a mix of both positive and negative regression. These four pitches are likely where the negative regression xwOBA is predicting is coming from, but the lowest floor is a .332 xwOBA. That's something I'm signing up for every day, especially when two of the top three pitches he faces are expecting positive regression.
Verdict: I'm certainly recommending Schmitt as a buy. His hard-hit rate and barrel rate make him a really solid player to back, even in a risky hitting environment like Oracle Park. I also think that as other players on the Giants start to wake up that he'll get more RBI chances and will be driven in more.
The only aspect of his game I'm not liking right now is that really low walk rate. If he can see that improve, while also keeping the same quality of contact, then he'll be a really solid all-around hitter. Schmitt's on 61% of Yahoo! rosters right now. If he's on your waiver wire then it'd be wise to snag him up immediately.
Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2026 Stats: .881 OPS, 149 OPS+, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 9 R, 5 SB
A little bit newer to the scene, Waldschmidt is starting to make an immediate impact for Arizona. He was promoted in early May after Alek Thomas was designated for assignment.
So far he's shown some solid flashes with the bat, slashing .353/.411/.471 in 16 games. He's looking good, but that's a small sample size. So we've got to ask what we always ask: Is he a breakout or a fake out? Let's see what the stats say.
Ryan Waldschmidt laces an RBI double for the @Dbacks!
MLB's No. 33 prospect has reached base in all three of his plate appearances. pic.twitter.com/vGHVBBRTqz
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 19, 2026
For his plate approach, he's clocking in with a 28.1% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate. In the minors Waldschmidt generally had a walk rate of 10% or better and a strikeout rate below 20%.
His numbers at Triple-A Reno this season were a 12.2% walk rate and a 24.4% strikeout rate. I would say the swing in both numbers are simply an adjustment to the Major League level and should improve with more time, but I wouldn't expect the strikeout rate to dip below 20% any time soon.
As we look at the batted ball profile we're looking at something that's certainly unique, but is who he's been the past two seasons in the minors. His ground-ball rate is at 28.6%, his fly-ball rate is at 34.3% and his line drive rate is at an incredible 37.1%.
Some of that is the small sample size, sure, but as I mentioned this is who he's been in the minors. The line drive rate was at 28.9% in Triple-A this season and it was at 31.3% in 300 PAs in Double-A Amarillo last season. The dude just keeps hitting liners.
While I do think there may be some worry here that the line drive rate will drop to a more traditional 20% level soon, there's at least the positive that the ball is staying off the ground. Balls in the air are generally a lot more effective than grounders, so the worry here is somewhat limited.
As you would guess with a high line drive rate guy, the BABIP is ridiculously high. It's coming in at .514 so far. That's obviously going to drop with time, but the question is how far down will it drop. Throughout all levels of the minors in 2025 he posted a .334 BABIP. It should be noted that's over a 600 PA sample size, so we should be looking at a level above .300 that's realistic for him.
At Triple-A this season it was up to .382, which still feels high. I would assume it levels out to around a .320 level or so as pitchers adjust to Waldschmidt.
As we look at his Baseball Savant page we can see that they're projecting negative regression for him. That's not surprising for a high line drive guy. He's got a .392 wOBA that's paired with a .349 xwOBA. But even at .349 that's something I'd sign up for from any hitter.
Anyone order an XBH? pic.twitter.com/PQv4u11XVT
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) May 24, 2026
The hard-hit rate is probably what gives me the most pause so far. He's got a 37.1% hard-hit rate which would rank in the 30th percentile. But that's also paired with an 11.4% barrel rate. That's similar to Teoscar Hernandez's 11.6% rate that ranks in the 73rd percentile.
So that makes it clear that when he gets it he can really get it, but the hard-hit rate needs to come up. That would also provide a little more confidence that the line drives he's getting aren't just soft line drives that are finding holes.
For the pitch mix it's hard to trust the numbers so far with him seeing any single pitch in no more than 11 PAs so far. But he's showing strengths against four-seamers, cutters and sliders. The four-seam and slider combo is especially important to me given how prominent that combo is. He's struggled against sweepers, but we really need more time before we can ascertain anything real from pitch mix.
Verdict: The verdict here is going to be driven off his rostered percentage. He's on 29% of rosters in Yahoo! leagues and that certainly makes him a buy. At the very least you know he's going to get plenty of opportunities in Arizona's offense with him becoming an everyday starter. As that lineup heats up more he's going to get more RBI chances and more chances to be driven in, especially if he stays in the nine spot and Ketel Marte gets hot.
But approach it with some caution. He's going to be a great piece of depth for you to add, but I'm a little worried about the high line drive rate being tied together with a lower hard-hit rate. He's never been a huge HR guy so if pitchers find a way to limit him to soft contact then it will zap his value. Get what you can out of him now and see what he develops into over the next month or so.
Travis Bazzana, 2B, Cleveland Guardians
2026 Stats: .824 OPS, 135 OPS+, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 11 R, 7 SB
It feels like every week that I'm writing my MLB Power Rankings that I am continually pointing out how the Guardians just continue to find ways to win with names that are not household names. We've already highlighted Chase DeLauter and Kyle Manzardo in this series this year and now it's time for another Guardian.
Bazzana is a 23-year-old rookie that made it to the majors in just over two years. He's been incredible consistent with his wRC+ through the minors and his current 135 OPS+ mirrors that production. So it seems like things are lining up for him to be a breakout, but we should double-check that he's not a fake out, right?
My goodness 😳
Travis Bazzana sends one to the second deck 😮 pic.twitter.com/8DSqCx5iDP
— MLB (@MLB) May 24, 2026
The rookie's plate approach is something I'm already really happy with. He's got a 17.0% strikeout rate to go along with a 13.0% walk rate. That walk rate ranks in the 82nd percentile, matching the Marlins' Jakob Marsee (who we broke down last week).
The strikeout rate is great as long as the contact is also good, but I'm much more impressed with the walk rate, especially from a rookie. Controlling the zone is so important and you know I love to harp on the importance of a high walk rate and it's significance in breaking out of slumps. He's been a high walk guy throughout every level of the minors as well, so this is a very positive thing to see.
As we move onto the batted ball profile Bazzana is posting a 42.4% ground-ball rate, 37.9% fly-ball rate and a 19.7% line drive rate. Those numbers all are relatively normal for the major league level and they profile very closely to Shohei Ohtani and Ben Rice's rates this season.
His BABIP this season is coming in at a .338 number. In the minors last season he posted a .322 number and at Triple-A Columbus this year it was up to .373 in 117 PA. I still think the .338 BABIP is a bit high throughout the season, but a number above .300 won't be all that surprising.
As we head to Baseball Savant we see his .371 wOBA is paired with a .347 xwOBA. So negative regression is on hand, sure, but that xwOBA puts him in the same category as Xavier Edwards, Bryan Reynold and Wilyer Abreu with an xwOBA in the 73rd percentile. You'd sign up for that all day.
Travis Bazzana lifts off for his 2nd career homer! pic.twitter.com/TOFSCYSn1A
— MLB (@MLB) May 19, 2026
Moving onto the hard-hit rate and barrel rate is where things may start to get concerning, though. His hard-hit rate is sitting at 34.8% and his barrel rate is at 4.5%. Those two numbers are very close to what Geraldo Perdomo of the Diamondbacks is doing and he's in the 21st percentile for hard-hit rate and the 17th percentile for barrel rate.
This is where I think I have the most concern for Bazzana. The batted ball profile isn't an issue at all, but you combined the low hard-hit rate with a high BABIP and it starts to seem like he may just be finding holes. It's not the worst thing, but this does make me a bit worried about how long he can keep this up.
As with Waldschmidt, it's still a bit hard to trust the numbers we're seeing on the pitch mix he faces but there's enough to at least get a decent idea of what he's good against. Four-seamers, sliders and sinkers are the top three pitches he sees and he's been very good against each. All have an xwOBA of .325 or greater against. He's got a .472 xwOBA against sliders and a .414 xwOBA against sinkers.
Obviously take these numbers with a grain of salt due to the small sample size, but it's certainly a positive that the top three pitches he sees all have solid expected numbers. We need to see more, especially as pitchers adjust to him, but it's a positive start for sure.
Verdict: I'm viewing Bazzana in a similar vein to Waldschmidt in that he's a buy, but you need to approach it with some caution. However, I think there's a lot more confidence in what Bazzana is doing thanks to his high walk rate and a solid batted ball profile. I worry about the hard-hit rate and barrel rate coming back to bite him soon, but he's going to still be getting on base thanks to his excellent eye at the plate.
Bazzana is rostered in 44% of Yahoo! leagues, so it's basically a coin flip as to whether he's on your waiver wire or not. If he is, snag him up immediately and ride the hot streak. Don't bank your future on his production but if he's able to find ways to hit the ball harder more often then you're going to have someone that's a very valuable piece to your roster.
More Fantasy Baseball Advice
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
