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Today's best MLB strikeout prop bets and pitcher K props for Monday, May 25. Thunder Dan's expert MLB player prop picks, betting odds, and advanced stat analysis to help you win.
Happy Memorial Day, friends. Baseball, burgers, hot dogs, and maybe even some beers all go perfectly together as we kick off summer and remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice to protect our great nation. The weather is finally set to warm up a bit here on the East Coast, and we get a bunch of day baseball on a loaded MLB Memorial Day slate.
I'll offer up a few of my top picks here today, but you'll need to grab a premium pass to see all five of my favorite K prop wagers. Our top MLB writers are posting their favorite props on Discord daily, so gain additional access to those picks with a premium RotoBaller membership.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, May 25, 2026. Odds will change during the day, so lock in those bets as early as possible and always shop for the best number across multiple sportsbooks or prediction markets! If you love betting on baseball, check out our premium betting tools here at RotoBaller and sign up to access all our daily premium content!
High-Confidence Strikeout Picks
All odds were current as of 7:00 AM on Monday, 5/25/26
Trey Yesavage OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-124 FanDuel)
We start with the Toronto rookie on the mound tonight at home against the Miami Marlins. Yesavage has looked dominant lately, striking out six or more hitters in each of his last four starts while allowing two earned runs or fewer. He's lowered his ERA to 1.07 on the season with a 28.7% K% and 14.6%.
His splitter remains filthy, and his fastball has some of the best induced vertical break (over 20 inches on average) thanks to his extreme "over the top" delivery (65-degree arm angle). He'll mix in just enough sliders to keep hitters honest, but the four-seamer/splitter pairing is incredibly hard on hitters.
Trey Yesavage's 2Ks in the 4th. pic.twitter.com/hJhcjRFNCD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 21, 2026
Miami's team strikeout rate is pretty low against righties, but there are some very high-K bats in this lineup that are beginning to drag it down, with Owen Caissie striking out over 40% of the time against RHP this season, Connor Norby sitting at 33%, and Joe Mack at 31%.
They also have been pretty bad in terms of run production lately, with just a 78 wRC+ vs. RHP over the last two weeks. Kyle Stowers continues to slump, leaving Liam Hicks as the only real big left-handed bat that is a real threat to Yesavage.
Shane McClanahan OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-115 Novig)
I'm not sure how you feel about targeting the same team with the same starting pitcher two games in a row. I don't love doing it, but I also try to evaluate every matchup independently and not get tied down by strict rules. Sure, sometimes the opposing team has a better read on the pitcher the second time they see them in a short time period, but there are also plenty of times when the pitcher has success in both starts, too.
I worry a little less about Baltimore adjusting to McClanahan based on how he's pitched over the last month. Since he no longer has a 100-mph fastball in his arsenal, he's been really utilizing his entire arsenal of pitches, mixing his plus changeup, slider, and big curveball effectively.
Shane McClanahan, Wicked 84mph Curveball. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/KpYviavxm0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 6, 2026
Baltimore has been flat out bad against LHP over the most recent two-week sample with a 69 wRC+ (fifth-worst) and a 27.4% K% (also fifth-worst). McClanahan is home today with the winds blowing in from left-center. He has the type of good stuff (25% K% and 12.4% SwStr%) to get to six strikeouts, which he's now done in three of his last five starts.
Michael Wacha OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-150 FanDuel)
This is my "freebie" pick of the day, not only because I usually only include two free picks ahead of the paywall, but also because it feels like free money, too. Wacha has been nearly automatic for five strikeouts this year, hitting this prop in eight of his 10 starts, and is facing a Yankees team that has the second-worst K% over the last two weeks to RHP (26.3%).
Wacha struck out six Yankees back in April, and I think he's a lock for at least five today, which is why I'm okay eating all this juice from the books.
Value Plays and "Under" Targets
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