MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (4/9/2026)

April 9, 2026

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/9/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Munetaka Murakami, Colt Keith, and Maikel Garcia.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to our daily home run prop bets! Thunder Dan got us on the board with two home runs in yesterday's article, and now I'm tasked with getting you guys some winners as well. Thursdays are usually tougher with fewer games on the board, but I still think there are a few good spots we can attack.

I'll have four home run spots for y'all in this article. At the time of writing this, there isn't much in the way of odds, so always make sure to shop around and find better spots, as more books tend to get props up early in the AM.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, April 9, 2026.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (4/9/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, April 9.

Munetaka Murakami OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+440 FanDuel)

The first spot I'm attacking is against Seth Lugo and the Royals. Seth Lugo was a great spot last season for targeting home runs, given his pretty wicked splits against lefties. The lefties crushed him last season to the tune of a 2.31 HR/9, with a SLG of .512. He has eased up a bit so far this season, but I think it's just the calm before the storm. All nine of Lugo's hits given up this season have been to lefties.

Last season, he had a 45.2% HardHit% and an 11.1% Barrel%. That Barrel% is the second highest on the slate, only behind Chase Dollander. The wind is sitting around 13-15 mph, blowing out of the stadium right now. This makes for a great spot, as I'm going with the power lefty in Munetaka Murakami.

Murakami has been off to an electric start to his rookie campaign with four home runs already on the season. Three of which came off RHP. He currently leads the team in Barrel% with a 19.1% and is sitting pretty with a 52.4% HardHit%. At +440 on FanDuel, I think we are getting some solid value here.

Munetaka Murakami hits a MOONSHOT for his first Major League home run 👏 pic.twitter.com/rU8MOXna9l

— MLB (@MLB) March 26, 2026

In a limited time, Murakami has shown the ability to hit the four-seamer and the cutter really well, both of which are thrown quite a bit by Lugo. The only downside to going against Lugo is the massive arsenal he throws. Last season, he threw 10 different pitch types. If Murakami gets thrown anything heater-related, though, I expect it to be seeing the other side of the fence.

Maikel Garcia OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+730 DraftKings)

I'm actually going to keep it in the same guy, but go to the other side of the game. Anthony Kay, the long-time reliever, looks to be converted into a long opener or perhaps even a starter. He hasn't quite had the return I'm sure he wishes he had, with not being able to go five innings in either game started this season.

Like Lugo, Kay has had all of his hits come off one side of the plate. This time being the righties who have crushed him so far for six hits and four walks, including two home runs. That being said, if the Royals don't get it done against Kay. The White Sox have the sixth-worst bullpen ERA to start the season. This could get ugly quickly if Kay isn't able to limit damage early on.

I debated going to Bobby Witt Jr. here to get his first home run of the season, but he didn't do much against lefties last season, with only one homer on the year. So I'm going with Maikel Garcia, who is hitting the ball extremely well. The leadoff hitter has 14 hits, including a massive home run a few days ago. Against a lefty, too. To start the season, Garcia has been demolishing lefties, with an 18.2% Barrel% and 54.5% HardHit%.

Maikel Garcia sends his first home run into the bullpen 💪 pic.twitter.com/S2HliZ7W4m

— MLB (@MLB) April 5, 2026

Garcia isn't known for his power, but he is on a heater right now. In his last 12 ABs against lefties, he has six hits, one for a home run, and two doubles.  In those 12 ABs, he is averaging a 98.8 mph exit velocity. There is too much going right for this prop to be over +700; maybe it's more of a longshot bet, but I have to get in on the leadoff at this price.

Jackson Merrill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (N/A)

I usually like attacking Dollander at home, but he actually had a nice outing against the Phillies at home. His first start of the season in Toronto was a different story. He gave up three home runs and was out after just four innings. The lefties had his number last season with a 2.09 HR/9 and a .502 SLG. His overall Barrel% of 12.5% and HardHit% of 40.3% aren't nice to look at either.

I haven't played much or any Padres this season, but I think taking one of the lefties here against Dollander is going to make for a great play. I was thinking about taking Gavin Sheets, as he did well for me last season, but the numbers just haven't quite been there this season for me to confidently take him in this spot.

That being said, I like Jackson Merrill to get his third of the season. He had a pretty poor day yesterday against the Pirates, but I like him to bounce back here against Dollander. He has six ABs with exit velos of 98+ mph in his last 12 ABs against righties. In the season, he is second on the team in Barrel% at 14.3% and has a HardHit% of 42.9% against righties. I also like that his K% has been low.

The Four-Seamer is the main pitch to keep an eye on with Dollander, but he does throw the Curveball and Changeup quite a bit. The good thing for us is that last season, Merrill was hitting all these pitches extremely well. I'm expecting Merrill to get his third homer of the season in a good spot against the Rockies.

Note: It hasn't been announced who is pitching for the Rockies yet, but it is projected to be Chase Dollander.

Colt Keith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 Fanatics)

Colt Keith is bound to get one out of the park sooner or later, and I think this is the perfect spot for him to get one. Mick Abel had a solid rookie season, but he did struggle against lefties last season. It's where seven of his eight home runs came from in a limited time. He is sitting on a 3.0 HR/9 against lefties, with them hitting a .545 SLG off him.

Overall, his Barrel% wasn't terrible at 8.5%, but a 48.3% HardHit% is a bit more concerning. So far this season, he has been solid and hasn't given up a home run. That being said, he has given up a .688 SLG and .188 ISO to lefties so far.

Keith has been a massive bright spot for this Tigers offense. He leads the team in hits against RHP with 13. He has a 15.4% Barrel% and 57.7 HardHit%, both of which are top 3 on the team. He has been crushing the ball and nearly had a home run last night that came up just short. That didn't stop him from hitting it nearly 105 mph! Across his last 15 ABs, he has an average Exit Velocity of 99 mph!

I don't know that there is anyone more due than Colt Keith right now. The only downside is he could get pinch-hit late in the game, but let's hope we can get a home run early and avoid any chance of that. The odds are too nice to pass up someone who is mashing the ball right now.

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