MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/11/2025)

September 11, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/11/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Bryan Reynolds, Jose Lowe, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jo Adell.

We have nine games this Thursday in MLB. With football back tonight, we are still pushing out baseball content over here at RotoBaller. Although I will be locked into the football game tonight, our attention will shift to some baseball as we continue to crush home run bets. Why not parlay some home runs with touchdowns from our excellent content providers for the NFL?

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, September 11, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/11/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, September 11:

• Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
• Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
• Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels

Bryan Reynolds OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+576 DraftKings)

Our first home run bet of the day comes in an afternoon game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards between the Orioles and the Pirates. If you have read my article before, you know that I tend to always hit the first home run bet when I bet on the first game of the day, and here we are again.

Southpaw Cade Povich will toe the rubber for the Orioles. He has struggled with giving up the long ball over his last handful of starts. He has a 1.83 HR/9 and a 42.1% FB in the previous thirty days. He gives up power to both sides of the plate, but our focus will be right-handed bats today, which he has allowed 12 home runs, a .442 SLG, .168 ISO, 14.0% Brl, and a 49.1% Hard Hit.

Bryan Reynolds is a switch-hitter but has shown more power from the right-hand side of the plate. This season against left-hand pitching, Reynolds is slashing .246/.327/.446 with six home runs. He has a 23.5% Brl and a 54.1% Hard Hit. He is red hot. Over the last seven days, he has a .500 SLG and a .200 ISO.

Our Players of the Week 🏴‍☠️

Pitcher: Paul Skenes

Hitter: Bryan Reynolds pic.twitter.com/0jNAMlzWoG

— Bucco Bantr (@BuccoBantr) September 8, 2025

Povich has allowed eight of his home runs to righties off his four-seam fastball and his curveball. Reynolds has a .559 SLG and a .265 ISO against four seamers and a .357 SLG and a .214 ISO against curveballs. He hits the primary two pitches well from Povich.

If there's one bet you feature today, it's this one because I am a first game whisperer.

Josh Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+520 DraftKings)

I love both the Lowe brothers here, but instead of writing both up, I am going to side with Josh Lowe in this spot. I don't mind betting both of them because they both can leave the yard this afternoon.

Shane Smith will toe the rubber for the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. Smith has been a decent pitcher for this White Sox team and possesses good strikeout stuff, but is also prone to home runs. Over his last two starts, Smith has a 2.38 HR/9, 59.3% FB, and a 44.4% Hard Hit.

Josh Lowe is on fire at the moment. Over his last 23 plate appearances, he is slashing .300/.391/.650 with a 1.041 OPS and two home runs. He has hit right-hand pitching well this season, as he has a .458 SLG, 43.0% hard Hit, and 10 home runs.

Smith features three primary pitches against left-handed bats in 2025: a four-seamer, a changeup, and a curveball. Josh Lowe crushes all three pitches from right-handed pitchers. He has a .475 SLG and a .230 ISO against the four-seam, a .579 SLG and a .263 ISO against the changeup, and a .606 SLG and a .303 ISO against the curveball.

Which Lowe leaves the yard tonight? I bet it’s both.

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings)

I am going right back to the well tonight with Fernando Tatis Jr. after he let me down on Tuesday night in this very article. I also love his teammate, Ramon Laureano, in this spot, who was featured in my article on Tuesday.

This game will take place at PETCO Park as the Rockies are coming to town for game one of their series. McCade Brown will be getting the rock for the Rockies. On the season, he has allowed a 7.86 xFIP, 1.93 HR/9, 41.7% FB, and a 44.4% Hard Hit. The Rockies’ bullpen over their last thirty days has allowed a 1.57 HR/9 and a 38.4% Hard Hit.

Brown in a small sample size has shown some serious reverse splits. He has allowed a .739 SLG, .348 ISO, 14.3% Brl, and a 42.9% Hard Hit to right-handed hitters this season.

SDP - Fernando Tatis Jr. 3-run HR (20)

📏 441 ft | 💨 107.6 mph | 📐 28°
⚾️ 84.7 mph slider (COL - RHP McCade Brown)
🏟️ Out in 30/30 MLB parks

SDP (6) @ COL (0)
🔺 2nd#ForTheFaithful pic.twitter.com/oYtghDxgig

— MLB Home Runs🚀 (@MLBHRs_) September 7, 2025

Tatis is heating up, as I mentioned on Tuesday. Over the last seven days, he is slashing .231/.376/.462 with a .737 OPS. He has three home runs during that span including another one last night. Tatis has handled right-hand pitching well in 2025. He has a .470 SLG, 15.5% Brl, 53.6% Hard Hit, and 17 home runs against righties.

The reason I love Tatis again here in this spot is because of how he handles the mix of Brown. Whenever there is a right-hand pitcher who mainly features sliders, Tatis has to be in consideration, as well as his teammate Lauerano.

Brown has allowed both home runs this season against his slider, which has a 1.167 SLG and a .667 ISO against it. He features a sinker as well. Tatis Jr. has a .465 SLG, .254 ISO, and five home runs against the slider and a .553 SLG, .159 ISO, and three home runs against the sinker.

PETCO is not our ideal park to bet home runs, but Tatis is facing another slider-heavy righty, and I don't expect him to fail us twice in one week.

Jo Adell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings)

My last home run bet of the night comes at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, which is another park that I don't usually love to target for home runs, but here we are.

Bryce Miller will toe the rubber for the Mariners, and he will be our target in this spot. Miller has allowed a 4.69 xFIP, 2.95 HR/9, 41.8% FB, and a 50.7% Hard Hit over the last thirty days. Lefties have been hotter as of late against Miller, but on the season, I like targeting him with righties. Right-handed hitters in 2025 have a .453 SLG, .176 ISO, and a 50.8% Hard Hit against Miller.

Jo Adell has been incredible this season and leads the Angels with 35 long balls. 28 of those have come against right-handed pitching as he has a .486 SLG, .249 ISO, 20.3% Brl, and a 48.7% Hard Hit against the split.

Adell is in a zone at the moment. He has three home runs over the last seven days and has even missed a few games for vertigo. He is slashing .316/.381/.789 with a 1.170 OPS during that span. He has finally played like the former top prospect he once was.

Miller features a handful of pitches, but his four-seamer, sinker, and slider cover the majority of what he throws to right-handed hitters. Adell has a .554 SLG, .298 ISO, and 11 home runs against the four-seamer, .632 SLG, .368 ISO, and seven home runs against the slider, and .410 SLH, .128 ISO, and three home runs against the sinker.

Look for Adell to bring our card home strong this Thursday night.

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