MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/21/2025)

August 21, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/21/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Lawrence Butler, Paul DeJong, Junior Caminero and Alec Burleson.

We have a nine-game MLB slate on Thursday, which is a massive slate compared to recent Thursday slates. We have some good hitting weather in Coors Field and Tampa Bay, which are two of the best parks in the big leagues to go home run hunting. We will do our best to exploit good matchups and hitting conditions to find the best home run bets to put on our card today.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs on today, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

In this article, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, August 21, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/21/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, August 21:

• Lawrence Butler, Athletics
• Paul DeJong, Washington Nationals
• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
• Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals

Lawrence Butler OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings)

Our first home run bet of the day comes in a game taking place between the Athletics and Twins this afternoon at Target Field in Minneapolis.

Jose Urena will toe the rubber for the Twins, and he is a regression candidate for us and an arm I am looking to attack. On the season, Urena has a 5.19 xFIP, 1.74 HR/9, and a 41.9% FB. Over the last 30 days, Urena has had a 2.13 ERA, but a 5.48 SIERA. He has allowed a 0.71 HR/9 over that time. The power is going to come back to earth one of these starts, and I like the chances of it being against the Athletics.

Left-handed hitters are the split we are looking to attack with Urena. He has allowed a .242 AVG, .242 ISO, .485 SLG, and four home runs to left-handed hitters in 2025. He is a sinkerball pitcher, and his sinker has a .795 SLG and five home runs against it so far this season.

I know you are expecting this to be Nick Kurtz, but he does not have great power numbers against the sinker. Lawrence Butler does. He has a .525 wOBA, .385 ISO, and a 16-degree launch angle against that pitch in 2025.

Butler has been great against right-handed pitching in 2025. He is slashing .247/.324/.430 with a .754 OPS and 14 home runs. Over his last 15 plate appearances, Butler is slashing .267/.267/.733 with a 1.000 OPS.

I am known for hitting the first bet of the day, so I look forward to Butler going deep tonight.

Paul DeJong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings)

Our second home run bet of the day will come at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. The Nationals will square off against the southpaw Sean Manaea, who has been effective this season but has grown accustomed to giving up the long ball.

Manaea has allowed a 3.64 xFIP, 1.69 HR/9, 44.2% FB, and a 32.6% Hard Hit. Over his last two starts, he has allowed a 3.81 xFIP, 3.00 HR/9, 44.4% FB, and a 44.4% Hard Hit. Manaea has struggled with right-handed bats in 2025. He has allowed a .240 AVG, .230 ISO, .470 SLG, and six home runs to the split this season.

Enter Paul DeJong. DeJong is what we call a lefty masher and is always a target of mine when facing a southpaw. DeJong is slashing .200/.250/.578 with a .828 OPS and five home runs against left-handed pitching this season. Over his last 21 plate appearances, he is red hot, slashing .250/.286/.700 with a .986 OPS.

Paul DeJong is 9-for-21 (.429) with 3 home runs and 7 RBI during his 5 game hitting streak.

He now has 4 homers in his last 8 games. pic.twitter.com/CExUJKL33L

— Nationals Communications (@NationalsComms) August 15, 2025

Manaea has allowed all five of his home runs this season against his four-seamer. This pitch has a .500 SLG against it. Since the start of 2024, Dejong has a .278 wOBA, .200 ISO, and a 27-degree launch angle against four seamers at the same velocity as Manaea.

I love this spot for DeJong to hit a dong. See what I did there?

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Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 FanDuel)

Our final two home run bets will come from the same game, where there are excellent hitting conditions. It will be in the upper 80s at first pitch with a 10+ mph wind blowing out at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. This park is a minor league stadium with the exact dimensions as Yankee Stadium, so it is a short porch with no stadium seating to stop the winds.

Sonny Gray will toe the rubber for the Cardinals, and although he has been an effective arm this season, he has allowed the long ball as of late. Over his last 30 days, Gray has allowed a 3.10 xFIP, 2.17 HR/9, 37.2% FB, and a 36.8% Hard Hit. Right-handed hitters are the split we want to attack him with, as he has allowed a .282 AVG, .212 ISO, .494 SLG, and 13 home runs to them this season.

The best power bat in this Rays lineup, luckily, hits from the right-hand side. Junior Caminero on the season is slashing .264/.304/.537 with a .841 OPS and 25 home runs against right-handed pitching. Over his last 17 plate appearances, he is slashing .188/..235/.625 with a .860 OPS.

Gray has allowed most of his power to right-handed bats on one pitch. His sinker has allowed a .549 SLG and seven home runs against it this season. Caminero on the season has a .594 wOBA, .591 ISO, and four home runs against 81 pitches, the same velocity as Gray's sinker.

Junior was written up in this article yesterday and part of Thunder Dan's RotoBaller Parlay of the day, and he will be again today.

Alec Burleson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel)

We will stay in the same game for our last home run bet of the night. The hard-throwing right-hander Joe Boyle will get the rock for the Rays. Boyle has allowed a ton of power this season and is my number one target on the slate for home runs.

On the season, Boyle has allowed a 4.96 xFIP, 1.65 HR/9, 52.9% FB, and a 36.5% Hard Hit. Over his last two starts, he has allowed a 6.61 xFIP, 6.75 HR/9, 56.3% FB, and a 62.5% Hard Hit. He has allowed three home runs to both sides of the plate, but the bat I want for this Redbirds team hits from the left-hand side, in which Boyle has allowed a .149 AVG, .194 ISO, and a .343 SLG.

Alec Burleson is the bat I mentioned above. He is slashing .289/.349/.464 with a .813 OPS and 12 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2025. Over his last 31 plate appearances, he is slashing .310/.355/.345 with a .700 OPS.

Alec Burleson makes it a five-run inning for the @Cardinals! pic.twitter.com/Ac1JUqx0g2

— MLB (@MLB) June 4, 2025

The main reason I love Burleson is because of how he handles velocity from right-hand pitching. As we know, Boyle throws a very specific fastball, often touching triple digits. His four-seamer has a .407 SLG and three home runs against it this season. Burleson has a .511 wOBA, .438 ISO, 18-degree launch angle, and two home runs against it.

I love Burleson to bring us home tonight.

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