MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/29/2025)

July 29, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/29/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Matt Wallner, Nick Kurtz, Julio Rodriguez, and more!

We have 15 games this Tuesday in MLB. We have some elite hitting conditions on the East Coast tonight, as well as in Sacramento. There are plenty of pitchers going today who have struggled with the long ball this season. Our goal will be to find the hitters with the best chances to leave the yard.

I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than five home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run hits.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/29/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, July 29:

• Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins
• Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
• Nick Kurtz, Athletics
• Shea Langeliers, Athletics
• Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

Matt Wallner OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 Fanatics)

Our first bet of the night comes in Minneapolis, Minnesota, as the Twins host the Red Sox at Target Field. Lucas Giolito will toe the rubber for the Red Sox, and he will be the main target for us in this spot.

Giolito has allowed a 4.05 xFIP, 1.43 HR/9, 42.3% FB, and a 35.3% Hard Hit this season. Over his last two starts, he has struggled with the long ball. Giolito has a 5.21 xFIP, 4.82 HR/9, 58.1% FB, and a 58.1% Hard Hit.

He has struggled with both sides of the plate this season. He has allowed a .137 ISO, .416 SLG, and six home runs to right-handed hitters and a .185 ISO, .411 SLG, and six home runs to left-handed hitters.

I don’t prefer which handiness, but I do think our best bet is from the left-hand side. Matt Wallner is red hot at the moment. He has a .413 wOBA, .632 SLG, 46.2% FB, and a 30.8% Hard Hit over his last 24 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Wallner has hit two home runs during that span. He is slashing .204/.303/.438 with a .742 OPS against right-hand pitching this season.

We are going to ride with the hot hand for our first home run bet of the night.

Salvador Perez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel)

Erick Fedde will make his debut for the Atlanta Braves tonight at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. It will be 94 degrees at first pitch with a 6+ mph wind blowing out, which is great hitting conditions. Kauffman is the toughest park in MLB to hit a home run in, so tread lightly here.

Erick Fedde has been downright awful this season. He has allowed a 6.39 xFIP, 3,21 HR/9, 38.2% FB, and a 56.1% Hard Hit over the last thirty days. Over his previous two starts, he has allowed a 6.00 HR/9, 50.0% FB, and a 60.0% Hard Hit. I have no idea why he is still pitching in the big leagues, but let’s take advantage of it.

Fedde is someone I tend to target with left-handed bats. He has allowed a .205 ISO, .495 SLG, and 10 home runs to lefties this season. Righties have a .131 ISO, .377 SLG, and have hit four home runs. So why are we betting on Salvador Perez, you ask?

Perez is the hottest hitter on the planet at the moment. Over his last 31 plate appearances against right-hand pitching, Perez has a .609 wOBA, 1.034 SLG, 62.5% FB, and a 45.8% Hard Hit. He has five home runs during that span.

It's a two-homer night for Salvador Perez 😤 pic.twitter.com/sME2UNeeNe

— MLB (@MLB) July 22, 2025

Perez left the game on Monday with a left elbow contusion, so if he does not play, you can bet Vinnie Pasquantino, but I am riding Salvador Perez’s hot streak on a hot summer day in Kansas City.

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Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+245 Fanatics)

Our last three home run bets are going to come from the same game. For those who have read this article before, you know how much I love betting on home runs in Sacramento. It will be 90 degrees at first pitch with a 15 mph wind blowing out to left center.

Sutter Health Park has been one of the best parks in the big leagues for home runs this season. Logan Evans will be on the bump for the Mariners. He has allowed a .215 ISO, .546 SLG, and a 1.7 HR/9 this season on the road. He has a 35.9% FB and a 51.6% Hard Hit over the last thirty days. In this park, those numbers will not fare well.

Evans has allowed a .188 ISO, .473 SLG, and four home runs to left-handed hitters this season. He has been shown even splits to both sides of the plate, but as we all know by now, the best bat in this lineup hits from the left-hand side.

I mentioned Salvador Perez earlier as the hottest hitter on the planet, but Nick Kurtz may be hotter if that’s even possible. He has a .991 wOBA, 1.720 SLG, .960 ISO, 50.0% FB, and a 72.7% Hard Hit over his last 29 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He has five home runs during that span, although four came in the same game.

Nick Kurtz just had one of the greatest games in baseball history.

6 for 6 with four home runs, six runs and eight RBIs.

He is a 22-year-old rookie. pic.twitter.com/jcpKdJBUqk

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 26, 2025

I have been following this kid since his days at Wake Forest, so this is no surprise to me, but this matchup is too good to pass up.

Shea Langeliers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 FanDuel)

Langeliers has been on fire. He has a .476 wOBA, .423 ISO, .769 SLG, 52.4% FB, and a 28.6% Hard Hit against right-hand pitching over his last 30 plate appearances.

Langeliers has 13 home runs against right-hand pitching this season and is slashing .211/.283/.444 with a .727 OPS. He has fared well against right-hand pitching this season, although I usually like to target him against lefties.

Evans, as I mentioned earlier, has allowed just as much power to righties as he has lefties. Evans has a .170 ISO, .432 SLG, and has allowed five home runs to right-handed hitters this season.

I like this park a bit more for right-handed power, especially when the wind is blowing out to left-center field.

Julio Rodriguez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 Bet 365)

Speaking of right-handed power, Julio Rodriguez will square off against Luis Severino. Severino has allowed a 4.48 xFIP, 1.46 HR/9, 35.2% FB, and a 37.5% Hard Hit over his last thirty days. Severino has a .160 ISO, .462 SLG, and a 1.1 HR/9 at home this season.

He has allowed more home runs to right-handed hitters than lefties. This season, righties have a .132 ISO, .381 SLG, and seven home runs against him. As I mentioned earlier, I like this park more for right-handed power, and Julio Rodriguez has tons of that.

Julio is slashing .255/.316/.404 with a .720 OPS and 10 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. He has a .353 wOBA, .214 ISO, and a .500 SLG over his last 29 plate appearances against righties. This comes with a 45.5% FB and a 33.3% Hard Hit.

Let’s finish the night strong in Sacramento at Sutter Health Park.

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