Third Base Fantasy Baseball Bust Candidates - Players to Consider Avoiding in Drafts

March 25, 2025

Ryan's third base fantasy baseball bust candidates for 2025. His overvalued picks at 3B include Rafael Devers, Royce Lewis, Eugenio Suarez, Ryan McMahon, more.

With Opening Day nearly here, we are in the thick of the fantasy baseball draft season. Fantasy baseball sleepers and busts lists are here. Depth charts are being updated. It's a wonderful time of year when almost any team or player looks like they have the potential to add value in fantasy baseball leagues. But even before games count, we know that's not going to be the case. 

The MLB regular season officially began on March 18 between the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers in Japan. That means the full 2025 campaign is almost here. With Spring Training almost complete, the fantasy baseball season is also right around the corner -- and I'm here to discuss some picks I'm avoiding in drafts.

In this article, we will look at players who might bust this year, this time at third base. These players might not be valuable picks in fantasy this year for various reasons, such as injury and decline in performance, and are going a bit too high in drafts. Let's dive in and see which third basemen make the list. All ADP information is from NFBC drafts. Projections are taken from Rotoballer's ATC for 2025.

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Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox

ADP: 34.8

Even looking past all the drama of Alex Bregman coming to town and the will-he-won't-he play third base for Rafael Devers this spring, there are signs Devers might be in trouble in this 2025 season. A combination of 2024 injuries, slow recovery time, and mechanical adjustments could significantly impact Devers' ability to pay off a price tag in the third round of fantasy baseball drafts.

The second half of 2024 was extremely disappointing. After slashing .291/.374/.592 in the first half, he slumped to .244/.325/.402 in the second. Many think this was due to two separate shoulder injuries that caused him to lose his power and his ability to square up and barrel the ball. His strikeout rate went up and his walk rate went down. Overall, these injuries were not serious enough that they thought rest would heal them, but the recovery has been slow.

Rafael Devers spoke with reporters today and is now open to being the Red Sox DH after being adamant that third base was his position earlier in the spring

Quote via @IanMBrowne pic.twitter.com/SWT5lJUOvc

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 13, 2025

It's been so slow, in fact, that Devers did not debut until the second week of March this spring. He is also tweaking with swing mechanics that he hopes will help him avoid future shoulder injuries. In the end, with all the drama, injuries, and poor production last season, there is enough smoke here that we are playing with fire taking Devers before pick 40 in drafts.

Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies

ADP: 279.5

Ryan McMahon might be a third baseman you can only use for half of the season, just like Royce Lewis, but for a completely different reason. For his career, McMahon has shown wild splits between his time at home games in Coors Field and road games.

In Coors Field games throughout his career, McMahon is a very good hitter, settling in at .265/.340/.474 in his eight seasons. On the road, however, it looks quite horrific. He hits .220/.306/.367 away from Coors and has just an 84 wRC+. That means his offense is 16 percent below the league average on the road for his career.

I don’t think a tweet has ever been meant for Ryan McMahon more,
4 straight years of 150+ games played and all his stats have stayed within these ranges:

20-23 HRs
130-137 hits
.240-.254 avg
.722-.779 ops
95-98 ops+
.322-.331 obp
59-69 walks
4-7 stolen bases
4x GG finalist https://t.co/Ozf7w6NrwM pic.twitter.com/CiPJNfJtoG

— Christian (@coors_merchant) February 25, 2025

If you happen to be in a league that allows daily transactions, I would certainly grab McMahon at this range and perhaps a little earlier. The ability to play him only at home is a pure gift in those formats. But now that he is over 30 years old and a well-below-average hitter on the road, I don't want any part of McMahon as a starting third baseman.

He is much more intriguing as a late-round corner-infield pick who has the ability to pop 20 home runs and steal six bases. McMahon's best days may be behind him, and his best days are definitely not the days he is away from Coors Field.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 158.9

The move to Arizona rejuvenated Eugenio Suarez's career in 2024. Getting away from the cavernous T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Suarez settled in nicely with a season where he hit .256/.319/.469 with 30 home runs, 90 runs, and 101 RBI. He played in 158 games, which was the fourth time in four seasons he has played at least 145.

He was the model of consistency at age 33, and now he looks to repeat all of that success in the season where he will turn 34 and faces a roster crunch where a couple of dominant young players are looking for jobs. Can Suarez repeat his magnificent season in 2025? It's possible, but there are cracks in the armor that show there might be trouble.

¡Eugenio Suárez con P O D E R! 💥 pic.twitter.com/374mLOj0QM

— LasMayores (@LasMayores) March 1, 2025

The first from last season is his O-Swing%, or the percentage of pitches he swung at outside the zone. That number jumped up to 27 percent from 22.4 percent in 2023. That led to more strikeouts and a walk rate that dropped from 10.1 percent in 2023 to 7.7 percent in 2024. His hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity all decreased last year as well.

This is not an indication that Eugenio Suarez is done being a solid fantasy contributor. Rather, it's a matter of wanting to be out on him too early instead of too late when the cliff comes. Not many third basemen make it past this age with power, plus with Jordan Lawlar making a case to join the big club, Suarez could have a much rougher season in 2025 than he did in 2024.

Royce Lewis, 3B, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 138.2

Update: Royce Lewis was forced to leave the spring game on March 17th with what is being described as a moderate hamstring strain. His streak of suffering injuries that impact his time on the field continues. 

As much as I love Royce Lewis and his immense talent, grabbing him for your fantasy teams around pick 130 is tempting fate after all of the games he has missed due to injury the last three years. He hasn't played more than 82 games in his three years in the majors, as he has been racked by injuries during that time. ATC projections have him pegged for 122 games in 2025, but that would be 40 more than any season he has played in the majors.

Royce Lewis, the new "Two true outcomes" player...

Home Run or Injured List#MNTwinspic.twitter.com/kV8Plbdw9W

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) June 13, 2024

Much of the promise of what Lewis can do stems from his 58-game sample in 2023. In that span, he hit .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs and 52 RBI. He also had an unsustainable .354 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and plummeted 100 points last year. His six steals from 2023 dropped to zero in 2024 due to leg injuries and health maintenance. This year, his projection shows him hitting .251/.315/.460, which is a reasonable compromise.

But until he shows me that he can, I'm not projecting Lewis for more than 100 games played, especially if he sticks at the hot corner. His hard-hit rate was down last year, as was his exit velocity, barrel rate, and ISO. With injuries often comes skill decline, so it's hard to judge exactly where Lewis would land if he had a relatively healthy year, but I'm going to let someone else take that risk in 2025.

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