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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 14 (2024) and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
With the weekend upon us, a fresh batch of fantasy baseball waiver-wire recommendations will fill the RotoBaller feeds. Our team's various waiver-wire recommendations are coming with full force this weekend, so be sure to check out all the great articles there. As we consider players who are in the midst of hot streaks or expanded roles on their teams, there is always a buyer-beware element to our waiver-wire decisions.
Are hot streaks a result of luck or a change in skills or roles? Will today's costly waiver-wire investment just end up on tomorrow's most-dropped list just because we were trying to chase an unsustainable set of statistics? Evaluating the hot waiver- wire recommendations for their under-the-hood performance will help fantasy managers further understand not only should an investment be made in certain players, but also how much of an investment to acquire their services.
Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver-wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend who deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
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Joc Pederson, OF - Arizona Diamondbacks
After 11 seasons in Major League Baseball, we pretty much know what Joc Pederson is at this point. We also know what he is NOT after all this time. He is not someone who plays against left-handed pitchers. He is not someone who can maintain a low strikeout rate, and he is not a .297 hitter with a .394 on-base percentage.
Strikingly, those are his numbers heading into Friday night's games, and he has bolstered them with two homers, 12 RBI, and a .364 average in the last 14 days. In leagues on sites like Yahoo and ESPN, Pederson is under 50% rostered, so he should be a major waiver priority this weekend when bids are placed. I completely understand and support the need to roster Pederson if your team is desperate for home runs and RBI, but please don't spend expecting to get a .297/.394/.520 player at age 32.
JOC RESURGENCE 🚀
Joc Pederson was a sub-.240 career hitter who only hit > .250 once since 2015
So far in 2024:
.303 with an OBP nearing .400
— Vlad Sedler (@RotoGut) June 22, 2024
The first number that slaps you in the face for Pederson is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). At .364 this season, it is 90 points above his career average and is sure to come tumbling down over the next three months. His hard-hit rate is actually down three percentage points over 2023 and his launch angle, barrel rate, and max exit velocity are all slightly worse.
Add it all up and Statcast believes Pederson should have a slugging percentage around .472 instead of his current .520. That's right in line with Pederson's career .462 slugging rate and is more like what we should expect for the balance of 2024.
Jarred Kelenic, OF - Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have been mixing and matching with their leadoff spot since Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL last month. Ozzie Albies spent a few games there. So did Michael Harris II before he was injured. But the last week or so, the Braves have decided to give that spot to our old post-hype sleeper friend, Jarred Kelenic.
Kelenic has been uber-successful in that role, hitting .308 with two home runs and a steal over the last week. The Braves seem poised to stick with him in that spot as long as they need. However, Kelenic, like someone such as Joc Pederson, has some major flaws that cannot be overlooked.
The @Braves are 4-1 since Jarred Kelenic moved up to the leadoff spot.
The 24-year-old outfielder owns a .913 OPS over those five games 🔥 pic.twitter.com/BuxbIC1fxW
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) June 20, 2024
Kelenic also is benefiting from an oversized BABIP (.355; .284 for his career) and brings a 30% strikeout rate to the plate every time he comes up to bat. Kelenic's average exit velocity is not even at the 50th percentile among major league hitters and his whiff rate and chase rate are all in the bottom 20% of hitters this season.
His expected slugging percentage (.408) is bordering on dropping below the Major League Baseball average (.392) and his ground-ball rate is now approaching 40% this season. I am rooting for the former sixth overall pick to succeed and finally get that prospect monkey off his back, but the results we have seen in the past couple of weeks are not likely showing the true player Kelenic is.
Spencer Horwitz, 1B/2B - Toronto Blue Jays
Spencer Horwitz was called up by the Toronto Blue Jays two weeks ago and has had a very nice run since then, getting nine starts and hitting .353 in that span. With the injuries to Bo Bichette and the team letting Cavan Biggio and Daniel Vogelbach walk out of town, Toronto was in need of an impact bat in the top half of its lineup.
Horwitz has hit leadoff in seven of his nine starts this season, but it appears if you need anything other than average or on-base percentage, he is not going to be able to help you. This is a player who never had more than 10 home runs or nine stolen bases in a minor league campaign. He frequently would post OBPs between .400 and .450, but that was his primary skill.
Will that translate to success in the big leagues in a sustainable way? Time will tell, but he is a 26-year-old rookie, so we should have a clue on his progression soon. His BABIP of .414 to start his career is about 120 points above the league average, and that has to come down in the weeks ahead. He has no power to speak of and hits 45% of his batted balls into the ground.
After the hot start, Horwitz has not started in back-to-back days as guys like Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider are getting the playing time that was going to Horwitz. This looks like a situation where there will be a lot of mixing and matching going on in the lineup, and I'm not looking to have that headache in my weekly lineups.
DJ Herz, SP - Washington Nationals
This recommendation is not a referendum on his poor pitching against the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field on Friday night. That kind of game can happen to anyone there, so judging DJ Herz on that start is not relevant. What is interesting, however, is how well he did one thing in that game that is the same thing he has done so poorly in the past.
Isn't it ironic...don't you think? In that start on Friday against Colorado, Herz did not walk a single batter. That is now back-to-back starts with zero walks (the other one being June 15 against Miami) for Herz who -- how shall we say? -- struggles mightily in that department historically.
And DJ Herz will not finish the 4th. Davey Martinez takes the ball from his rookie left-hander after 76 pitches in 3 2/3 innings. Derek Law is the first of several relievers who will be asked to hold a 9-4 lead.
— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) June 22, 2024
Herz's walk rates per nine innings in his last five minor leagues stops looks like this: 7.25, 5.09, 5.64, 9.38, and 5.23. I suppose it's possible that a pitcher with as much strikeout potential as Herz can just focus more and rein in his command once he reaches the major leagues, but it doesn't seem likely. At some point, Herz is going to have to pay the piper on his command and control issues.
If we look at Herz's first two appearances before the Miami and Colorado games, we have a better understanding of who he is. In those games, Herz pitched a total of eight innings and walked five batters while only striking out eight. If we start seeing that version of Herz again, it won't be pretty for our fantasy teams.
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