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Ryan Kirksey analyzes three fantasy football rookies to avoid in 2024 FFPC best ball drafts as they are currently priced above their current projections.
While we aren't quite yet into the traditional draft season for fantasy football redraft leagues, June is almost over, which means fantasy best ball drafts are shifting into high gear. Rookies are always an exciting part of the best ball experience because of the blank slate that they bring. After all the hype the 2024 NFL Draft received, the upside for so many rookies this year is immense, but not all of them will live up to the hype. Which rookies should we avoid as we draft in best ball leagues this summer? Several fantasy football sites have already released their best ball contests, including one of the most popular sites in the game: The Fantasy Football Players Championship, better known as FFPC.
The first scoring quirk to consider on FFPC is that quarterbacks get one point for every 20 yards passing instead of the traditional 25 yards. This means pocket passers get a little more of a bump compared to other best ball tournaments where rushing quarterbacks rule the day. Secondly, FFPC is a tight-end premium site. That means tight ends earn 1.5 points per reception, while all other skill positions receive just one point per reception. These nuances often make for interesting rankings, leading several players to be listed too high or too low based on projections, and some drafts can involve players taking multiple tight ends.
I will be breaking down three rookies that you should avoid in best ball drafts. Obvious rookies buried on the depth chart will not be mentioned in this article since they are universally undrafted at this point anyway. For each player below, I will include their current FFPC ADP as well as where they stand in RotoBaller's Best Ball rankings.
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Three Fantasy Football Rookies To Avoid In FFPC Best Ball Drafts
Drake Maye, QB - New England Patriots
FFPC ADP: 183.0
RotoBaller Rank: 171.0
Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye are both aware that training camp is going to feature an open competition between them to see who gets the starting job when the season opens in September. The consensus opinion seems to be that Brissett will get the role to start the season since the Patriots aren't expected to be playing for anything this year as they continue their rebuild.
Maye can learn for several weeks and then eventually take over as the starter when he's ready. Some expect that will happen as soon as Week 5 when the Patriots have three home games in four weeks, but no one knows for sure. One can understand the appeal in best ball leagues to roster players like Maye who could help you finish strong in the playoff weeks if he likely is starting by then. Still, the Patriots offense does not look fantasy-friendly this season, despite some of the improvements they have tried to make.
Okay, Drake Maye. pic.twitter.com/4RwzbtobBV
— Christian Williams (@CWilliamsCFB) May 30, 2024
Last season, New England was second to last in the NFL in time of possession. It simply could not sustain drives with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe under center. The Patriots hope that Brissett and Maye will help alleviate some of the quarterback talent concerns, but there are still question marks in the receiving corps. Put in fantasy football terms, the Patriots don't have a wide receiver ranked in the top 70 at the position this year.
It's possible that rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker can emerge throughout the season, but it wouldn't be wise to bank on that for your fantasy rosters. Speaking of the bank, the Patriots just gave Rhamondre Stevenson a four-year, $36 million deal on Thursday, further committing to the run game in 2024. Give me J.J. McCarthy at an average draft position (ADP) of 168.4 if we are talking rookies batting for jobs this summer as the Vikings' offensive ecosystem is much more conducive to helping a rookie quarterback succeed than the Patriots' currently is.
Keon Coleman, WR - Buffalo Bills
FFPC ADP: 105.5
RotoBaller Rank: 94.0
Keon Coleman already has the social media highlights, a media-friendly personality, and the draft pedigree (picked No. 33 overall), but that does not mean he will immediately become successful in Buffalo. Sure, he can catch passes from Josh Allen in shorts in 7-on-7 drills, but Coleman has some real deficiencies to overcome as a route runner.
Primarily, the concern with Coleman is that he is too slow. Coleman's 4.61 40-yard-dash time is in the 27th percentile of all wide receivers. Drew DeLuca of QBList.com says it's the same speed as another Florida State prospect from seasons past, Kelvin Benjamin. Benjamin was a good college player who was thought of as someone who could catch anything, but his NFL career never amounted to much as he was unable to get open consistently and defenses figured out how to play against him.
New Buffalo Bills receiver Keon Coleman 👇
Big, athletic, and has to be used in the RIGHT way can make a big impact https://t.co/OBm1FExoEp pic.twitter.com/Vu6i1EKy1b
— Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) April 26, 2024
In addition, just because the Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis doesn't mean Coleman won't have target competition. The Bills will be leaning heavily on Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, emerging superstar Dalton Kincaid, and Dawson Knox to catch passes. According to PFF, Kincaid played 77.9% of his snaps in 2023 either lined out wide or in the slot and should be thought of more as a wide receiver even though his position is technically listed as a tight end on the official depth chart.
We know how much the Bills committed to the run last year with Josh Allen and James Cook as well under offensive coordinator Joe Brady (Buffalo was sixth in the NFL with a 46.5% rush play percentage). The combination of target competition, lack of speed, and offensive scheme has me steering clear of Coleman as an unknown commodity in most FFPC best ball drafts.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB - Green Bay Packers
FFPC ADP: 136.2
RotoBaller Rank: 162.0
In dynasty leagues, grabbing shares of MarShawn Lloyd is a solid long-term bet. After losing Aaron Jones, the Packers signed Josh Jacobs to a team-friendly deal that could turn into just a one-year commitment depending on how this season goes. The Packers want MarShawn Lloyd to be their running back of the future, but the future is likely not in 2024. Green Bay is in win-now mode while quarterback Jordan Love is on a one-year, $10 million deal. They will likely sign him to a long-term deal sometime soon, which would necessitate the move to a cheaper back like Lloyd down the road. My expectation for 2024, however, is that Lloyd is mostly an understudy this season unless Jacobs gets hurt.
Lloyd was a touchdown machine his last two years of college (20 combined), but he has never had more than 820 rushing yards in a collegiate season. Lloyd will be almost 23 years old when the season starts, and the Packers must hope he can pack some more muscle onto his 5-foot-9, 210-pound frame.
Lloyd was not a pass-catcher in college (just a 4.6% target share last season) and never handled more than 116 rush attempts in any one season. Simply put, he is not ready for a full-time role at this point in his career. Lloyd does get the opportunity to be mentored by someone in Jacobs who truly understands what it means to grind out 300 touches in an NFL season, but Lloyd's likely diminished role is why we have him more than 25 spots lower in our ranks than the current FFPC ADP.
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