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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 12 (2024) and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
With the weekend upon us, a fresh batch of fantasy baseball waiver wire recommendations will fill the RotoBaller feeds. Our team's various waiver wire recommendations are coming with full force this weekend, so be sure to check out all the great articles there. As we consider players who are in the midst of hot streaks or expanded roles on their teams, there is always a buyer-beware element to our waiver wire decisions.
Are hot streaks a result of luck or a change in skills or roles? Will today's costly waiver wire investment just end up on tomorrow's most-dropped list just because we were trying to chase an unsustainable set of statistics? Evaluating the hot waiver wire recommendations for their under-the-hood performance will help fantasy managers further understand not only should an investment be made in certain players, but also how much of an investment to acquire their services.
Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend that deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
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David Hamilton, 2B/SS - Boston Red Sox
David Hamilton stole two more bases on Friday night, giving him 11 in just 39 games this season. After just a short debut in 2023 (five games), Hamilton has come up and made a difference in the middle infield for the Red Sox, hitting .276/.339/.410 to go along with the 11 steals and a pair of home runs. There is no denying that Hamilton can be an asset for those teams who are desperate for steals, but an under-the-hood analysis shows we probably shouldn't count on too much more during his rookie season.
David Hamilton leads all AL rookies in stolen bases with nine.
He also leads all qualified AL rookies in AVG (.276) and ranks 2nd in OBP (.339), 3rd in OPS (.749), and 4th in SLG (.410). pic.twitter.com/sxO8e8STOr
— Jamie Gatlin (@JamieGatlin17) June 7, 2024
Hamilton's speed is undeniable, but his bat seems to be overachieving. In addition to his .355 average on balls in play, he has only a 7% walk rate, lower than any of his four seasons in the minor leagues. His two home runs and six doubles have given him a power boost to start the season, but his Statcast expected slugging percentage (.360) is 50 points lower than what shows up on the back of his baseball card heading into the weekend (.410). He is only projected for about a .220 batting average by ATC for the rest of the year, and a .294 projected on-base percentage won't allow for many opportunities for stolen bases.
To put it simply, Hamilton is outperforming any of his minor league seasons at the plate. Once that normalizes, it will be hard to rely on him for anything else other than some steals in the ledger. I would not pay for the performance to date, but rather budget for what you can afford if your team needs steals.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B - Colorado Rockies
UPDATE: Brendan Rodgers was placed on the IL on Saturday June 8th.
Brendan Rodgers is the perfect player if there are any fantasy leagues out there that have daily transactions and only count home games for statistics. Like many Colorado Rockies before him, Brendan Rodgers has excelled at home this season but been largely useless on the road. Thanks to a string of recent home games, Rodgers has been a top-30 hitter in MLB over the last week or so, but there are signs that will not continue.
At home in Coors Field, Rodgers is a .314/.360/.457 hitter with three home runs and 13 RBI. On the road, Rodgers is batting just .234/.254/.324 with zero home runs and nine RBI. His strikeout percentage goes up on the road and his walk rate goes down. Perhaps most importantly, he has a .370 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) at home and just .317 on the road.
Rodgers has a week starting June 14 where he will be at home for 10 games, but after that, the road games pick up and the production is likely to go down. Be mindful of the splits when picking up Rodgers and deploy him only when he has a stretch of home games upcoming.
Heliot Ramos, OF - San Francisco Giants
There may be no hotter hitter in baseball right now than Heliot Ramos. He is a top-20 hitter over the last seven days and has been playing so well that he's been bumped up to the first or second spot in the order over the last week. With five full-time Giants players on the IL, Ramos' promotion from AAA on May 8 has been nothing short of outstanding, but he could start to regress very soon.
Heliot Ramos over his last 17 games:
.317 AVG
5 HR
14 RBI
8 Runspic.twitter.com/VkqTOO0mW9— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) June 6, 2024
Ramos' super-high .434 BABIP is certainly driving his success (.307/.407/.511) in his first few weeks. A strikeout rate of 31% and ground-ball rate of 47% should not support how he is hitting right now. His 13% walk rate is very strong, but Ramos' expected batting average (.255) computes to more than 50 points below what he is actually batting. There is going to be a lot of free-agent money spent on Ramos this weekend, and I fear that managers will not get the kind of production Ramos has seen the last two weeks.
Tylor Megill, SP - New York Mets
Tylor Megill has been one of the few bright spots for the New York Mets this season in an otherwise miserable year. His 3.00 ERA in his first four starts for the club have been a welcome addition to a struggling pitching staff and his 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings are the best of his career. The good news stops there, however, as many other numbers tell a troubling story in his first 21 innings.
Tylor Megill, Gorgeous 86mph American Spork. 🇺🇸🥄🍴 pic.twitter.com/uYxEZDCQdc
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 20, 2024
Statcast shows that his 3.00 and his expected ERA of 4.80 are wildly out of sync. There are a number of reasons why. Megill allows almost four walks per nine innings this year but he leaves more than two-thirds of his men on base. He has a comically low 3.7% home run per fly-ball rate. His ground-ball rate of 35% is more than five percentage points lower than any other season in his career. He allows a 13% barrel rate. The list just goes on and on.
Mostly, Megill has been lucky to have such strong performances in his first four outings. The ATC projection system believes he has a 4.40 ERA and just eight strikeouts per nine the rest of the season. There are certainly worse options at pitcher on the waiver wire, but don't pay for the 3.00 ERA and high strikeouts.
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