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Ryan Kirksey identifies the most overvalued 2024 fantasy football players for FFPC Best Ball leagues, according to ADP, to find players who could be busts.
While we aren't yet close to the traditional draft season for fantasy football redraft leagues, June is here, which means best ball drafts are shifting into high gear. Several fantasy football sites have already released their flagship contests, including one of the most popular sites in the game: Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). If you have played on a competitive platform such as FFPC, you have noticed slight nuances to its scoring system that must be considered when drafting.
The first scoring quirk to consider is that quarterbacks get one point for every 20 yards passing instead of the traditional 25 yards. This means pocket passers get a little more of a bump compared to other best ball tournaments where rushing quarterbacks rule the day. Secondly, FFPC is a tight-end premium site. That means tight ends get 1.5 points per reception, while all other skill positions receive one point. These nuances often make for interesting rankings, leading many players to be listed too high or too low based on projections.
To assist with the rankings discussion, I want to identify some players in FFPC Best Ball formats that are seemingly overvalued in their primary best ball format. This process will use their standard Slim Best Ball games (no kickers or D/ST rostered) and not Superflex or two-quarterback leagues. For each player, I will include their current FFPC ADP as well as where they stand in RotoBaller's Best Ball rankings.
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Overvalued Players In FFPC Best Ball Drafts
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
FFPC ADP: 20.9, RB7
RotoBaller Rank: 44, RB12
If you're drafting Derrick Henry in traditional best ball formats over at FFPC this summer, you are putting a lot of faith in many things going right for Henry on his new team that I currently can't get behind. Transitioning to a new team and a new environment for the first time in his career, the biggest thing Henry has going for him is the offensive scheme Baltimore loves to run. No other team ran rushing plays at a higher rate than the Ravens' 49.9% in 2023. Their game plan is designed around the run, and Henry's advocates use that to prop up his projections and ADP.
However, as all know, Henry is on the wrong side of 30. His yards per carry and fantasy points per game have all fallen for three straight seasons. Once considered one of the game's most efficient runners, Henry ranked 35th among running backs in fantasy points per opportunity last season. He had the second-most rushing yards (1.167) because he carried the ball the most times in the league (280). Thirty-year-old backs don't typically withstand that kind of beating, so this high of an ADP asks Henry to be an outlier in 2024.
Running backs perform worse when they change teams, especially later in their careers.
Sample: RBs since 2000 with multiple top-12 PPR finishes in their career.
What does this mean for Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry?
Let’s dive in. pic.twitter.com/ALb676LpmR
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) March 17, 2024
The other negative mark on the ledger for Henry is the presence of Lamar Jackson. In his second MVP season, Jackson was top four at the position in rushing attempts, yards, red-zone carries, and touchdowns. Some of the gimme touchdowns Henry is used to getting are going to go to Jackson in 2024, and that's just a fact.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
FFPC ADP: 81.1, RB25
RotoBaller Rank: 92, RB30
While there is not a massive difference in the average draft position (ADP) on FFPC and our RotoBaller ranks, I am much more likely to take James Conner closer to RB30 than I am at RB25 or higher. Injuries, efficiency, and the presence of competition may now force Conner into the territory where he is no longer a starting running back on many fantasy teams.
Consider the fact that Conner has played more than 13 games just once in his career. That was back in 2021, and he hasn't topped 13 in the last two seasons. Last season (his age-28 season), Conner was just 17th in yards created and 16th in yards per touch. The receiving game disappeared altogether (41st among running backs in targets), and he only carried the ball 208 times.
All this persuaded the Cardinals to draft Trey Benson at the top of the third round out of Florida State. Benson was a touchdown machine for the Seminoles and also managed 227 receiving yards in his final college season. The biggest fear I have with Conner is that he misses a game or two, concedes the starting job to Benson while he is out, and Benson is so good he never gives it back to Conner. Around pick 80, give me Zamir White or Zack Moss, who both seem to have secure roles this year.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
FFPC ADP: 28.1, WR13
RotoBaller Rank: 47, WR24
Nico Collins recently secured his future with a three-year, $73 million deal, assuring that he will be C.J. Stroud's top option for years to come. Collins had one of the best receiving seasons in the league last year, breaking out with 109 targets, 80 receptions, 1,297 yards, and eight touchdowns. He was second in the NFL in yards per route run and third in yards per target. He truly looks like a top-20 wide receiver going forward, but the addition of Stefon Diggs by the Texans this offseason at least complicates things somewhat.
Texans signing WR Nico Collins to three-year, $72M extension. (via @tompelissero) pic.twitter.com/DZ46jjfuYf
— NFL (@NFL) May 28, 2024
Right now, FFPC has three Texans receivers in the top 60 overall picks (and top-30 wide receivers). I know Stroud was phenomenal last season, but can he really support three top-30 wide receivers? With Dalton Schultz, Brevin Jordan, and Joe Mixon also needing touches, I'm skeptical that all of Collins, Tank Dell, and Diggs have monster years. The Texans could have an elite offense, but with the ball spread around so much, it produces several good-not-great seasons in that corps.
I do feel, however, that the RotoBaller ranking has him too low. I'm more in the camp that Collins will be around WR15 this season, and I would gladly take him at the end of the third round or the beginning of the fourth. On FFPC, you need to draft him before the middle of the third round, and my plan will normally be to take a running back there after going wide receiver early in the draft.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
FFPC ADP: 91, TE13
RotoBaller Rank: 123, TE13
While both FFPC and RotoBaller have T.J. Hockenson ranked as the TE13 for 2024, there is a vast difference in where they are ranked on each site. Mainly due to the tight-end premium scoring format, Hockenson makes his way up to Round 9 in FFPC Best Ball contests, while our fantasy football rankers have him pegged more as a 12th-round selection. Even with the premium scoring at the position, the injury history for Hockenson and the uncertainty at quarterback cause me to look elsewhere for a tight end in that range.
Hockenson was elite over his first three months with the Vikings last season but tore his ACL and MCL on a low hit in Week 16 that required him to wait five weeks before the swelling subsided and the surgery could be completed. That time frame puts him in serious jeopardy of missing all of training camp and even the start of the regular season. When he is ready to return, will he be 100%? Plus, what will be the downgrade going from Kirk Cousins in 2023 to a combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy in 2024?
#Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson provides an update on his rehab. He underwent surgery in late January after tearing his right ACL and MCL in a late December loss vs. Lions. He is not putting a timeline, as of now, for when he can return to game action. pic.twitter.com/yCUXpbdOEp
— KSTPSports (@KSTPSports) April 15, 2024
In the pick 80-100 range on FFPC, give me Dallas Goedert or Dalton Schultz instead, at least until we know that Hockenson has a clean bill of health and will be out there for most of the 17 games in 2024.
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