NFL Rookies to Watch in Week 18: Fantasy Football Dynasty and Redraft Leagues

January 6, 2024

NFL rookie outlooks for fantasy football Week 18 (2023). Hayden looks at promising fantasy rookies at QB, RB, and WR to identify potential sleepers and busts.

Week 18 of the NFL season has finally arrived. Playoff berths and division titles are on the line, as the postseason bracket will soon be set. By contrast, many fantasy football championships have been determined already. Not all have been, though, as some fantasy managers continue to fight for pride and payouts. Fantasy considerations remain important even as the NFL concludes its regular season.

There was no shortage of quality rookie performances in Week 17. First-year receivers Rashee Rice, Puka Nacua, and Zay Flowers all surpassed 100 yards receiving, and Green Bay's Jayden Reed had 89 yards and two touchdowns. Miami rookie running back De'Von Achane had a great outing, tallying 137 scrimmage yards and a score. Aidan O'Connell also played well to lead the rookie QBs; O'Connell passed for 299 yards and two touchdowns for the Raiders.

Whether you are a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I have been breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column is split into two parts: one about players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues

C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has had a brilliant rookie campaign. He missed two weeks due to a concussion, but he returned to play last week at home versus the Titans. Stroud ended the game with 24 completions on 32 attempts for 213 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. The former Ohio State Buckeye finished as the week's QB23. While the stat line was nothing remarkable, he did lead Houston to a 26-3 victory.

Stroud's output earlier this season was more impressive. He ranks ninth among quarterbacks with 18.6 fantasy points per game. Stroud is also third in production premium, fourth in yards per attempt, and seventh in money throws. From Week 9 through Week 12, Stroud was particularly stunning, averaging 366.5 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. His 470-yard, five-touchdown showing versus Tampa Bay smashed the single-game record for passing yards by a rookie.

The Texans will conclude the regular season with a crucial Saturday matchup versus the Colts. Both teams are vying for a playoff spot; assuming the game does not end in a tie, the winner will clinch a playoff berth and the loser will be empty-handed. Stroud should be expected to return to his baseline level of production this weekend, making him an easy start in fantasy leagues. Watch to see how he performs in his biggest game yet as a pro.

Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)

Bijan Robinson joined the Atlanta Falcons with incredibly high expectations. The eighth-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Robinson became the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley went second in 2018. While fantasy managers have been frustrated with the involvement of teammate Tyler Allgeier despite Robinson's talent, he still got good volume. The Texas product is sixth among running backs in weighted opportunities, and he is fourth at the position in targets.

Robinson's efficiency has not been quite as elite as many fantasy managers had hoped it would be. He is averaging 0.78 fantasy points per opportunity, 35th-most among RBs. Robinson has generally been consistent, though. He has been a top-24 running back in PPR leagues in 13 of the 16 weeks he has played. Robinson also boasts five top-10 finishes to his name. As the RB19 on a per-game basis, he has been a valuable fantasy asset, even if his production has not matched his lofty RB3 ADP.

This weekend will see Atlanta face New Orleans in another pivotal game. Both teams remain in contention for the NFC South title, but both are also on the verge of missing the playoffs entirely. Check if Robinson can live up to the moment and turn in an excellent performance. He will be facing a difficult matchup; the Saints have been the fifth-toughest defense versus running backs this season.

De'Von Achane (RB, MIA)

Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane has been one of the most efficient players in fantasy football this season. The rookie out of Texas A&M is averaging 1.38 fantasy points per opportunity, placing him second at his position. He also leads all running backs with 7.9 yards per touch and an 11.8-percent breakaway run rate. Moreover, Achane is second with 6.7 true yards per carry. He has scored 17.8 PPR points per game, the fifth-highest mark among RBs.

Achane has produced some great games with the Dolphins. The most notable was his 233-yard, four-touchdown explosion against Denver in Week 3.  However, Achane has reached 20 PPR points on four other occasions, meaning he has achieved that figure in five of his 10 outings. Last week was one such game, as he picked up 137 total yards and scored one touchdown on 18 touches. This came with teammate Raheem Mostert inactive due to knee and ankle injuries.

Mostert is questionable to return on Sunday in a significant game for Miami. With the AFC East title up for grabs, Achane may be asked to step up once again in Mostert's absence. This would be excellent for his fantasy managers; Achane has been a top-eight running back in PPR leagues in each week where he has had at least 10 carries. However, over the past five weeks, the Bills have been the third-best defense versus running backs. This will be an interesting game to monitor no matter how you slice it.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

Bryce Young (QB, CAR)

While C.J. Stroud has had a strong rookie year, the same unfortunately cannot be said for Carolina's Bryce Young. Young is averaging only 10.8 fantasy points per game, the 28th-most among quarterbacks. He also ranks 29th with a 33.4 QBR, 37th with 5.5 yards per attempt, and 37th with 0.29 fantasy points per dropback. The first-overall pick of the 2023 draft has struggled mightily along with his team; the Panthers are 2-14 and have clinched the worst record in the NFL.

In Week 16, Young had his best game of the season. With 312 passing yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner showed off his potential despite losing to Green Bay. Sadly, his follow-up showing last week may have been his worst as a Panther. Young passed for a season-low 112 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. He averaged only 3.5 yards per pass attempt, an unacceptable number and his lowest of the year.

Young will be looking to bounce back this Sunday versus Tampa Bay. While the Buccaneers are still jockeying for a division title, the Panthers will simply be aiming to evaluate their players before heading into the offseason. Dynasty managers should do the same. See if Young can improve upon his previous output versus Tampa Bay. Back in Week 13, he threw for only 178 yards and an interception against the Buccaneers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA)

Seattle's Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first wide receiver drafted in this year's class, but his season has been overshadowed somewhat by the exploits of Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice, and others. Smith-Njigba did not reach 10 PPR points in a game until Week 7 when he caught four of seven targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. Since that week, the ex-Buckeye has been the WR34 and has averaged 10.8 PPR points per game. Smith-Njigba caught his fourth touchdown of the season last week versus Pittsburgh, although that was his only grab of the contest.

Smith-Njigba has gained 1.37 yards per route run, 60th-best among receivers. Additionally, he is 74th in yards per target, 57th in fantasy points per route run, and 58th in fantasy points per target. Moreover, Smith-Njigba is yet to top his personal best of 63 receiving yards, which he reached in both Week 7 and Week 9. While his week-to-week production has been merely respectable, he has shown plenty of flashes; his clutch touchdown catch to defeat the Eagles in Week 15 is just one such example.

This weekend may be the final opportunity this season for dynasty managers to assess Smith-Njigba's value moving forward. His game against the Cardinals should be enlightening. The Seahawks have everything to play for, as a loss would eliminate them from playoff contention. It would be wise to keep an eye on Smith-Njigba on Sunday to observe his performance in his team's critical regular-season finale.

Demario Douglas (WR, NE)

Demario Douglas was merely a sixth-round pick by the Patriots this past April, but he has made a name for himself as a rookie. Since Week 7, Douglas has averaged 7.0 targets, 4.6 receptions, and 50.6 receiving yards per game. He also has had at least five targets in each of the eight games he has suited up for in that span. The rookie from Liberty has scored at least 10 PPR points in five of his last eight outings.

A lot of Douglas's yardage has come after the catch. He is 24th among receivers with 326 yards after the catch, good for an average of 6.9 per reception. This makes up for his 83rd-ranked aDOT of 8.3 yards. Douglas has also earned 1.96 yards per route run, 31st at his position. He has been a solid weapon for the Patriots in a season where they have struggled to muster any offensive potency.

While New England's game versus the New York Jets on Sunday may have no playoff implications, it will still be a good opportunity to scout Douglas. He had his highest snap share of the season last week at 94.2 percent, and his 89.7-percent route participation rate was his best outside of Week 10. Against the Bills last Sunday, he caught three of five targets for 31 yards. See if his final appearance of the season amounts to more.

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