DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The John Deere Classic Golf Advice (2023)

July 3, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The John Deere Classic. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The John Deere Classic

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The John Deere Classic

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

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In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 1

Last Five Winners Of The John Deere Classic

Expected Cut-Line

TPC Deere Run

7,268 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass 

You can hear my course breakdown this week over on my Links & Locks podcast.

Overall, this is your prototypical birdie contest that will generate a massive increase in driving accuracy because of the general wide-open nature of the land. You are going to need to make putts to win, although I am not sure I would classify this as much of a putting contest as you will hear throughout the space. Give me players that will create opportunities and be able to make the putt above anything else.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

Strokes Gained Total TPC (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Short Courses + Easy Scoring (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

BOB % + Putting From 5-10 Feet (10%)

Driving Distance (5%)

GIR + Putting (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Top 50 In All Seven Categories: I didn't include distance since it was so small

This Week:

I will start updating these weekly on my model.

First Look Into Outright Bets

*** I think it is likely that Power might drift higher than this 40/1 number. 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

It has become the standard weekly answer of trying to handicap a board where most of the names in the $10,000 section are inside the top handful of my sheet. A lot of this comes down to gut and feel before we mix that in with ownership later in the week.

Cameron Young ($10,000) 

Hi, I am Spencer. Cam Young addict. Possible Paul Tesori addict. And I find myself not being able to stop going back to those two men.

The American ranks first in my model for weighted scoring this week, which includes carrying the top mark for weighted proximity. I know the recent form will leave a ton to be desired because he has failed to post a top 30 in the last seven starts. Still, the combination of reduced ownership and long-term data is being overly ignored for one of the best statistical fits in this contest.

Let's try this together again, Cameron. I am willing to make this work.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Adam Hadwin ($9,800) 

Hadwin ranked first in my model for expected strokes gained total in this field and led the event with five top-10 grades within the seven categories that I ran. I assume we will have to deal with a fair share of ownership, but my early numbers still have Hadwin outside the top 10 names for popularity.

Keith Mitchell ($9,600) 

It is hard to call a sub-30/1 golfer a sleeper, but the general disapproval of him within the space has turned Keith Mitchell into a highly intriguing name to keep in the back of your mind. Mitchell's TPC pedigree and total driving place him into an elite class in this watered-down field, and his reprojected scoring metrics continue this run for upside.

Seamus Power ($9,100) 

The recent form will keep most users off of Seamus Power, but let's not forget that the Irishman has historically been one of the best easy-course scorers in the world. My model has Power ranked second for this contest when faced with a birdie fest, but it stretches beyond that, repeatedly giving us this exact answer for easy-scoring TPC tracks.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Stephan Jaeger ($8,800) 

The market remains too low on Stephan Jaeger. An increase of only $100 from last week's field to this one wasn't enough of a boost to warrant looking elsewhere, and it feels like Jaeger is knocking on the door of victory. I haven't gotten there yet in the outright market, but I believe Jaeger is the best play in the $8,000s because of his built-in safety. Maybe that results in an eventual outright, but there are tons of other ways to consider Jaeger's floor.

Sepp Straka ($8,600) 

Straka ranked fourth in expected strokes gained total and seventh for GIR + putting. The 26-spot increase in weighted proximity gives us the course-specific answer that I always find important, and it will just come down to the Austrian being better with his par-five scoring than we got last week from Thomas Detry. Both had/have concerns in that area, but the relative ease of this venue will hopefully help Straka.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

K.H. Lee ($7,900) 

TPC Lee appears to have forgotten how to play golf. If he is going to have a "get-right" spot, it would be here.

Justin Lower ($7,000) 

Lower's irons are trending, and the high-end metrics continue to love his potential in these birdie contests.

I will keep it to the two names that I placed outright wagers on this week. We can get into a deeper outlook on this week's Bettor Golf Pod of the other options, but I do believe there is enough value in this $7,000 range to look around.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Greyson Sigg ($6,900) 

Let's see where the ownership trends. Sigg kept popping in my model last week at the Rocket Mortgage and may be sitting on a big round if he can make a handful of putts.

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