Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets - Buy/Sell for Fantasy Baseball (Week 14)

Trade candidates to buy or sell in fantasy baseball after Week 14 of the 2023 MLB season. Ben Rosener lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball. It's almost as important as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and witness their production improve that can truly tip the scales in your favor in terms of the standings.

The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.

Here are some candidates who are currently undervalued and worth pursuing in trades, as well as some overvalued players who you should consider dealing if they currently occupy a spot on your roster.

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Undervalued Players To Trade For

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Seattle Mariners

Hernandez was mentioned in this column earlier this season as an undervalued player to trade for considering all the loud contact he was making, the chasm between his wOBA and xwOBA, and a rather low BABIP.

At the time, the slugger was hitting just .191 with a .255 on-base percentage, two home runs, and a .170 ISO in 51 plate appearances.

Fast forward to late June and Hernandez’s season-long stat line is still being impacted by that slow start. Or rather, his numbers still look decidedly unideal.

On the season, the former Blue Jays outfielder is batting .250 with a .296 on-base percentage, 15 home runs, and four stolen bases in 328 plate appearances. He also ranks in just the sixth percentile league-wide in strikeout rate with a 32.1% metric and his walk rate (5.2%, ninth percentile) and whiff rate (34.4%, seventh percentile) aren’t all that much better.

But, Hernandez is also sporting a .342 xwOBA when he is making contact, a number that's still noticeably higher than his actual wOBA (.320). Elsewhere, the 30-year-old’s 13.6% barrel rate is right in line with his career numbers and his .490 xSLG sits in the 86^th percentile league-wide.

TeOscar Hernandez’s Barrel Rates By Season:

• 2016: 4.1%-barrel rate, 112 PA
• 2017: 17.0%-barrel rate, 95 PA
• 2018: 15.5%-barrel rate, 523 PA
• 2019: 11.7%-barrel rate, 464 PA
• 2020: 18.0%-barrel rate, 207 PA
• 2021: 13.9%-barrel rate, 595 PA
• 2022: 15.0%-barrel rate, 535 PA
• 2023: 13.6%-barrel rate, 324 PA

And that slow start from before that Hernandez was going through? That’s a thing of the past.

Since May 3, the outfielder is hitting .285 with a .335 on-base percentage, eight home runs, three stolen bases, a 12.8% barrel rate and a 49.6% hard-hit rate in 203 plate appearances.

But, in part because of that slow start and a generally low walk rate, it might make another fantasy manager in your league more apt to trade Hernandez away. If that’s the case and you’re in need of power production in the outfield, Teoscar Hernandez makes for an ideal trade target.

Overvalued Players To Trade Away

Scott McGough, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Scott McGough has largely been excellent for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season, pitching to a 2.41 ERA and a 3.55 FIP in 41 innings spread across 36 innings. He’s added 49 strikeouts in the process while scattering just 14 walks and five home runs.

The 33-year-old has been particularly effective in missing bats. Armed with a split-finger offering (40.4% whiff rate) and a slider (45.2% whiff rate) that are both sporting whiff rates north of 40%, it probably comes as no surprise that the reliever ranks rather highly in terms of overall bat-missing metrics.

Entering play Wednesday, McGough ranked in the 95^th percentile in chase rate (35.5%), the 87^th percentile in strikeout rate (30.8%), and the 85^th percentile (31.7%) in overall whiff rate.

At times, the right-hander has looked locked into something of a timeshare in Arizona where the closer’s role is concerned.

McGough (six saves), Andrew Chafin (eight saves), and Miguel Castro (seven saves) have accounted for all but one of the Diamondbacks' converted saves this season, though McGough does own five of the team’s seven saves in June.

And that right there is the crucial bit, as the right-hander may very well be on his way to establishing himself as the primary closer in Arizona.

However, this is a repeat of a trend we’ve seen earlier in the season with the Diamondbacks, only with Chafin as the primary ninth-inning option. In March and April, the left-hander logged four of Arizona’s seven saves. No other pitcher registered more than one.

The next month, Arizona’s eight saves were split evenly between Chafin and Castro with four apiece.

If anything, this has the look of a continued committee situation. And while McGough could very well distance himself from the competition as the top option for saves in Arizona, there’s a decent chance that won’t be the case due to how the team has utilized their bullpen in 2023.

If another manager in your league is buying into the fact that McGough will be the primary closer moving forward and is willing to part with fantasy trade capital that lines up with a full-time closer with above-average bat-missing ability, now might be the time to explore trading away Scott McGough.

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