RADIO
The 2022 rookie class is shaping up to be a very strong one for fantasy managers. Last week, Chris Olave had a great showing in a losing effort for New Orleans, catching seven passes for 106 yards. Seahawks rookie running back Kenneth Walker III ran the ball 23 times for 167 yards and two scores to beat the Chargers, and Houston's Dameon Pierce saw 24 touches for 117 scrimmage yards.
This Thursday, we saw a few solid performances from rookies. Baltimore tight end Isaiah Likely had the best game of his career so far, catching six of his seven targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. Moreover, Tampa Bay running back Rachaad White gained 43 yards from scrimmage, the second-highest total of his short time in the NFL.
Whether you're a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I will be breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column will be split into two parts: one pertaining to players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
Few rookies have had a quicker ascension this season than Kenneth Walker. The standout tailback for Seattle began the year splitting time with Rashaad Penny in the Seahawks backfield. Through his first three games as a pro, Walker had totaled merely 15 carries for 58 yards. That situation suddenly changed in Week 5, however, when Penny went down with a broken fibula, ending his season. In his last two games, Walker has averaged 22 carries, 132 rushing yards, and 1.5 touchdowns.
KENNETH. WALKER. TO. THE. HOUSE. 🏠
📺: #SEAvsLAC on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/HyjkGpXIek pic.twitter.com/znsicu868r— NFL (@NFL) October 23, 2022
Walker's profile is astounding across the board. Athletically, he is elite; he runs a 4.38-second 40-yard dash, a time that sits at the 98th percentile for running backs. His background is tremendous; his 50.2 percent college dominator was at the 99th percentile. Finally, his metrics from his play this year are amazing as well; he leads the league in juke rate and breakaway run rate, is second in yards created per touch, and is 11th in fantasy points per opportunity.
Walker should continue his hot streak against an upstart Giants squad this week. Although New York has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season, their defense has surrendered the fifth-most rushing yards. There is also no reason to expect Walker's hefty workload to change. The rookie may be a rare example of a "buy-high" target; depending on your league, your opponents' perception of Walker may not have caught up to his true value.
Chris Olave (WR, NO)
Like Kenneth Walker, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave has been among the top-performing rookies in the league this season. Olave has earned a top-20 WR weekly finish in each of his last four outings. His total stats on the year of 32 receptions for 495 yards and two touchdowns put him as the WR19, one spot behind established star A.J. Brown. Olave has inarguably had a great start to his NFL career.
Remarkably, multiple indicators suggest there is still significant room for his numbers to improve. Olave has suffered from just a 66.1 percent catchable target rate, 76th among receivers. His target accuracy ranks even lower at 83rd. Furthermore, Olave ranks first in air yards, first in unrealized air yards, and first in deep targets. Olave has been targeted on a lot of inaccurate deep balls this year; once those start connecting with just a little more regularity, his production will really explode.
Chris Olave saw 307 air yards in Week 2 - that’s more than any player has seen this season
That’s the 3rd most a player has seen in any game in the Next Gen Stats era - only Mike Evans (2016) and Marquise Brown (2021) saw more
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 19, 2022
Olave has already emerged as a player to be started weekly by fantasy managers. He is expected to be matched up against Rock Ya-Sin, a corner who has yielded the second-fewest fantasy points per target this year, on about half of his snaps this week against Las Vegas. Nonetheless, the Raiders have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wideouts in 2022, so it's not as if the matchup is completely brutal. It will be interesting to watch if Olave can match on Sunday the career-high 14 targets he got last week.
Wan'Dale Robinson (WR, NYG)
Wan'Dale Robinson spent the first chunk of the season out with a knee injury that he suffered in Week 1. Since coming back in Week 6, however, Robinson has shown some promise. In his return against the Ravens, he caught three of four targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. Last week, he made six grabs on eight targets for 50 yards in a win over Jacksonville. The rookie out of Kentucky is on the rise as we near the halfway point of the season.
That observation is supported by more figures as well. In Week 6, his snap share was just 22.6 percent; last week, it was all the way up to 67.1 percent. His routes run last week were also much higher than the week prior, as he ran 23 in Week 7 compared to 10 in Week 6. The Giants have had very little go right at the receiver position this season, with injuries and struggles galore. Robinson's increase in usage suggests that he is making a move to seize the top role as Daniel Jones's primary target.
With rumors swirling as the trade deadline approaches, New York may swing a deal for someone like Jerry Jeudy or Chase Claypool. What we've seen so far, though, is actually the team subtracting a receiver by shipping Kadarius Toney to Kansas City. Until and unless the Giants make an addition to the receiving room, Wan'Dale Robinson will be the top fantasy WR on the squad. While his upside is capped due to New York's run-heavy offense, a further rise in Robinson's usage this week against Seattle will only improve his outlook.
NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues
Malik Willis (QB, TEN)
The Tennessee Titans have a conundrum at the quarterback position this week. Starter Ryan Tannehill has been serviceable this season, posting middle-of-the-pack marks in true completion percentage, true passer rating, and adjusted yards per attempt. Moreover, the Titans sit at 4-2 and are leading the AFC South, making a change under center unlikely.
However, Tannehill is currently dealing with an ankle injury that has left him questionable for Sunday's game against Houston. Tannehill did not practice on Wednesday or Friday, but he did to a limited extent on Thursday. With his status very much uncertain for this weekend, third-round rookie Malik Willis has been taking first-team snaps in practice.
#Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is questionable for Sunday vs. the #Texans due to his ankle injury. Rookie Malik Willis would start if he can’t go.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 28, 2022
There's a real chance that Willis gets his first career start this week. Even if he doesn't, Tannehill may be forced to exit the game if his injury is too bothersome; we saw a similar situation unfold last week in New England involving Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe.
Willis has seen very limited playing time this season. He has attempted just four passes, all of which came near the end of a Week 2 blowout loss to Buffalo. Any opportunity for dynasty managers to get an extended look at Willis in regular-season game action will be invaluable, and such a possibility is currently presenting itself. The rookie from Liberty has a very strong arm and excellent mobility, but he has struggled with his accuracy and mechanics in the past. Dynasty managers should be on the watch for how his development has progressed.
UPDATE: Tannehill has been ruled out for this Sunday's contest. Willis will indeed make his first career start.
Tyler Allgeier (RB, ATL)
When Cordarrelle Patterson went down in Week 4 with a knee injury, fifth-round rookie Tyler Allgeier immediately seized the opportunity to make a name for himself. The BYU product gained 84 yards on 10 carries that week against Cleveland, and he added one catch for 20 yards. Patterson was subsequently placed on injured reserve, meaning that Allgeier would take over as the top option for a substantial period of time. Dynasty managers eagerly anticipated seeing what the rookie could do.
Unfortunately, Allgeier's three starts have been mostly disappointments. From Week 5 through Week 7, Allgeier gained just 146 yards on his 44 rushing attempts, good for a mere 3.3 yards per carry. Moreover, he hasn't even seen a target in that span; that 20-yard catch from Week 4 is one of just two receptions he's made all season. His mark of 0.54 fantasy points per opportunity is weak, as is his production premium which ranks 56th among qualifying tailbacks.
Dynasty managers should be concerned about the inefficiency they've seen out of Allgeier recently. Week 8 may present the last opportunity to see Allgeier as Atlanta's lead back for the foreseeable future with Patterson eyeing a Week 9 return. Allgeier's game against Carolina will influence his perception moving forward and gives him a chance to end this stretch on a high note. The Panthers' anemic offense should lead to rushing opportunities for Allgeier throughout the contest as the game script shouldn't become unfavorable.
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
After Week 3, New York Jets receiver Garrett Wilson was being mentioned alongside Chris Olave at the top of the rookie WR lists. Since then, unlike Olave, Wilson has cooled off significantly. In the three games that Joe Flacco started at quarterback for the Jets, Wilson averaged 6.0 catches on 11.0 targets for 71.3 yards. With Zach Wilson at quarterback over the past four weeks, Garrett Wilson has averaged just 2.5 catches on 4.8 targets for 25.0 yards.
A big reason for this dropoff is the fact that the Jets have transitioned to a much more run-oriented offense. With Flacco under center, the team threw the ball an absurd 52 times per game; with Zach Wilson taking the snaps, they've averaged just 25.5 pass attempts, less than half of the previous figure. Garrett Wilson has seen his routes run fall as a result, down from 33.3 per game to 20.3 in those respective spans. His decline in production has less to do with him as a player and more to do with the offense as a whole.
A key thing to watch for this week with the Jets is if the run-first approach remains in place with starting running back Breece Hall on injured reserve. If it does, it'd be worthwhile for dynasty managers who are contending for their league's championship to explore selling Garrett Wilson for a piece or two that will contribute more immediately. Likewise, managers who are rebuilding should look to acquire Wilson at a relative discount. We've seen him perform well already; it's simply a matter of when he can return to that level.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
