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Hey everyone and happy Friday! We have all 30 MLB teams in action today and an awesome 14-game main slate for DFS. But this article is going to focus on betting, not DFS, and I'm sharing some of my favorite prop bets, sides, and totals with you for tonight's games here at RotoBaller.
Last week, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Friday, July 8th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Advice: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
MLB Betting Advice: Pitcher Prop Bets
Lucas Giolito o6.5 vs. DET (-120 DK)
I didn’t bet Cease o8.5 yesterday and I am glad since he finished with 8. But that still shows us that Detroit can be had by major strikeout pitchers. Gio hasn’t been anywhere near as consistent or dominant as Cease, but he has 13 strikeouts over his last two starts, going six strong innings against the Angels and Giants. If he goes six here today, I think he manages 7 or 8, he certainly has the stuff with a strong 13% SwStr%.
Tyler Anderson o5.5 vs. CHC (+120 DK)
I was hoping to get Anderson at 4.5 and I should have known better. The books have been burned by him too many times. But I also have been burned by him several times, too. I can’t ignore the Cubs’ L14 K% against lefties which is nearly 30% and the fact he got them seven times in five innings earlier this year gives me an extra layer of hope.
Shane McClanahan o8.5 vs. CIN (+118 FD)
Just bet the over on Shane every time. He has 10 in his last two starts and 9 or more now in seven starts this year. The Reds are fairly average against LHP, but I am betting on Shane’s talent and recent form here, he’s looked unhittable.
Chris Bassitt o5.5 vs. MIA (-122 FD)
Bassitt will be seeing Miami for the third straight time, which is weird, but he had to skip a few starts due to testing positive for COVID. He was pretty pissed about having to miss games and said in an interview he should never have admitted he had it, which is a really dumb thing to say, but you can tell he’s anxious to get back out there and pitch. He has 14 strikeouts over 13.1 innings against Miami in those two starts and he’s fresh and rested. If he pitches 6-7 innings, it’s hard to imagine him not getting 6 whiffs. DK still has him at o4.5 but at -210, that will change soon.
Aaron Ashby o5.5 vs. PIT (-108 FD)
This is a smash play for me. Pittsburgh continues to whiff at a huge rate against lefties and Ashby got six against them last time out, even while allowing four runs and not finishing four innings! His numbers are still good and I think he’s getting a bit unlucky to be honest. His stuff is fantastic, he just has to avoid walks. The Ks should be there.
Zack Wheeler o5.5 vs. STL (-116 FD)
In another one of these “this guy just saw this team” match-ups, Wheeler faces the Cards only one week after he blanked them over seven frames. Now he only whiffed five in that game, but that was only one of two games in which he had less than six since April. He should pitch deep here and I like him to get 6 or more as that STL K rate to righties has been climbing.
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MLB Betting Advice: Sides and Totals
I am keeping it super simple today, no F5s or team totals or any of that jazz, just three moneyline bets as nothing else really popped in my early morning run.
KC ML (-115 DK)
The Royals impressed me in that Houston series and I think they are trending up. Brady Singer is on the mound today and I give him the edge over Aaron Civale. The Guardians are a hard team to figure out, but their bats are very cold right now.
PHI ML (-110 DK)
I am backing Wheeler here mainly. Waino has been solid in his own right, but I think the Phillies’ offense matches up better against him than the Cards do against Zack.
NYY ML (-145 DK)
Super Mario (aka Nestor Cortes) is on the bump for the Yankees, while the Red Sox have to keep rolling out youngsters and are going with Connor Seabold. He’s not been able to stop big league hitters yet, despite having some solid stuff. I’ll back the Yanks bats against him and I think Cortes is crafty enough to limit the Sox bats. The advantage in the pen clearly goes to the Yanks as well.
Ok, that’s it! Happy Friday everyone! So much baseball today! I hope we have a winning night and as always, thanks so much for your support in this endeavor!
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