6 Fantasy Football Busts and Overvalued Draft Picks: Joey Pollizze's "Do Not Draft" List (2025)

Joey's fantasy football busts and overvalued picks for 2025 drafts. His do not draft list for fantasy mangers to fade and avoid in upcoming fantasy football drafts.

The 2025 NFL Season is quickly approaching, meaning it's time to start getting into fantasy football mode. These next few months are a great time to start identifying which players could be value picks in the later rounds and which players will be off your draft board completely.

In this article, we will look at six players you shouldn't select in drafts. These players are going all throughout the early-to-middle round of fantasy drafts and are considered overvalued busts heading into the 2025-2026 season. You should be avoiding these six players at all costs.

So, who is on this do-not-draft list? Should fantasy managers really be out on these six players in drafts? Let's dive in and find out.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

Tyreek Hill, WR - Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill was one of the safest first-round picks last year. He finished as the overall WR2 in PPR formats in back-to-back seasons in 2022 and 2023 and totaled 3,509 receiving yards during those two years (most in the NFL). Therefore, Hill was easily a top-5 pick in fantasy drafts in 2024.

Unfortunately, Hill turned out to be one of the biggest busts at the position. He finished as the WR18 in PPR formats and failed to top 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2019.

Hill did not have a solid fantasy season by any means. He dealt with a wrist injury for most of the year, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa also missed six games due to injuries. Those two injuries were definitely a big reason why the veteran averaged just 12.8 PPR fantasy points per game.

With Hill cleaning up his wrist this offseason, many believe that Hill will return to being a solid WR1 option. He is fully past that wrist injury, and the wideout has been one of the most consistent fantasy options in recent years. The veteran has finished as a top-6 fantasy wide receiver in four of the past five seasons.

Nevertheless, Hill's poor 2024 season is extremely noticeable. It seemed like he lost a step, as his air yards share (37.9%), yards per route run (1.92), and dominator rating (25.8%) were all way down from the prior year. For context, the eight-time Pro Bowler ranked second in air yards share (44%), first in yards per route run (3.88), and first in dominator rating (43.1%) in 2023.

🎥 Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill in practice today. (@MiamiDolphins) #PhinsUp pic.twitter.com/iMpZpa3fkc

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) June 3, 2025

As a result, Hill is the first player on this list. He is entering his age-31 season, and this is usually the time wide receivers start to fall off a cliff. That makes him a risky pick in the second and third rounds of 2025 fantasy football drafts.

Tagovailoa's health remains a huge question mark, considering he has played 13 games or fewer in four of his five NFL seasons, and the Dolphins could continue to spread the ball around on offense.

Jaylen Waddle is still in Miami, Jonnu Smith caught 88 passes in 2024, and De'Von Achane should see around 80 targets again through the air. Miami doesn't need to feed Hill like they used to. Even though Smith has been traded to Pittsburgh, Hill's age and declining production make him a bust candidate at his ADP.

James Cook, RB - Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook was a consistent RB1 option for fantasy managers last season. He finished as the RB8 in PPR formats and averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Cook also quadrupled his rushing touchdown totals from his first two seasons by scoring 16 times on the ground in 2024.

With back-to-back strong RB1 seasons for Cook, he will definitely be a popular pick early in fantasy drafts. However, there are some concerns with Cook entering the 2025-2026 fantasy season.

For starters, we should expect some touchdown regression from the running back. He ranked second in total touchdowns (18) last year and had a whopping 7.3% touchdown rate. Both of those numbers will come down in 2025, especially since Cook scored just nine total touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons.

His snap share is also something to take note of. He played under 50% of the Bills' offensive snaps in seven straight games to end the season, and Ray Davis should only be more involved in Year 2. In those seven contests, Cook averaged just 13 touches per game.

As a result, the running back is someone to pass on in drafts. The limited snap share and potential touchdown regression are why Cook is on this list.

Patrick Mahomes, QB - Kansas City Chiefs

There's no doubt that Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the best signal-caller in the league. He is a three-time Super Bowl champion and two-time regular-season MVP in his first eight NFL seasons. From a fantasy perspective, though, Mahomes continues to be a disappointing option.

He has finished outside the top-8 at the quarterback position in consecutive seasons and wasn't really a solid QB1 option for most of the 2024 campaign. Mahomes finished as a top-12 quarterback in just six of 16 games. That resulted in the 29-year-old finishing as the QB11 in all formats, the lowest fantasy finish of his career.

Even after posting the worst fantasy numbers of his career last year, Mahomes currently has a QB6 ADP in drafts. That's too rich for a quarterback who hasn't finished that high since 2022. Therefore, the Chiefs quarterback should be on your do-not-draft list in 2025.

Will having Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, and Travis Kelce in 2025 make Patrick Mahomes a much better fantasy quarterback?

Or is it Matt Nagy holding him back?

— Jake's Fantasy Football (@JakesFFootball) June 17, 2025

The Chiefs haven't needed to rely on him a lot over the past two years, and his limited rushing makes him a risky pick in the fifth round. Mahomes has rushed for under 400 yards in every season of his career. 

There are just better quarterbacks to take later on in drafts. He doesn't nearly have the ceiling of quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts, and his passing numbers have taken a step back in recent years. The two-time MVP has thrown for under 28 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons.

Mark Andrews, TE - Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews really struggled out of the gate in 2024. He averaged 4.4 PPR fantasy points through the first five weeks and was a popular drop candidate early in the year. However, Andrews turned things around shortly after while emerging as a reliable tight end option from Week 6 onward.

He averaged 13.9 PPR fantasy points in the final 12 weeks and scored in double figures in 10 of those 12 contests. Andrews scored the fifth most fantasy points at the tight end position during this span, only behind George Kittle, the previously mentioned Smith, Brock Bowers, and Trey McBride. So, it's not shocking to see the tight end have a top-100 ADP in drafts.

Nonetheless, Andrews is not a great selection in 2025 fantasy drafts. He had the second-lowest target share of his career (15.3%) in 2024, and we could expect some touchdown regression from the veteran. The soon-to-be 30-year-old had an astonishing 17.7% touchdown rate last year after catching 11 touchdown passes on 55 receptions.

That simply won't happen again. Andrews was extremely touchdown-dependent and caught four passes or fewer in 13 of 17 games. With Isaiah Likely also entering the final year of his rookie contract, the Ravens could decide to give him more opportunities in the passing game to see what his full potential could look like.

That makes Andrews a perfect do-not-draft target at his 83.5 ADP on Sleeper. Both Denver Broncos tight end Evan Engram and Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku are better value picks at the position, especially since both tight ends are going later than him.

Rome Odunze, WR - Chicago Bears

It wasn't a complete surprise to see Chicago Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze not make an impact in Year 1. He had a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams throwing passes to him and competed with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet for targets in this offense. So, his WR49 PPR finish was understandable. 

Now, entering his second year, some fantasy managers believe Odunze could take that next step in 2025. Williams should be better in Year 2, and offensive guru Ben Johnson joined this team as the head coach in the offseason. Johnson comes over from Detroit after helping lead that Lions offense to three straight top-5 offensive finishes.

However, Odunze is not a surefire breakout candidate this season. He still faces competition for targets with Moore and Kmet, and the Bears selected two playmakers in the first two rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft (Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III). Both Loveland and Burden should be involved in some capacity in their rookie campaigns.

So, it's more of a logjam on offense than some might think. Odunze also didn't necessarily rank well in his rookie season in 2024. His route win rate (37.5%), win rate versus man coverage (24.2%), and yards per route run (1.33) ranked outside the top 75 among all wide receivers.

While those numbers should improve with Johnson calling the plays, it might be hard to envision 130-plus targets for him this year.

That makes him a potential bust in drafts. The Bears could easily spread the ball around on offense, and Williams isn't a complete quarterback just yet. There are safer and higher upside wideouts to take at this point in drafts, like Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, and Khalil Shakir.

Isiah Pacheco, RB - Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco was going early in the third round of drafts last season. He was coming off an RB15 fantasy campaign and was set to lead the Kansas City backfield once again. Sadly, Pacheco suffered a devastating fibula injury in Week 2, which cost him most of the year.

Although Pacheco didn't look like himself upon his return in Week 13, he should be back to full strength in 2025. The 26-year-old will be about one year removed from his fractured fibula when he hits the field in Week 1 in a few months. That's undoubtedly a good sign that we could see the Chiefs running back return to dominance this year.

The problem, though, is that we could see more running backs get chances in this offense. Pacheco will likely lead this backfield, but Kareem Hunt is lurking in his rearview mirror after the team signed him to a one-year deal in the offseason. Hunt did a nice job in that RB1 role for the Chiefs last year, rushing for 728 yards and seven touchdowns.

Kansas City also brought in Elijah Mitchell through free agency and selected Brashard Smith in the seventh round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Given that Smith has been getting some reps in the red zone with the first-team offense, he could have somewhat of a role as a rookie. That surely doesn't bode well for Pacheco.

Mahomes ended the period in the red zone with touchdowns to RB Brashard Smith and Kelce, who navigated soft coverage and sat down in a middle-window for Mahomes. Even though it was a 2-yard touchdown, Kelce danced for the crowd.

— Pete Sweeney (@pgsween) June 17, 2025

As a result, Pacheco is the final member of the do-not-draft list. He might not see that high snap share that we all want, and he is coming off a major injury. There is a chance that he still isn't fully himself after getting seven screws inserted in his lower leg during that fibula surgery last season.

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