3 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Breakout Candidates - National League Edition

March 22, 2025

Corbin's 3 starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts and sleepers from the NL, which have an ADP beyond pick 200. His favorite 2025 SP draft value picks.

When looking at National League breakout starting pitchers, we want players who haven't been pushed up the draft boards based on past success. That typically means these players go in the middle to late rounds past pick 200 or so as an arbitrary cutoff. Bias aside, these starting pitchers have some intriguing metrics, team contexts, or potential opportunities to suggest a breakout season in 2025.

In fantasy sports, breakouts occur with a mixture of luck and skills, though we could argue the latter matters more. We have three starting pitchers to target as breakout starting pitcher candidates in the National League. Everyone talks about Cristopher Sanchez, Clay Holmes, and Ryan Weathers, so we'll skip those.

Like my typical columns, we'll scour the ADP, examine the skills, and provide actionable data for why these starting pitchers could break out in 2025. We'll pound the table for the second one while unexpectedly covering three lefties.

MacKenzie Gore, SP, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 194.5 (Since March 1)

Gore popped up in the concerning section for starting pitchers and ATC Projections. The projection systems continue to disagree with Gore. That's evident in Ariel Cohen's Vol metric in the ATC Projections, where Gore holds the 16th-highest Vol, indicating the projections have conflicting thoughts.

Gore had his best season in 2024, though he still earned -$3. His ERA (3.90) aligned with his xERA (3.96), though it came with an awful WHIP. It's worth noting Gore's xWHIP was closer to 1.30 at 1.29, similar to the projections. Gore had a mediocre ball rate of 35.9 percent in 2024, close to his career average (36.6 percent).

He flashed an above-average swinging-strike rate (13 percent), with the changeup leading the arsenal at 22.4 percent, a career-high. Gore's curveball swinging-strike rate (14 percent) and slider (16.9 percent) remained close to his career averages.

He adjusted his release points in 2024, leading to a lower arm angle. Gore's vertical release point dropped by about 1.5 inches, with his horizontal release point moving more than 3.5 inches farther away from the midline of his body.

Besides Gore's release point changes, he added velocity on the four-seamer, slider, and sweeper at a significant margin of one mph or more. With the release point and arm angle adjustments, Gore lost vertical movement on the slider. Meanwhile, Gore's curveball and changeup gained drop, typically leading to more whiffs, which was evident in the offspeed pitch in 2024.

Gore's profile still has some concerns, especially considering he appears to have one effective pitch to either side of the plate. His curveball was his best offering versus lefties (.301 wOBA, .258 xwOBA), with the other three pitches allowing a .350 wOBA or higher.

Gore has a better approach against right-handed hitters, with the curveball (.245 wOBA, .231 xwOBA) leading the charge, and all other pitches resulting in a wOBA under .350. One final note about Gore's profile involves his four-seamer's above-average induced vertical break at 17.6 inches, which theoretically should generate more whiffs with the near-elite extension.

A breakout season for Gore might not be mindblowing, but it looks more like a 3.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a slight step forward in strikeout skills, leading to sniffing at 200 punchouts.

Nick Lodolo, SP, Cincinnati Reds

NFBC ADP: 221 (Since March 1)

When a starting pitcher has a consistent xERA around 3.40 to 3.60, but the outcomes were over one run higher, that tells us they have skills. Injuries have been an issue for Lodolo, with a lower back issue (2022), calf tendinitis (2023), and several other issues (calf, groin, left middle finger) in 2024. His injuries caused him to miss over two months on the injured list over the past three seasons.

Lodolo has consistently shown above-average skills, with a 12.4 percent swinging-strike rate in 2024. The curveball has typically been nasty, with an 18.1 percent swinging-strike rate in 2024, two points below the career average. Interestingly, Lodolo's changeup swinging-strike rate jumped to 17.3 percent in 2023, but fell back to 13.4 percent in 2024, similar to the career numbers.

His changeup remains his best pitch from a vertical movement standpoint, an above-average one. The results improved via the changeup against right-handed hitters, as one of his best pitches, allowing a .280 wOBA (.316 xwOBA).

With Lodolo's low arm angle (19 degrees), his arsenal unsurprisingly leans toward more movement profiles from side to side. That's especially true, considering his four-seamer, sinker, and changeup fade toward his arm side, leaving the curveball as his pitch going low and inside to right-handed hitters.

We'll want to monitor Lodolo's curveball, which lost 3.5 inches of horizontal movement, leading to the breaking ball not sweeping away from hitters as much. That led us to find out why, which appears to be his arm angle changes via a lower vertical release point (three inches) and a horizontal one closer to the midline (two inches). Theoretically, this leads to fewer inches of sweep on breaking pitches, especially the curveball.

That seems fixable for Lodolo and something to monitor in 2025. Lodolo's price has been discounted enough, and his skills warrant us making him a priority anytime around pick 200. A breakout season for Lodolo would involve volume and an ERA like his xERA (3.40 to 3.60) with the stuff for more whiffs.

Matthew Boyd, SP, Chicago Cubs

NFBC ADP: 324 (Since March 1)

Boyd was like Nick Pivetta, where we kept dreaming of him being better than the results based on the underlying metrics. Besides Boyd's injury-shortened seasons, he hasn't had an ERA under 4.00 with more than 100 innings pitched. However, he has the potential to break out in 2025.

Injuries impacted Boyd over the past two seasons while recovering from Tommy Johny surgery. He made eight starts with the Guardians in 2024, with an xERA (3.96) over one run higher than his ERA (2.72). We'll want to be cautious with the small samples over the past few seasons, though he teased us with high-end swinging-strike rates above 14 percent in 2023 and 2024.

For fun, Boyd boasts a 15.9 percent swinging-strike rate in spring training as of March 15. Boyd raised his vertical release point by over three inches in spring training compared to the past few seasons. His horizontal release point shifted about an inch or more away from the midline of his body, slightly impacting his arm angle.

Matthew Boyd boasts a 15.9% swinging-strike rate in Spring Training. He raised his vertical release point by over three inches, with a horizontal release point about an inch or so away from the midline of his body in Spring Training compared to the past few seasons.

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— Corbin (@corbin_young21) March 17, 2025

We're dealing with a small sample of 41 four-seamers in spring training. However, the four-seamer added over an inch of induced vertical break (15.2 inches) with the release point changes. The other pitch worth noting with movement profile changes in spring training involves Boyd's slider, dropping around eight to 10 inches fewer in spring training (35 inches) compared to past seasons (44 to 46 inches).

Fortunately, Boyd's changeup hasn't shifted with the arm angle changes in spring training. That's notable because his changeup (18.3 percent) and slider (18.1 percent) elicited tons of whiffs in 2024, similar to his career averages around 16-18 percent for each.

Boyd has a path to break out in 2025 going around pick 300, yet we've seen above-average skills when healthy over the past two years. At Boyd's price, it's a low-risk, high-reward selection to target for a breakout pitcher.

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