When it comes to fantasy football, the decision to draft a player is often heavily influenced by a ‘what have you done for me lately’ bias. Owners often place a greater stock in the most recent successes or failures of players than they do the much larger picture. Consider Tennessee Titans wide receiver Eric Decker, who was drafted on the round six/seven turn in 2016 before multiple confounding injuries ended his season and resulted in his stock falling all the way to the back of the tenth round in 2017 mock drafts. Yet, owners are quick to forget that Decker was living up to his touchdown-snagging expectations in the two complete games he played, catching eight receptions for 163 yards and two touchdowns.

All it takes is one injury-riddled season to apply the Glass Joe label, meaning there is plenty of opportunity to zig while others zag by looking for value in players who have a great chance to exceed expectations. Detroit Lions’ running back Ameer Abdullah is one of those guys, with plenty of ability, an ADP currently sitting in the seventh round, and a good chance to return on your investment.

I’m sure that many concerns come to mind immediately: he won’t stay healthy, he’s stuck in a dismal backfield situation, and the Lions are a pass-happy offense! In this article, I’ll be addressing many of these problems in the process of explaining why you shouldn’t immediately write off a player who could be at the head of a reformed Detroit Lions rushing attack.

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Expectations Have Never Been Lower

Do you remember back in 2015 when a preseason game stat-line of 67 yards off of seven carries (including a shifty 45-yard scamper) caused Ameer Abdullah to draw comparisons to Barry Sanders? The Abdullah hype-train was chugging along at an unprecedented pace after the rookie out of Nebraska began to show that he made up for his lack of ideal size with sheer play-making ability. He seemed poised to be the next big offensive weapon in Detroit and was being drafted as such in fantasy football leagues, going ahead of more established runners like Jonathan Stewart and Doug Martin despite having never played a snap in the NFL.

Obviously, the Ameer Abdullah we’ve seen in his first two seasons hasn’t lived up to those lofty expectations. Expecting a rookie running back to come in and prosper almost immediately in a Detroit Lions offense that had thrown the ball 62% of the time in the previous season (and proceeded to pass a league-leading 66% of the time in 2015) with a bottom-10 rushing offensive line was ludicrous. Even though he played 16 games for the Lions in his rookie year with nine starts, he was forced to play through a shoulder injury late in the season that capped his production and required off-season surgery. In a subsequent sophomore season where Abdullah was taken in fantasy drafts in the late seventh round range, he had his season cut short due to a foot injury suffered in week two. Both of these previous seasons have sunk his draft stock into the depths of running back irrelevance, ultimately resulting in his current seventh/eighth round ADP.

 

His Potential for Fantasy Relevance isn't All Hype

There seems to be a misconception that Ameer Abdullah’s 'underwhelming' rookie season served as a red flag for drafting him in the future, yet his average of 4.2 yards per carry (which rose to 4.7 over the final eight games of the regular season) was better than quite a few current stud running backs’ rookie seasons. His evaded tackles per touch (or juke rate) of 29% was ranked within the top 30 for NFL running backs and his catch rate of 65% doesn’t jump out as a cause for concern. What’s more, Abdullah’s highlights in 2015 show the kind of special athlete he can be at the NFL level. He has exceptional lateral agility and explosiveness in finishing his runs, exhibiting decisive ball carrier vision in finding open cut-back lanes and making defenders miss.

Player	Games Played	Yards Per Carry
Ameer Abdullah	16	4.2
Matt Forte	16	3.9
LeVeon Bell	13	3.5
Devonta Freeman	16	3.8

 

Ameer Abdullah’s ranking around RB26 in standard and PPR scoring going into 2017 seems largely predicated on him having already hit his ceiling in a crowded backfield and being a major risk for re-injury.  However, much like with the Eric Decker analogy in the opening to this article, Abdullah did show glimpses of what could have been in a second year where he averaged 5.6 yards per carry on 18 rushes and caught five passes for 57 yards in those two games. The Lions clearly had plans for him as an integral part of their offense, which makes it that much more tragic that Abdullah's season was cut short. We expect a bounce-back season from Decker in Tennessee, so I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt for Abdullah despite his small sample size.

Abdullah is certainly at a greater risk than most players in the NFL for a repeat injury, having already suffered both a torn labrum and a foot fracture. However, missing nearly the entire 2016 season might have been the best thing for Abdullah, as the number of days since the last injury is an extremely important predictor of determining risk for future problems. Even though he never missed a single game in his four years at Nebraska, the NFL is definitely a more physical animal that Abdullah will need to adapt to if he is to keep the starting job. Thankfully, he has had the chance to go through another whole NFL off-season that can further prepare him for the on-field demands of in-game action.

 

Final Take: Abdullah is in his Best Fantasy Situation Yet

The cards are aligning for Ameer Abdullah’s best year in the NFL so far. Detroit did nothing to address their backfield situation through free agency or the NFL Draft, pass-catching back Theo Riddick is coming off surgeries on both wrists, and the offensive line has been bolstered through the additions of right tackle Rick Wagner and right guard T.J. Lang. In addition, Abdullah is reportedly feeling good as he goes through organized team activities and is more in line for a “featured role” in Detroit’s offense for the 2017 season than he ever has been.

Don’t expect the Lions to completely shy away from their pass-happy tendencies, nor should you expect them to finish tied for last with the Cleveland Browns in rush attempts like in 2016. In an ideal situation, Detroit would follow the Atlanta Falcons’ model of running back usage, giving around 55% of the rushing workload to Abdullah while utilizing Riddick as a situational pass-catching asset to take some pressure off on extended drives. This will be why monitoring how Lions’ offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter plans to deploy both backs with reports and preseason action will be crucial for final judgments.

An Ameer Abdullah who can stay on the field will get 200 touches in the 2017 season and could provide fantasy owners with unexpected levels of production. That being said, he is a running back that I wouldn’t consider reaching for any sooner than his seventh round ADP in large part due to how low his floor could be with a healthy Riddick come August. At that value, Abdullah has a great chance of providing a significant return on investment as a low-end RB2/flex play at a discounted cost on draft day.

 

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