RADIO
The NFL's trade deadline was again a noteworthy affair, which is thankfully becoming a regular occurrence. While the offensive moves at the deadline were limited, there were several major moves on the defensive side of the ball. That's music to many IDP managers' ears. For fantasy purposes, we saw four trades that likely impacted IDP leagues. Two of those deals involved major stars who impact almost every team in every IDP format.
For my money, Chase Young’s trade will have the most fantasy impact of any deadline deal. Despite missing Week 1, Young is ninth in the NFL in quarterback pressures and 14th in pass rush win rate amongst qualifying edge rushers (over 50% of snaps). While San Francisco’s defensive tackles grade a notch below Washington’s, Nick Bosa is top three in the NFL in pressures and win rate. Expect Bosa to push more sacks toward Young and vice versa.
The second most impactful deal also involved the Commanders. Montez Sweat sits 30th in the NFL in pressures and 59th in pass rush win rate amongst qualifying edges. Those rates are low for someone who ranks eighth in the NFL in sacks. Most advanced data points suggest Sweat’s success is partially owed to the talented pass rushers he played with in Washington. He won’t have that help in Chicago, so his stock goes down while Young’s goes up.
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Stream: Jack Sanborn, LB, Chicago Bears
While Tremaine Edmunds reportedly avoided a season-ending injury in Week 8, reports suggest he should miss some time. That should mean Sanborn steps into more snaps, similar to how he performed after Roquan Smith was traded last year.
After Smith was traded in 2022, Sanborn became an immediate starter who saw 88% or more of the Bears' defensive snaps in every game he was healthy. That's significantly more than what he's seen this year. He averaged 11 tackles per game with that increased usage. Expect his usage to go back up, and it should result in elite fantasy production against a Saints team that gives Alvin Kamara a whopping 26 touches per game.
Stream: Kenny Moore II, DB, Indianapolis Colts
Moore is currently the 28th most rostered DB in fantasy and the 29th most started. He has a killer matchup against the Panthers that should elevate him up shallow boards, though.
Carolina is the second-highest volume passing offense in the NFL, and their top target (Adam Thielen) plays in the slot 68.2% of the time. Moore plays in the box or slot 70.6% of the time. Thielen is averaging 9.2 targets since Week 1.
Fade: Logan Wilson, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
We won't drop Wilson out of our LB2 tier. He's too talented, and his coverage skills mean he could snag an interception while covering Dalton Kincaid. Wilson could also hit double-digit tackles if all goes right. However, the Wyoming alum’s floor is lower against the Bills than it usually is.
Buffalo’s offense is middle of the pack regarding rush attempts, but many of those attempts are scrambles that Josh Allen takes against the edge. Lead LBs are averaging 6.1 solo tackles per game against Buffalo, but 58% of those came in games where Buffalo played with a significant lead and could afford to run the ball. Their matchup with Cincinnati doesn't project as a blowout.
Logan Wilson scrapes over the top and stones Christian McCaffrey in the hole pic.twitter.com/zvvGRAxV1s
— Kendell Hollowell (@KHollowell_) November 1, 2023
Fade: Sam Hubbard, DL, Cincinnati Bengals
Another Bengal makes our fade list. Frequent readers of my columns will know I've never been a big fan of Hubbard in fantasy. Regarding fantasy defensive linemen, I gravitate toward sack artists rather than volume tacklers. Even tackle-premium scoring systems will usually reward three or four times the points for a sack over a tackle, dropping the value on guys like Hubbard and elevating elite edge rushers.
Now, Hubbard has been more productive than usual as a pass rusher… and he still ranks as the 19th-best DL in our standard scoring. While he has four sacks this year, his metrics suggest he’s outproducing his skillset in that area. Hubbard sits 43rd amongst DLs in pressures and 55th in pressure rate, while PFF grades him as a below-average pass rusher. To make matters worse, Buffalo is allowing the second-fewest sacks per game.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Justin Madubuike, DL, Baltimore Ravens
Madubuike is rostered in just 5% of IDP leagues as of this writing, despite being eligible at DT and tying for eighth in sacks in the NFL. The Raven is eighth in quarterback pressure amongst interior rushers, and he has a higher pass rush win rate than players like Montez Sweat and Kayvon Thibodeaux, too.
Given how difficult it is to find contributing DTs in leagues that require them, Madubuike’s roster rate is surprisingly low. He is currently outperforming Quinnen Williams, Zach Seiler, and Zach Allen in most metrics, but he’s rostered in fewer leagues.
Stream: Jamal Adams, DB, Seattle Seahawks
Adams is the 61st most rostered DB in fantasy, and he’s starting in just 3.5% of leagues as of this writing. He’s a box safety who spends nearly half his time on the defensive front, and most of his other snaps come in the slot. The Ravens’ offense utilizes a lot of quarterback runs and tight end throws that should feed Adams double-digit fantasy opportunities.
I miss Jamal Adams pic.twitter.com/rXWR1kWjfI
— Blake (@blakenyjets) October 27, 2023
Fade: All Atlanta Falcons Pass Rushers
The Vikings grade as the NFL's third-best pass-blocking offense this year, with their current starting line surrendering just 53 pressures this season. Minnesota should lean more on the run and short passing game with Kirk Cousins out, too. So, the potential for big plays is there against Jaren Hall, but the volume should be down as well.
Of additional concern is the injury to Grady Jarrett. The presence of Jarrett made life easier for all of Atlanta's defensive linemen. His loss will give more snaps to some, but their effectiveness should decrease. There are very few problems that need double teams on this line with Jarrett out.
Fade: Asante Samuel Jr. and Michael Davis, Los Angeles Chargers
The Jets’ offense has the third-lowest passing volume and the seventh-lowest volume offense overall. Shockingly, Zach Wilson has thrown just the 15th most interceptions this season, too. While Garrett Wilson has become a volume monster lately, he moves all over the formation. There's no true shadow corner to follow Wilson in this matchup, meaning Charger's DBs should struggle for volume.
Defenders Worth Adding
Leo Chanal, LB, Kansas City Chiefs
Chanal was a fine tackler coming out of Wisconsin, but his playing time depends on the health of the Chiefs' other starting LBs. With Nick Bolton on IR, Chanal is a fine deep-league streaming option.
In deep dynasty leagues, Chanal can be stashed if you believe the Chiefs will let Willie Gay Jr. walk in time. Chanal can perform like an LB3 if given an opportunity in Kansas City or elsewhere.
Benjamin St. Juste, CB, Washington Commanders
St. Juste is sixth amongst fantasy cornerbacks in standard IDP scoring this season, yet he's rostered in just 3.4% of IDP leagues. His matchup this week against New England is concerning, but the Minnesota alum is worth stashing in leagues that require you start CBs.
Sydney Brown, S, Philadelphia Eagles
Brown was my favorite safety in this year’s NFL Draft, and he landed on a defense that could put him in elite fantasy situations in the future. Brown’s usage in 2023 won’t be ideal, given Kevin Byard and Reed Blankenship are earning 100% of the safety snaps. However, Brown collected seven solo stops on just 56% of the Eagles’ snaps last week, which is consistent with his strong tackling at Illinois.
Kevin Byard has one more non-voidable year on his contract with the Eagles, and Blankenship's contract ends in 2024 as well. Byard could be aged out of Philly, and Brown has the talent to outperform Blankenship in time. Consider Brown an elite stash in dynasty leagues and an upside DB4 option today.
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