RADIO
As we enter Week 7 of the NFL season, we are nearing the mid-point of the fantasy sleight. Thus, now is a good time to take stock of the IDP waiver landscape. Specifically, what players are woefully under-rostered in IDP leagues. To do this, we will remember that some teams have already had bye weeks, which impacts overall scoring. Therefore, we will use the per-game averages of my Standard IDP scoring for our analysis.
Diving into roster rates, the first thing to jump out is how under-rostered our top LBs are. Quincy Williams (44.7% rostered) is first in my standard scoring and Terrel Bernard (75%) sits third, while Jordan Hicks (37%) and Quay Walker (41%) also rank in our top ten. Worse, only three of our top-scoring DLs are rostered in over 50% of IDP leagues. The availability of those players is stunning, even if some lame ducks are scattered into the scoring mix.
The roster rates for our top-scoring DBs are even worse. In fact, only one DB in all of fantasy (Derwin James) is rostered in over 50% of leagues, and he sits 58th in scoring. Those numbers look worse than they really are, though. Plenty of underperforming DBs, like James and Jalen Pitre, have dealt with injuries so far. Plus, early scoring for DBs is often thrown off by one or two big plays. Thus, the underutilized DBs on this list make more sense than the LBs or DLs.
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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Byron Young, DL, Los Angeles Rams
Young has risen through our ranks very quickly. He started as a stash, then became a deep league streamer. A devastating bye week puts the speedy rookie in the DL3 conversation now.
The Steelers' blockers have allowed 76 quarterback pressures this year despite already sitting out their bye. Their per-game pressure rate is fourth worst in the NFL, though it could go down with Diontae Johnson available for short bailouts. Even if Pittsburgh improves its protection, Young's 4.3 speed should stress the Steelers at both ends and give their tackles issues.
Byron Young captures defensive rookie of the week honors for this past Sundays efforts against ARZ.
Young has really expedited his talents! His measuables certainly stand out with his speed and acceleration but I also see him as a HIGH MOTOR guy with an underrated Bull Rush! pic.twitter.com/A5tOg1AWRF
— RAMS ON FILM (@RamsOnFilm) October 19, 2023
Stream: Alex Anzalone, LB, Detroit Lions
I’m typically lower on Anzalone than most. He’s a tackle-dependent asset who isn’t particularly great at tackling. He’s topped 100 tackles once in his career and has never come close to leading his position in that crucial category. Anzalone also adds little in terms of big plays, logging just three forced turnovers and 3.5 sacks over the past two and a half seasons.
Alex Anzalone: 239 coverage snaps without allowing a TD this season
1st among linebackers 😤 pic.twitter.com/qnONBcBPno
— PFF DET Lions (@PFF_Lions) October 18, 2023
Considering that Anzalone doesn’t get you big plays, and he's historically not been a high-volume tackler, he’s not considered a dependable fantasy starter. However, the Lions continue to feed Anzalone snaps despite having capable depth behind him. That fact, and a very good matchup against a Ravens team that can’t run the ball but tries, elevates Anzalone this week… since six teams are on bye.
Fade: Talanoa Hufanga, DB, San Francisco 49ers
We faded Harold Landry III last week, and then he had the first useful fantasy performance of the season. Perhaps we can inspire a similar breakout from Hufanga?
The Troy Polamalu clone was one of my favorite DBs coming into the season, and I’ve practiced patience with him so far. I believed in his ability to make big plays and deliver big hits in the box. I thought that potential meant he would eventually return value if I kept steady on my top-five rank for him. So far, that hasn't happened.
Because the Vikings are a decent matchup for Hufanga, I'm not dropping him completely out of the DB1 conversation. However, he isn't delivering enough tackles to keep him ahead of Camryn Bynum or Kamren Curl. He also isn't delivering enough big plays to put him ahead of Minkah Fitzpatrick or Kyle Hamilton. Hufanga is simply a high-end DB2 until he starts to produce more regularly.
Fade: Bradley Chubb, DL/LB, Miami Dolphins
Chubb is the 18th most rostered DL in fantasy, and the 14th most started. He has a tough matchup this week against the Eagles, though. That, and his inconsistent production since joining Miami, means he’s being over-started this week.
Per PFF, the Eagles pass blockers rank fourth in the NFL. As a team, they are allowing just 11.3 pressures per game. Only 24 of those pressures are coming off the edge, and only one sack has come from the bookends. That spells trouble for a guy who takes 91% of his snaps on the periphery.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Tuli Tuipulotu, DL, Los Angeles Chargers
Tuipulotu is a rookie playing 85% of the defensive snaps for a Chargers team that should always be competitive in games. Because Los Angeles' offense is good enough to score points, opponents should rarely run the clock out. That goes for the defending Super Bowl champs, too.
Continue to be astounded by how quickly Tuli Tuipulotu's strength has translated to this level. The guy turned 21 a month ago. pic.twitter.com/yvEHJqltle
— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) October 19, 2023
Kansas City is 13th in the NFL in pass attempts per game, which isn’t great but is solid. They have a history of getting into shootouts with Justin Herbert, too. While KC’s defense is better than it’s been in years, I project Patrick Mahomes to throw the ball over 60% of the time this week. That should open up opportunities for Tuipulotu, who can attack a Chiefs edge that has surrendered 48 pressures on the season.
Tuipulotu is a deep league flyer and should not be playing in standard or shallow leagues. However, he has upside as a streamer in a week littered with byes.
Stream: Alontae Taylor, CB, New Orleans Saints
High-volume wide receiver targets are earned and a sign of talent. Sometimes, defensive targets are earned as well… but the presence of talent isn't always the reason.
Taylor leads the NFL in DB targets by six, due partly to his mediocre coverage skills. He has turned those targets into seven PDs and 27 tackles. Now he gets a Jaguars offense with a gimpy quarterback. While Jacksonville will likely run the ball a lot in this one, Taylor should see several opportunities for deflections and a turnover. He’s a boom-or-bust streaming option this week.
Fade: Brandon Stephens CB, Baltimore Ravens
Stephens has started the season on a tear, logging multiple double-digit tackle games. He currently ranks 10th in standard points amongst DBs, too. However, this could be a bad week for him.
Amon-Ra St. Brown takes over half his snaps in the slot. Stephens hasn't followed in the slot this season, taking just 12 snaps there all year. Worse, Marlon Humphrey is now healthy and has more experience shadowing in the slot. With Detroit throwing at the fourth-lowest rate in the league and half those targets going to interior weapons Sam LaPorta and St. Brown, Stephens could be in for a low-volume day.
Fade: Michael Hoecht, DL/LB, Los Angeles Rams
How often do I have to list this guy in this spot before people start getting it? I have to keep repeating this name, hoping I will wish his roster drop into existence.
Hoecht is the 19th most-started DL in fantasy. While the Steelers are a fine matchup, Hoecht hasn't shown he can take advantage of good matchups. He has exactly 0.5 sacks on the season, zero turnovers, and just one PD. He's totaled six solo tackles in his past three games and averages two per game. He ranks 42nd amongst all fantasy edges in standard scoring, and there’s zero signs of improvement.
Defenders Worth Adding
Rashan Gary, DL/LB, Green Bay Packers
Gary is rostered in just 2.2% of IDP leagues and is started in 0.8%. However, he is PFF’s 16th highest-graded pass rusher this season. His pass rush win rate is also fourth amongst defensive linemen and edge rushers. While Gary's snaps were initially limited as he returned from injury, the metrics are strong, and his playing time should continue increasing.
Top-10 EDGE in pass rush win % via PFF
1️⃣ Myles Garrett: 32.6%
2️⃣ Rashan Gary: 28.9%
2️⃣ Nick Bosa: 28.9%
4️⃣ DeMarcus Lawrence: 26.4%
5️⃣ Micah Parsons: 23.7%
6️⃣ Trey Henrickson: 22.9%
7️⃣ Chase Young: 22.8%
8️⃣ Za’Darius Smith: 22.2%
9️⃣ Aidan Hutchinson: 21.5%
🔟 Maxx Crosby: 20.0%— Hogg (@HoggNFL) October 11, 2023
There's one additional benefit of adding Gary to your fantasy team. He's already had his bye. Therefore, he can remain in your DL2 slot for the rest of the season as long as he's healthy.
Jadeveon Clowney, DL/LB, Baltimore Ravens
Clowney is a risky play this week, given the Lions are one of the best pass-blocking units in the NFL. However, the former first-overall pick is rostered in just 1.5% of IDP leagues and was started in 0.9% last week. He ranks 25th in the pass rush win rate this year, seventh in quarterback pressures, and has four sacks on the season. He’s a fine deep league stash for future positive matchups.
Cam Taylor-Britt, CB, Cincinnati Bengals
Taylor-Britt is currently the third highest-scoring CB in fantasy. Coming out of the bye, he has three straight shadow opportunities against the 49ers, Buffalo Bills, and Houston Texans. While none of those teams have been high-volume passing offenses, they each have wideouts who have commanded high volume this season.
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