Week 6 Busts - Overvalued Players to Avoid In Fantasy Football

October 13, 2018

Top 10 potential lineup busts to avoid starting in fantasy football. Justin Carter lists NFL players to consider sitting or benching as Week 6 lineup disappointments.

It's Week 6 in the NFL and the Cleveland Browns have now won two games! Everything we once knew has been radically changed...except that the Browns won partially because Joe Flacco couldn't beat them, and Joe Flacco failing to beat a team isn't a new development. The more things change, the more nothing changes!

Anyway, the NFL continues to suffer from one never-ending problem -- tight end play is inconsistent and troubling for fantasy owners. I've never been a believer in the "draft a top tight end early" strategy, but...maybe I should try it more often? This whole column could just be "tight ends who I don't want to start this week," honestly.

Below are 10 lineup busts and avoids for Week 6 of NFL action.

Top 10 Busts - NFL Week 6

Dak Prescott (QB, Dallas Cowboys)

This might be the easiest sit of the season at the quarterback position. Prescott hasn't had a great start to the season and among quarterbacks, he currently ranks 23rd in air yards, 31st in adjusted yards per attempt, 30th in true completion percentage, and 29th in production premium. By all kinds of metrics, we can conclude that this isn't the year for Prescott. Now, we can lay some of that blame on the sub-par receiving unit in Dallas, but it's hard to ignore that Prescott hasn't been willing to throw the ball deep -- you can't complete big plays if you don't attempt them, and right now his average pass is traveling just 8.2 yards.

Oh, one other complication: Dallas plays the Jaguars, who allow the fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position.

Derek Carr (QB, Oakland Raiders)

The Seahawks defense has allowed just a single passing touchdown each week over the past three games. While two of those games were against Dallas and Arizona, I'm impressed by their play against the Rams last week, holding Goff to just one score.

This week, Seattle plays the Raiders. Derek Carr has been fairly accurate this year, but aside from a four-touchdown game against the Browns, that accuracy hasn't translated into production, and Carr has already thrown eight interceptions, so the moments where he misses on a throw haven't been great. No one has thrown more interceptable passes this year. Some of Carr's metrics suggest he should trend upwards at some point, but I don't feel comfortable predicting it to be this week.

Kenyan Drake (RB, Miami Dolphins)

I'm not going to read too much into Drake receiving 11 targets in Week 5. It was his second double-digit target game in his career, and he followed up last year's 11 target game with a pair of three target games to end the year.

What I am going to read a little more into is how Drake has fallen off in carries. Frank Gore had 12 carries to Drake's six against the Bengals this past weekend. This week, the Dolphins take on a Bears team that hasn't allowed a running back to find the end zone on the ground yet.

Corey Clement (RB, Philadelphia Eagles)

The loss of Jay Ajayi to an ACL tear opens up possibilities in the Eagles backfield, but even if the team doesn't turn to the trade market to fill their current hole, I like Wendell Smallwood more than Clement at this point. A short week against the Giants, a lingering quad injury, and a New York defense that has already allowed four receiving touchdowns to running backs, which plays into Smallwood's hands based on recent usage. Clement has a chance to be the main back, but I don't see that chance being worth the risk on Thursday.

Alex Collins (RB, Baltimore Ravens)

The Titans haven't allowed a touchdown to a running back yet. Alex Collins saw his snap share fall to just 31 percent in Week 5. While his touches didn't really change despite the drop in playing time, that's not an encouraging sign at this stage in the season, especially with Javorius Allen out-snapping him despite it being a close game. The narrative that Allen is the receiving back seems to be dissipating, which is bad news for Collins owners.

Alshon Jeffery (WR, Philadelphia Eagles)

The targets were there for Jeffery last week, but he only managed to bring in two catches for 39 yards and this week finds himself up against a Giants defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. I'm finding it difficult to play him this week.

Michael Crabtree (WR, Baltimore Ravens)

It's not that Crabtree isn't getting targets, but he's already seen around 400 fewer air yards than teammate John Brown and he's struggled to get yards after the catch, leaving him as a fine play in PPR but harder to justify playing in standard leagues. This week's matchup against the Titans isn't terrible, but Crabtree's drops and John Brown's ascending role in this offense aren't great signs.

Keelan Cole (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars)

Donte Moncrief has seen his target share surge lately, while Cole is starting to be left behind in the Jaguars offense. With running back T.J. Yeldon factoring heavily into the passing game as well plus a difficult meeting with the Cowboys and their strong-ish secondary, Cole barely rates as a flex option in deep leagues for me.

Greg Olsen (TE, Carolina Panthers)

This is the player I'm the most torn on this week, because the tight end position has been so bad this year that I've already committed to starting Olsen in multiple places where he was available on waivers. But Olsen returns from a broken foot and we saw in 2017 what Olsen returning from a foot injury could look like -- one catch for 10 yards against the Jets last November.

David Njoku (TE, Cleveland Browns)

The Chargers have held tight ends under 10 PPR points in four of the five weeks this season. Njoku has seen an uptick in targets with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, but there are better options this week. (Maybe? Look, tight end has been rough this year, so even Njoku in a bad matchup is better than a lot of other guys.)

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