RADIO
My IDP rankings came out just yesterday, and we already have a growing list of teams announcing they will rest players before the playoffs. The 49ers, Ravens, and Browns are all resting their quarterbacks and other key offensive stars, as we expected. However, the Rams and Chiefs have joined the fray by announcing their passers will rest. To date, Los Angeles is the only team to announce that a key defender will rest for the tournament, though.
While Aaron Donald is the only stud defender who has officially been dubbed a healthy inactive, more will surely follow. This will impact my rankings, which didn’t factor in the Rams or Chiefs fully resting in this fashion. Players like Ernest Jones, Nick Bolton, Chris Jones, and L’Jarius Sneed are all too high in my current rankings and will be adjusted to reflect they could play enough to impact fantasy, but not enough to be trustworthy studs.
With the Rams and Chiefs’ announcements, you must remember the phrase “active rosters” in Week 18 is a misnomer. These teams will play a handful of starters, either out of necessity or want. That doesn’t mean Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett will get real snaps, though. When teams rest their starting quarterback, it's only a matter of time before all of their stars take a knee. Would you rather have 12 snaps from a stud or 50 from a secondary asset?
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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Blake Cashman, LB, Houston Texans
There is some risk associated with Cashman. He played just half his team’s snaps last week, and that’s troubling if you need a consistent starter in shallow leagues. However, there is good reason to believe that was a purposeful move to ease Cashman back into the rotation. The hope is his usage will increase in a must-win game this week.
On the season, Cashman has been Houston's most effective linebacker. He has traditionally played most of the Texans' defensive snaps, helping him rank as LB25 in standard fantasy PPG this season. With the playoffs on the line, we expect his snaps should come closer to his season average against a Colts team that wants to run the ball. If that usage does rise, it makes him a solid LB2 in a week with many players sitting out.
Stream: Quay Walker, LB, Green Bay Packers
Walker was a strong LB1 option to start the year, but he’s faded recently. Since his injury in Week 8, the Georgia product has just one game with double-digit tackles and is averaging 5.5 fantasy points per game. That’s poor production from a top-tier talent, especially at a deep position like LB.
That said, Walker's usage gives him a boost in a thinning linebacker pool. He regularly sees 100% of Green Bay's snaps, barring injury. He plays a Bears offense that is third in the NFL in rushing percentage this year, which plays into his skill set. Finally, Green Bay has something to play for. In a division game against a team playing for a coach on the hot seat, the Packers need a win. Walker should play a lot.
Fade: T.J. Edwards, LB, Chicago Bears
The easy answer here would be Roquan Smith, given that the Ravens are unlikely to play him much. I have hammered that drum enough, though. So, I will go with someone likely to play a normal number of snaps, yet he still falls down my ranks this week.
T.J. Edwards has been a favorite of mine all season, and he rewarded that faith early. In fact, through Week 10, Edwards was the LB4 in my standard scoring system. Unfortunately, Edwards has disappointed since then, averaging a paltry 5.5 tackles per game. His fantasy numbers haven't suffered much in that span thanks to three interceptions in his past five games, but those three picks are more than his career total entering this year.
Traditionally, you rely on Edwards to get you double-digit tackles. He isn't historically a reliable source of big plays. Unfortunately, he hasn't cracked double-digits in six games. While he did accomplish that task the last time he played Green Bay, he has done disappointingly little against top-10 fantasy matchups in four of his past six contests. The Wisconsin alum remains a high-end LB2 for me, but isn't a safe LB1 right now.
Fade: Devon Witherspoon, DB, Seattle Seahawks
Witherspoon has been an elite ballhawk during his rookie season. His fantasy production has relied heavily on his opponent's passing volume, though. Most of Witherspoon's fantasy points (66%) have come in just five games. Of those five games, four were against offenses that had a true #1 receiver and were one of the 12 most pass-oriented offenses in the NFL.
The Cardinals are the 19th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL. Worse, the loss of Marquise Brown has left them barren at the wide receiver position. In fact, since losing Brown early against San Francisco three weeks ago, Arizona has thrown a total of 30 passes to wide receivers. That’s an average of 10 targets per game to wideouts, which is horrible volume for a fantasy corner like Witherspoon.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Oren Burks, LB, San Francisco 49ers
If you’re projecting San Francisco to sit most of their stars, then someone must play. With Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw unlikely to see a full quarter of football, I expect Burks will get a lot of their snaps. Those snaps should come against a Rams team looking to run the ball with backup linemen, a backup quarterback, and a backup running back.
Burks is a deep sleeper, but do not be surprised if he logs double-digit tackles in spot duty. San Francisco and Los Angeles seem to be mailing this one in and resting for the playoffs, which could lead to good volume and opportunity for a linebacker playing in a favorable scheme and behind a deep defensive line. Burks should be doing just that.
Stream: Zyon McCollum, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I recommended you stash McCollum at the midseason point, and he's delivered recently. While Carolina isn't as pass-heavy as they were earlier in the season, their passing volume is still in the top half of the league over the past three weeks.
McCollum should have several chances at a pass deflection this week, and we project five tackles from his shallow fantasy CB spot. Deep leagues playing this week could do worse when looking for a sleeper DB2.
Fade: Shaquil Barrett, DL/LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let me preface by saying that it is a tough week to fade any starters who will likely see significant snaps. That is especially true in deep leagues. Plus, the Buccaneers have a playoff spot on the line and Barrett was a full practice participant on Wednesday, so he is likely to play as much as they need him.
There are a couple of reasons to fade Barrett despite his workload, though. First on that list is the possibility that Tampa gets out to a large lead and rests players. Given Barrett missed last week with an injury, he's one of the first who might get a break. The second is his production. He has two games with six or more tackles and just 4.5 sacks all year. Worse, he produced only one fantasy point against Carolina four weeks ago.
Fade: Paulson Adebo, DB, New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are the fourth-most run-heavy offense in the NFL. Their top wideout has just 99 targets on the season and they’ve attempted a mere 189 attempts to wideouts all year. On average, that translates to just 11.1 targets per game to wide receivers. This rate is abysmal. It’s almost as bad as what Arizona has been doing without their top wideout.
Admittedly, the Falcons vs. Saints matchup is one to target this week. Both teams have a lot on the line, and neither scores enough points to turn this into a blowout, so it should remain competitive all game. With that in mind, the passing volume should be low enough to fade Adebo despite a healthy snap rate and a dearth of options at DB.
Defenders Worth Adding
Christian Barmore, DL, New England Patriots
My DL Riser of the Week is available in 97.3% of IDP leagues. You can read my rankings article for a deeper analysis of why he's worth streaming this week, but his matchup is good enough to add him as a DL2 option in a frustrating week. The Alabama product has more upside than many superstars whose volume or matchup offer serious concerns.
Trenton Simpson, LB, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are another team who are primed to rest starters this week. There is no better time than this to let a talented but raw rookie get snaps. Simpson was a fine athlete at Clemson and could produce solid production against a Steelers team that loves to run it up the middle with Najee Harris.
Simpson joins Burks as deep league streamers, but they both have big upside if the guys ahead of them do sit out. This rookie is available in nearly every IDP league, too.
Cameron Sutton, DB, Detroit Lions
Sutton plays every snap for Detroit and spends almost all his time on the left side. He should face Justin Jefferson approximately 66% of the time, if both their usage plays out as usual. In a week with plenty of IDP stars resting, Sutton is an interesting DB3 streamer available in 99.4% of IDP leagues.
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