RADIO
The top asset any sports analyst can have is patience. You’re paid for thorough analysis, so don’t overreact to one good or bad game. You must be cold, calculated, and remind people that even Barry Sanders had off days. Every week, I get dozens of questions, texts, and DMs about the latest breakout player or a disappointing star. Every week, I must remind people that this is a season-long game. Stars can be born and die, and sometimes backups just get lucky.
This isn’t to say that a no-name defender who racks up 15 tackles isn’t worth talking about. After all, IDP pools are fluid, and the defensive side of the ball never gets the attention that the offense does. So, fantasy-relevant defenders and breakouts slip by unnoticed more than you’d think. However, fans and talking heads must also remember that one week does not make a superstar, especially on defense. Defensive stats are fickle, especially for unknown backups.
This topic of overreaction seems particularly relevant after the Ravens throttled the 49ers. The public’s knee-jerk reaction to that drubbing is to say the Ravens are elite (which they are), and the 49ers are overrated (which they may be). But that knee-jerk reaction is based on one game. Three days ago, San Francisco was crowned the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Now, after one bad game from Brock Purdy, that’s all changed? Maybe it has… but maybe it hasn’t.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Shaquille Leonard, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
We have roasted Leonard in this space pretty frequently this season, and for good reason. To put it bluntly, fantasy managers have routinely ignored Leonard’s off-field red flags in Indy, his slower film, and his disappointing metrics. His old team wasn't excited about him because he no longer showed the elite tools that helped him dominate fantasy for years. He was also unhappy, leading to an impasse.
While Leonard still isn't who he once was, a fantasy opportunity is knocking for him in Philly. With Zach Cunningham and Nicholas Morrow out in Week 16, the former Colt saw 86% of the defensive snaps while producing seven tackles and a sack. If he gets enough playing time, he can still produce LB2-tier stats. That playing time is possible this week. Leonard is a mid-tier LB2 against Arizona if Morrow and Cunningham are out.
Stream: Chase Young, DL, San Francisco 49ers
Young is the 51st most-started DL in fantasy as of this writing. It's hard to blame anyone for that, given he's played just half of the defensive snaps since joining San Francisco. However, Young's Pass Rush Win Rate is still a respectable 15.7%, and he's tied for 16th in quarterback pressures amongst all defensive linemen.
So, why should you start Young this week when he's been good but inconsistent? Admittedly, some of this has to do with the revenge narrative. No metrics strongly suggest a revenge game boosts player production, but multiple NFL players have stated that they feel extra motivation when playing against a team that discarded them.
It also helps that the Commanders allow the third-most quarterback sacks this season and allow pressure off the edge on 12.8% of their passing plays. While some of that is due to Sam Howell’s tendencies, Jacoby Brissett’s career sack rate as a starter would place him ninth-worst amongst NFL teams this season. Washington is a good pass-rush matchup, regardless of their quarterback.
Defense scores first! 🙏#ProBowlVote Chase Young#BALvsSF on ESPN pic.twitter.com/NkS3a2UR5a
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 26, 2023
Fade: DaRon Bland, DB, Dallas Cowboys
Jared Goff has the fifth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate amongst quarterbacks with 300 or more pass attempts. Per PFF, he throws an interceptable ball less than once a game (0.75 per game, to be exact). Better yet, Goff’s Bad Throw rate is the 11th-best in the NFL and his On-Target rate is the 12th-best, per Pro Football Reference. He also gets rid of the ball at the fifth-fastest clip.
While you can't fade DaRon Bland in deep leagues or big play premium scoring, you can discount him in common leagues with standard scoring. This is your fantasy championship, and 64.7% of his fantasy production comes from interceptions. Worse, he has seven contests with four or fewer tackles. Thus, the risk of Bland never intercepting Goff is too high to rank him as a DB1 or a high-end DB2 unless you’re desperate.
Fade: Leonard Floyd, Buffalo Bills
With Bailey Zappe as their starter, the Patriots are averaging the fewest offensive plays and the second-fewest pass attempts in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, it is a conservative offense run by a staff that calls plays like they’re waiting for the season to end.
Buffalo has some viable pass rushers, and any one of them could have a big game this week. The Patriots are PFF's fourth-worst pass-blocking offense, after all. However, New England's low volume allows them to rank just 17th in quarterback sacks per game. Their starting tackles are also serviceable this year, allowing just 3.7 pressures per game. Thus, Floyd should see low volume against steady tackles.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Taylor Rapp, DB, Buffalo Bills
Rapp is available in 99.7% of IDP leagues as of this writing. However, he has been a steady DB3 when starting for Buffalo. He has subbed in for Micah Hyde thrice this year, receiving 100% of the snaps and averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game.
Reports indicate Hyde could miss another game this week, meaning Rapp would be on tap to start against the Patriots. He should be a viable deep-league streamer if that is the case.
Terrel Bernard being a top tier air traffic controller
Also, a well timed blitz from Taylor Rapp for the TFL + a quick win inside from Ed Oliver with a sudden swim move as the #Bills slant the front#BillsMafia #GoBills
— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) December 18, 2023
Stream: Jaycee Horn, DB, Carolina Panthers
If you’re looking for a reliable floor, Horn isn’t your play. That’s in both deep and shallow formats. However, he is an interesting gamble if you’re looking for a CB3 with the upside to swing a championship you’re favored to lose.
If I told you Travis Etienne was fifth in the NFL in Yards After Contact and first in Missed Tackles Forced, you’d assume that’s a good thing. Right? And if I told you Trevor Lawrence was repeatedly banged up and questionable heading into the past four weeks, you’d assume that would lead to Jacksonville leaning on Etienne. Yes?
Over the past three weeks, no team has thrown the ball more than the Jaguars. During that span, Lawrence has 12 turnover-worthy plays, more than double his season rate. C.J. Beathard isn't any more conservative with the ball either, meaning whoever starts for the Jaguars should give Horn and his teammates several turnover opportunities.
Fade: Rashan Gary, DL/LB, Green Bay Packers
You may be forced into starting Gary if your league uses three or more DLs, but his matchup and current production are not encouraging.
Gary has 11 games with fewer than four standard fantasy points this season. In fact, 31.1% of his fantasy points came in just one game. Granted, that matchup was against a very good Lions' pass-blocking unit, but his fantasy output in nearly every other game has been below average.
To make matters worse, the Vikings are PFF's top pass-blocking offense this season. Their starting offensive tackles have combined to allow just 11 sacks all season. The upside is that Gary spends most of his time over the right edge of his opponent, meaning he avoids Christian Darrisaw on 75% of his snaps. The downside is that Brian O'Neill has been nearly as good and allows fewer quarterback hits.
Fade: Jamal Adams & Tariq Woolen, Seattle Seahawks
The Steelers are the NFL’s third-lowest volume passing offense since they fired Matt Canada. That trend continued with Mason Rudolph under center last weekend. It doesn't help that Adams regularly misses time with injury this season, while Woolen has only produced in high-volume contests this season.
Defenders Worth Adding
Khaleke Hudson, LB, Washington Commanders
Hudson was my LB Riser last week, and I told you to add him. Most of you didn't, as he's available in 98.7% of IDP leagues. He's had two straight weeks with double-digit tackle production, and he faces a 49ers offense that operates through the running back. Hudson could be a championship winner in many leagues and he’s readily available.
Travon Walker, DL, Jacksonville Jaguars
The former first-overall pick has been picking up steam, averaging a steady 4.9 fantasy points per game over his past six contests. Now he gets Carolina, an offense allowing the fourth-most sacks per game.
While Walker is far from a safe or guaranteed play in your championship, he’s available in 97% of IDP leagues and projects well this week. He’s a worthwhile add in deeper leagues.
Eric Rowe, DB, Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s incredibly tough to trust a journeyman defensive back whose first snaps came in Week 16, especially when your fantasy championship is on the line. That said, Pittsburgh’s coaching staff is effusive about Rowe’s ability to step into their vast void at safety.
If Minkah Fitzpatrick remains out, Rowe could see a second consecutive week with 90% of the defensive snaps. That's valuable time in Pittsburgh's fantasy-friendly system, especially if you play in a very deep IDP league and are desperate for a fourth or fifth DB. He is available in 100% of leagues.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
