What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part one of our Week 16 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the first half of the Week 16 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

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Week 15 Matchup Analysis Recap

Greatest Hits: Terrelle Pryor (WR, CLE), Doug Martin (RB, TB), Cameron Brate (TE, TB)

Pryor had another disappointing week with RGIII as the starting QB, held to only four catches for 19 yards. He has 22 total yards over the past two weeks, and has been visibly upset on the field with the play of his QB. Pryor is a player to bench the remainder of the season until those two find some chemistry. Martin was held in check by the Cowboys, gaining only 42 yards on 16 carries. He was not involved in the passing game; Charles Sims took over that work. Martin has now been held under 3.0 YPC in all but one game since his return, and will be volume dependent the rest of the way. Brate chipped in with a TD on Sunday, finishing the day with give receptions for 73 yards. He has become the go-to option behind Mike Evans, and should be a solid TE play over the final two weeks.

Greatest Misses: Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE), Amari Cooper (WR, OAK), Brandin Cooks (WR, NO)

Crowell was completely bottled up by the Bills defense, gaining only 28 yards on eight carries on a snow covered field. His lack of involvement in the passing game keeps his ceiling low, with Duke Johnson taking all of that work. In another tough matchup this week, Crowell is a RB3 at best. Cooper was a huge flop last week against San Diego, catching only one pass for 28 yards. The Chargers clearly weren't going to let him beat them the same way he did last time, meaning Crabtree led the team in receiving (six receptions, 60 yards and a TD) in a low scoring game. Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals secondary could not keep Brandin Cooks under wraps, as he exploded on Sunday for 186 yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions. Cooks is a big boom or bust player, who will have a good shot at a boom game again this week at home.

 

Dolphins @ Bills - Saturday 12/24 @ 1:00 PM ET

Matchups We Love

LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)

Shady is coming off one of his most dominant games of the season against the Browns, when he ran for 153 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries (8.1 YPC). He has rushed for over 100 yards in three of the past four weeks, and the one week he didn’t he still gained 100 total yards thanks to his 81 receiving yards. Miami has allowed the third highest rushing YPG in the league at 132.5, and has given up the second most runs of 20 or more yards in the league (15). McCoy has ripped off runs of 24, 54, and 75 over the past four weeks. When these teams met earlier in the season he was nursing a hamstring injury and was pulled in the second half. Now he is fully healthy and running well. This is a great matchup for one of the league’s best running backs.

Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA)

The Dolphins got two offensive lineman back last week, but lost Mike Pouncey for the remainder of the season. The loss hurt Ajayi last week, who was held under 2.8 YPC for the second week in a row and the third time in the past four games. He gets an easier matchup this week against Buffalo, whom he tore up for 214 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries back in Week 7. The Bills have allowed big games to Le’Veon Bell, Latavius Murray, and even Chris Ivory was on his way to a big day before a hamstring injury took him out of the game. You can bet Rex Ryan will be throwing the kitchen sink at Ajayi to prevent another 200-yad game, but with the volume of carries he receives he should still have a high floor. He is an RB2 with RB1 upside this week.

Matchups We Hate

Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA)

Matt Moore only needed to attempt 18 passes against the Jets last week to get the win, mainly due to his team getting up early thanks to some long touchdowns. Moore spread the ball around with those targets almost too well; of the five players who received looks no one got more than four or less than three. Landry made the most of his four targets, catching three of them for 108 yards, including a 66-yard catch and run in the third quarter. The Bills secondary has improved of late, mainly the play of their cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby. One of these two will be on Landry all game, no matter where he lines up. Buffalo limited Terrelle Pryor to nothing last week, and kept Antonio Brown and Amari Cooper in check in Weeks 13 and 14. Landry did well last time out against the Bills, but with Moore now at QB it is tough to feel good about starting Landry, especially when he only received four targets last week.

Notable Players

Sammy Watkins (WR, BUF)

Watkins didn’t have a big game against the Browns like many had hoped, but that was mainly due to McCoy dominating the game from start to finish. Charles Clay also decided to come out of the woodwork, but I would expect him to fall back into the abyss this week. Watkins is far and away the most talented receiver on this roster, and has looked healthy since his return from a foot injury. He is still a big risk to start, but outside of McCoy, Watkins is the next best player to start in this offense. Miami has given up the ninth most fantasy points to the WR position this season. He will be a WR3 this week with legitimate WR1 upside.

Mike Gillislee (RB, BUF)

Mike Gillislee has made for a decent deeper league RB2 or flex option over the past several weeks, acting mainly as the goal line vulture to Shady. Over the past nine weeks, Gillislee only has two games without70 rushing yards or a touchdown. The Bills have rushed for the most touchdowns in the league, and seem poised to lead the league in rushing once again this season. Point being, there is plenty of opportunity for Gillislee here even with Shady in the picture. If you’re strapped for an RB2 this week, consider Gillislee if he is not owned by the McCoy owner.

 

Falcons @ Panthers - Saturday 12/24 @ 1:00 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Greg Olsen (TE, CAR)

After a four week stretch where he failed to eclipse 45 receiving yards, Greg Olsen has topped 80 in each of the past two weeks. His 16 targets over the past two weeks lead the team. Olsen’s improved play comes just in time for the best matchup on his schedule; the Falcons. Atlanta has given up the fifth most fantasy points to the TE position, and have allowed eight touchdowns to the position; fourth most in the league. The 49ers tight ends combined to catch five passes for 80 yards and a TD against them last week, and recently Travis Kelce got them for 140 yards on eight receptions. Fire up Olsen as a strong TE1 against this beatable defense.

Julio Jones (WR, ATL)

Jones is set to make his return to the Falcons WR corps after missing the past two games with a toe injury. His return pushes down Mohamed Sanu, and limits Aldrick Robinson and Taylor Gabriel to WR3 duties. Jones will immediately reclaim his WR1 role while dominating the targets. Sanu and Robinson become fringe options at best. Gabriel got a similar number of touches when Jones was in before the injury, so his role may not change much. He could still be used as a desperation WR3. Carolina has given up the sixth most fantasy points to the WR position this season, a big part of which was Jones’ 300-yard game back in Week 4.

Matchups We Hate

Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR)

This matchup may be more difficult than expected for Jonathan Stewart. Stewart has received 49 rushing attempts over the past two weeks against the Redskins and Chargers, two games in which Carolina got up early and stayed ahead. Atlanta has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to the RB position this season, however most of that damage was dealt in an area Stewart doesn’t succeed. The Falcons have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing RB this season, while giving up the seventh fewest rushing yards to the position. This is the case because Atlanta gets up on teams, forcing them to abandon the run in favor of the pass. On the season, Stewart has only six receptions. If Atlanta gets up early, Stewart could be phased out of the game in favor of Fozzy Whittaker or Mike Tolbert.

Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL)

Freeman is coming off his best rushing performance of the season against the 49ers. He ran 20 times for 139 yards with three touchdowns. He now has seven touchdowns over his last four games, with two apiece coming against the Cardinals and Chiefs. This week he gets a tough opponent in the Panthers, who have allowed the third fewest rushing yards in the league this season. Freeman was able to score a TD the last time these two teams met, but only rushed for 57 yards on the day. Tevin Coleman is always a threat to take touches/red zone looks, but Freeman normally gets the volume he needs to be effective. He is an RB2 despite the poor matchup on paper.

Notable Players

Ted Ginn (WR, CAR)

Ted Ginn has supplanted Kelvin Benjamin as the WR1 in this offense, evidenced by his 28 targets over the past four weeks compared to Benjamin’s 23. Ginn has scored a TD in four of his last five games, and will likely be leaned upon this week in what is expected to be a shootout. Ginn didn’t do much of anything last time these two teams met, but then again he didn’t start scoring touchdowns this season until Week 11. He is a boom or bust flex option this week, who has been booming more than busting of late.

 

Jets @ Patriots - Saturday 12/24 @ 1:00 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Julian Edelman (WR, NE)

Since the Patriots Week 9 bye week Edelman has amassed a ridiculous 76 targets, which averaged out to 12.6 targets per game. During that span, he has averaged seven receptions for 85 yards per game. He has far and away been Brady’s favorite go-to target since Rob Gronkowski has been out due to injury. The Jets have allowed receivers to go off on them all season, but more recently Jarvis Landry and T.Y. Hilton both had 100-yard games against this defense. Edelman had eight receptions for 83 yards when these teams met in Week 12, and I would expect nothing less from him this week in Foxborough.

Dion Lewis (RB, NE)

The Patriots leaned more towards Lewis’ and James White’s shiftiness last game over LeGarrette Blount’s raw power, something the Patriots do from time to time. Lewis handled the majority of the rushing attempts last week, signaling the Patriots are no longer worried about his injury. He rushed 18 times for 95 yards, and caught two passes for nine yards. Blount, in comparison, ran 17 times for only 31 yards, but of course scored a short TD to keep his fantasy numbers afloat. This week against the Jets we could see a similar game pattern; the Jets always seem to play New England tough and close. Blount gets his best work in when the Pats are up and working to kill the clock. Any Pats RB could be the star of the week, but with how Lewis looked last week I would want to play him, especially in PPR formats.

Bilal Powell (RB, NYJ)

Lingering ailments have begun to limit Matt Forte’s effectiveness running the ball. Over the past two weeks we’ve seen the Bilal Powell show take off; he has gained a combined 229 yards and two touchdowns on 45 rushes, adding 112 yards on 16 receptions over that span. Even if Forte is active, Powell will handle the larger load once again given how effective he’s been. With this game expected to be a blowout by New England, Powell is in line to see a ton of work in the passing game like he did last week when he caught 11-of-12 passes for 78 yards. In PPR formats Powell has RB1 upside in this matchup.

Matchups We Hate

Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ)

It’s been a long, tough year for Brandon Marshall. Underwhelming QB play and the loss of running mate Eric Decker have hurt his overall numbers, turning him from a fantasy WR1 to an afterthought. Only once in the past six weeks has he topped 46 receiving yards, and he only has one TD over his last nine games played. Last week against Miami he finished with his worst game of the season, a one catch, 16-yard performance. New England and Malcolm Butler have done an excellent job limiting opposing WR this season, which does not bode well for anyone in the Jets offense. Marshall is a low-end WR3 this week.

Notable Players

Martellus Bennett (TE, NE)

The injury to Gronkowski swung the door open for Bennett to find big success in the Patriots offense. Unfortunately, most of the looks have gone to Edelman, leaving Bennett as an inconsistent fantasy TE. For much of the season things have gone one of two ways; he has a two or three catch performance with little yardage, or he catches five or six passes for big yards and a touchdown. Only once over the past five weeks have we seen Bennett boom instead of bust, leaving him as a tough play this week even in a plus matchup. The Jets have allowed big games to Dwayne Allen (three touchdowns) and Dion Sims (two TD) over the past three weeks, and have given up the eighth most fantasy points to the position this season. Bennett is a big dice roll, but one that could pay off if he boom’s this week.

 

Redskins @ Bears - Saturday 12/24 @ 1:00 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Robert Kelley (RB, WAS)

Kelley got stuffed last week against the Panthers, but there were some positives to pull from the results. On the ground Kelley ran only nine times, gaining eight yards with a short touchdown. The TD saved his fantasy day, but the best news came from his increased work in the passing game. Kelley only had six receptions coming into this game, but caught all four of his targets last week for 47 yards. He should have it easier this week against the Bears, who have allowed some solid RB performances over the past few weeks. Ty Montgomery ran all over them last week, and Dwayne Washington and Carlos Hyde in the two weeks prior rushed for a combined 4.3 YPC. Expect a big bounce back game form Fat Rob this week.

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI)

Jordan Howard has had a fantastic season for the Bears so far. Through Week 15 out of all RBs with more than 200 rushing attempts, he has the second highest YPC in football at 5.0, trailing only LeSean McCoy. Last week’s 17 rush, 90-yard and a TD performance put up over 1,000 yards for the season. Over the past seven weeks, he has not rushed for less than 84 yards, and is getting some work in the passing game with 14 receptions over that span. This Redskins defense just allowed Jonathan Stewart to rush for 132 yards against them, and have given up the third most rushing touchdowns this season. Howard is a strong RB1 heading into this week.

Cameron Meredith (WR, CHI)

Working from the slot last week, Meredith posted his first 100-yard game since Week 6. He led the team in targets, catching 9-of-13 passes for 104 yards in the loss. This is now the third straight game he has gone for at least 67 yards, and he seems to have a nice rapport with Matt Barkley on the field. Even with Alshon Jeffery’s return, Meredith was still a big part of the offense. The Redskins have struggled to cover slot men since their bye week; Jordan Matthews, Larry Fitzgerald, and Stefon Diggs all had high reception games, making Meredith a sleeper WR2 in PPR formats heading into championship weekend.

Matchups We Hate

Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS)

This is a week to avoid Crowder if you own him, in favor of either Pierre Garcon or DeSean Jackson. Not only has Crowder seen his targets dip over the past few weeks, this Bears team has done well against slot receivers over the past few weeks. Crowder was fifth on the team in targets with five last game, and since Jackson’s return he is third on the team in targets. The Bears have done well against slot receivers recently, holding Randall Cobb catchless last week and limiting Jeremy Kerley to only one reception in Week 13. Garcon and Jackson make for better starts against this Bears defense, Crowder is a recommended sit.

Notable Players

Alshon Jeffery (WR, CHI)

Jeffery returned from suspension last week against the Packers, and after a slow first half was really able to get things rolling. He ended the game catching 6-of-9 targets for 89 yards and a TD in the loss. It was the second most receptions and the fourth most yards he has had in a game all season long. Jeffery would be a solid play this week, if he were not seeing Josh Norman on a regular basis. Norman will limit Jeffery’s involvement in this game, but with the Bears likely to be behind Barkley will still need to throw a ton. Jeffery needs to put together some good performances for his own sake, given he will be a free agent at the end of the year. He is a solid WR2 this week, but his ceiling is capped with Norman on the other side.

 

Titans @ Jaguars - Saturday 12/24 @ 1:00 PM ET

Matchups We Love

DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN)

Murray has enjoyed a resurgent season with the Titans, currently second in the league in rushing behind only rookie Ezekiel Elliott. Last week against the Chiefs he ran 18 times for 89 yards, while catching five passes for 52 yards in the win. One recurring theme since the bye week is the use of Derrick Henry in the red zone over Murray. Since Week 13, Henry has seven red zone carries to Murray’s three. Last week Henry had five to his zero. This is a run first offense, so even if Murray loses some red zone touches he can still he largely effective (see Shady, Gillislee in Buffalo). The last time the Jags faced a RB of Murray’s ilk it was McCoy back in Week 12, when he ran for over 100 yards with two touchdowns. Murray is an RB1, while Henry makes for a potential flex play this week.

Matchups We Hate

Chris Ivory (RB, JAX)

There isn’t much to write home about with the Jaguars offense this season. One of the most exciting offenses to watch last season has taken a huge step back, thanks mainly to their offensive line and Blake Bortles’ struggles. The Ivory/T.J. Yeldon split hasn’t helped either, with the two backs seeing a nearly 50/50 split in touches. Last week the duo combined to rush 18 times for 72 yards which is nice, but split up between two players with no touchdowns makes either player a poor fantasy option this week. Yeldon gets more work in the passing game, making him the preferred PPR play. However, neither gets enough good work to justify starting this week against a Titans defense allowing the sixth fewest rushing yards this season. The entire Jags offense should be avoided.

Notable Players

Rishard Matthews (WR, TEN)

Matthews is fresh off his second 100-yard game in his past four contests, catching four of his team leading 10 targets for 105 yards in the exciting win over Kansas City. He also fumbled last week near the goal line, which could have given him an even bigger day. Most of this production came against top CB Marcus Peters. Matthews how has 100 yards or a touchdown in six of his last seven games, and now faces a Bears team that Jordy Nelson just got done tearing up. Last time these two teams met Matthews gained 64 yards and a TD on three receptions. He is the best bet for production in the receiving game for Tennessee. He will have another tough matchup with Jalen Ramsey, but he is still a WR2 this week.

Delanie Walker (TE, TEN)

Walker has been among the top fantasy tight ends in the league all season, and has played well in some difficult matchups. Kansas City is one of the better teams against tight ends, and Walker caught six passes for 55 yards. He should have better luck against the Jags this week; last time these two teams met he caught four passes for 75 yards. Ryan Griffin and Kyle Rudolph both have had good games against them over the past two weeks. Walker will be a TE1 in this matchup.

 

Chargers @ Browns - Saturday 12/24 @ 1:00 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Dontrelle Inman (WR, SD)

Inman has been the king of consistency over the past several weeks for San Diego. He has at least five targets in eight straight games, and is averaging about five receptions for 67 yards per game. He was on a three game touchdown streak heading into last week’s game with Oakland, but that streak was broken when he ended the game with five catches for 68 yards. Inman has the highest floor of anyone in the Chargers offense this week, making him a good flex option this week with Tyrell Williams a little banged up. Cleveland has given up the most receiving touchdowns in the league this season, so I would not be surprised if Inman starts a new scoring streak this Saturday.

Antonio Gates (TE, SD)

The Browns have given up the most fantasy points in the league this season to opposing tight ends, including two big games to Tyler Eifert and Charles Clay in their two games since the bye. Gates was disappointing last game with only one reception for 11 yards, but before that had a streak of six straight games with at least four receptions. This is also a good opportunity for Gates make up some ground in the TE TD record books; Gates needs only three scores to top Tony Gonzalez’s all-time record of 111.

Matchups We Hate

Terrelle Pryor (WR, CLE)

Since Robert Griffin III became the starting quarterback for the Browns, Pryor has seen his production fall off a cliff. Pryor caught six passes for 131 yards in Week 12 with Josh McCown starting, but in Week 14 and 15 with RGIII he has a combined five receptions for 22 yards. You should not put your faith in anyone in this offense, given how anemic it has looked over the past two weeks. Not to mention, since the bye San Diego has allowed no receiver to exceed 70 yards receiving and only one player has reached double digit fantasy points since then in standard scoring (Michael Crabtree last week). The Browns offense is a safe pass this week.

Notable Players

Kenneth Farrow (RB, SD)

With Melvin Gordon still not practicing this week, it’s looking like Farrow will get one more crack as the starting RB. Last week against Oakland he disappointed, rushing 15 times for only 39 yards, and catching two passes for 14 yards. He also fumbled the ball twice, losing it once in the process. Ronnie Hillman was much more effective, rushing seven times for 34 yards. It remains to be seen if the split will be more even this week, but either back makes for a risky start even in a plus matchup.

Tyrell Williams (WR, SD)

Coming off an excellent performance last time these two teams met, Williams disappointed against the Raiders the second time around. He finished the day catching 4-of-9 targets for 20 yards in the loss, a far cry from his five-reception 117-yard and a TD game against them earlier in the season. A concussion forced him from action for a few plays, but he was able to return. This matchup with Cleveland is a good one; they have given up the most touchdowns to opposing WR this season. If Williams can bounce back after a tough performance, he has big upside. The only hang up is he has a low floor due to his low catch totals over the past three weeks.

 

Vikings @ Packers - Saturday 12/24 @ 1:00 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Jerick McKinnon (RB, MIN)

McKinnon only gained 12 yards on the ground last week, which was mainly due to game flow and Adrian Peterson’s return. He finally made a big impact in the passing game though, catching all nine of his targets for 59 yards in the loss to Indianapolis. McKinnon is the best back Minnesota has to offer right now, and with Peterson already ruled out for Week 16 McKinnon will receive the majority of the work with Matt Asiata mixing in. If McKinnon can stay anywhere near that involved in the passing game again, he will be an RB2/flex play in PPR formats.

Ty Montgomery (RB/WR, GB)

Last week Montgomery got the usage at RB he should have been receiving all along, carrying the rock 16 times for 162 yards with two touchdowns on the day. He was able to rip off gains of 26, 36, and 61 yards on the day. Even if James Starks returns this week, the Packers would be foolish not to give Montgomery the bulk of the carries once again. His receiving abilities make him a big threat out of the backfield on the ground and through the air. Though he only had once catch last week, he has two games this season with 10 receptions. He is a high-end RB2 in all formats, with RB1 upside in PPR leagues. He can also safely be used as a WR in leagues where he is only eligible at that position.

Matchups We Hate

Jordy Nelson (WR, GB)

If you own Nelson you 100% start him, regardless of the matchup. This just happens to be his most difficult opponent of the season. Minnesota has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to the WR position this season behind only Denver. Last time these two teams met in Week 2, Nelson caught five passes for 73 yards and a TD. He is coming off one of the best games of his season, a seven reception 124-yard performance against Chicago. It was the second time in the past three weeks he went over the century mark. As the Packers rock-solid WR1, Nelson is a strong play this week despite the below-average matchup.

Notable Players

Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN)

Rudolph has been the leader of his receiving corps over the past four weeks, with a team-leading 40 targets over that span. In those games he is averaging nearly seven receptions for 67 yards per game. The only thing he is missing now is the touchdowns; he has only one over that span. Stefon Diggs is banged up, and never plays as well when he appears on the injury report. Adam Thielen got hit hard last week and suffered a neck injury, but should be good to go for Saturday. Expect Rudolph to be heavily involved once again this week, with high TE1 upside in this matchup.

Davante Adams (WR, GB)

Davante Adams disappointed in a big way last week, catching only two passes for 25 yards. What is more upsetting is that he had two sure-fire touchdowns go right through his hands for incompletions. Adams has had some huge games this season, but has now alternated good and bad weeks over the past four games. In a difficult Week 16 matchup he will be a low floor, high ceiling option. He is always capable of catching those TD passes; last week was just tougher since he dropped two of them.

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