September 2, 2021

Phil Goyette takes a look at deeper fantasy baseball dynasty pitching prospects, prospect sleepers that should be on your fantasy radars in deep dynasty leagues.

Welcome the latest update of The Outsiders, where I highlight pitching prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

This week, I'm going to use my "classic" Outsider+ formula to review the top pitching performances in each level of minor league baseball. I'll use Outsider+ to pick one pitcher from each level to highlight.

I've also included two more metrics for reference points. EstRA is my ERA estimator that just uses K%, BB%, and GB%. Read it just like you would ERA or FIP. ZoneDominance+ (ZnDm+) takes a blend of a pitcher's strike-throwing ability and whiff-generation ability relative to league average. In other words, his ability to dominate in the zone.

Here are this week's Outsiders:

Cody Morris - Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland right-hander Cody Morris gets the nod as the top Outsider in the Triple-A East. Morris was on my initial Outsiders list prior to the start of the year, but missed a good chunk of time this season due to injury. Well he's back now, and he looks like his old self again. Morris has made nine starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year, lighting up the Outsider component leaderboard the whole time. If you're wondering who the next pop-up starting pitcher in the Cleveland system will be, Morris might be as good a guess as any.

A.J. Alexy - Texas Rangers

Speaking of potential call-ups, the Rangers' A.J. Alexy made his MLB debut this week against the Rockies. Alexy was an 11th round selection by the Dodgers back in the 2016 MLB draft. He was part of the return that sent Yu Darvish to the Dodgers back in 2017. Alexy posted a sub-2.00 ERA at both Double-A and Triple-A this year. He's done it by dominating hitters, racking up tons of whiffs and strikeouts (143 Swinging Strike%+ at Triple-A this year). He flashed a four-pitch mix in his debut with a four-seam fastball sitting around 93 mph. There's a potential backend starter here for the Rangers.

Alan Rangel - Atlanta Braves

Alan Rangel is a 24-year-old Mexican right-hander that was signed by the Braves all the way back in 2014. He's been fantastic in Double-A this year, showing excellent control (241 BB%+). He's also been well above average at generating swinging strikes. He works with a fastball up in the zone that tunnels extremely well with a changeup that can make hitters look foolish at times. For example:

Jose Butto - New York Mets

Venezuelan righty Jose Butto already made an appearance on the Outsiders list earlier this summer. He's split time between High-A and Double-A this season, and his numbers actually improved upon his promotion up a level. Butto limits the walks because he throws a lot of strikes, but he can also has the stuff to generate whiffs in the strike zone. He challenges hitters up in the strike zone with a four-seam fastball that gets great ride and carry.

Cody Bradford - Texas Rangers

Cody Bradford has made 18 starts this season between High-A and Double-A. Upon promotion to Double-A Frisco, his surface stats really took a jump. He's posted an impressive 1.69 ERA in five starts there this year. He's been extremely dominant in the zone at Double-A, throwing tons of strikes while still generating whiffs at a rate 40% above the league average. He's a lefty with a long stride causing his fastball to jump on batters. He backs the fastball up with two potentially effective secondaries in a changeup and curveball.

Gavin Stone - Los Angeles Dodgers

Gavin Stone was the Dodgers' 5th round selection in the abbreviated 2020 MLB draft. Stone pitched for Central Arkansas in college, making him an under-the-radar signing by LA. Will he be the next arm that the Dodgers' are able to develop and turn into a valuable MLB piece? My Estimated ERA metric thinks it's very possible. Over 21 starts in 2021, Stone has shown an ability to limit walks, keep the ball on the ground, and most importantly, strike out a lot of batters. He's a guy that could potentially rise up prospect boards next season.

Misael Tamarez - Houston Astros

Misael Tamarez is a 21-year-old Dominican righty that has been promoted to High-A this season. Tamarez performed well for Low-A Fayetteville, but something about the promotion to High-A Asheville has really allowed him to blossom. His ability to throw a good amount of strikes while generating plenty of whiffs gives him a glistening ZoneDominance+ rating that's 18% above the league average in High-A. He's a strong righty with a fastball that touches 97 and a changeup that can baffle hitters. He's added a slider to his pitch mix this year, which could be a key for him to remain an rotation option for the Astros moving forward.

Ryan Murphy - San Francisco Giants

Giants righty Ryan Murphy hasn't missed a beat since being promoted to High-A Eugene at the end of July. He's posted a glistening 1.65 ERA over five starts there while limiting opposing batters to a .130 batting average against. He's got plenty of deception on the bump which allows his fastball to play-up. Look for him to take another developmental step in the upper minors next season.

Nick Swiney - San Francisco Giants

Nick Swiney is a left-hander that the Giants took with the 67th overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft. Swiney battled injuries early in the year, but since his return to the bump, he's been absolutely electric. He has yet to allow an earned run in his first four starts for Low-A San Jose, and opponents are only managing to bat .163 against him. The Giants are likely to take it easy with him for the rest of the season, but he's a name to file away for 2022 as he could move quickly up the minor league ladder.

Jean Pinto - Baltimore Orioles

Hey kids, want to see a pitcher that could fly up lists next year? Keep your eye on Orioles Venezuelan righty Jean Pinto. He torched the competition in the Florida Complex League before getting bumped up to full-season ball, where he's continued to dominate. His feel for spin just looks like something that you can't really teach. He can manipulate the breaker into different shapes and lands the pitch for strikes at a good clip. His fastball has been sitting around 93 mph this year. In the event that bumps up a tick as he matures, his whole profile is going to play up even more. Very excited by the potential here.

Jared Jones - Pittsburgh Pirates

This California prep arm has made his full-season debut after being selected in the 2nd round of the 2020 MLB draft. Jared Jones' surface line isn't all that impressive (4.23 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), but if you dig a bit deeper, there's a ton to like here. My Estimated ERA thinks he should be sporting an ERA about a full run lower than present, and his ability to pound the zone with strikes makes me think his WHIP should come down as he works his way up the ladder as well. He's got a fastball with some armside run that he will climb the zone with that touches 98 mph. He backs that up with a slider with solid two-plane break that should baffle hitters. He could be a special arm.

Reny Artiles - Cleveland Guardians

Reny Artiles has a 4.67 ERA in his stateside debut in the Arizona Complex League, but his underlying metrics look much better than that. Information is very scant on this Dominican right-hander, but remember his name next season!

Carlos Jimenez - Pittsburgh Pirates

Carlos Jimenez is a Venezuelan righty who has been very strong in his stateside debut as an 18-year-old in the Florida Complex League. He performed very well as a 16-year-old in the DSL back in 2019 as well. His results relative to his age in his pro career thus far are very promising.

Joel Diaz - New York Mets

I talked about Joel Diaz in the prior Outsiders pitching piece. He's a 17-year-old with a frame that looks like it could be MLB ready right now. He should be stateside next summer.

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