Spencer Aguiar's Top One And Done Picks To Consider - Fortinet Championship

September 14, 2022

Spencer Aguiar dives into his most intriguing One and Done selections for the Fortinet Championship. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for you to consider at this week's event.

Here at RotoBaller, we are constantly searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, I am proud to announce my weekly PGA "One and Done" column, where I will look through some of my favorite potential targets on the board.

As has always been the case, you will be able to find the "staff picks" when we start the RotoBaller contest back up in 2023, but I am going to use this offseason to deep-dive into the boards for anyone that might be playing in a league that begins at the Fortinet Championship.

It remains to be seen if I will restart the tracking once the official year starts back up at the Sony Open since we might land in an awkward situation of two contests going on at once, but remember, any pick I make will be out of consideration moving forward. I'll always try to allude to options I no longer have at my disposal, but my top five list will be golfers I have not played as of that moment.

Let's start from #5 and work our way down to my best pick for the event.

One and Done Selections - Fortinet Championship

#5 - Patrick Rodgers

If you are in a contest where you are forced to make two selections, Patrick Rodgers becomes the ideal second candidate because of his Poa prowess and California excellence throughout his career. While we will want to stay unique with our selections to not fall into the trap of grabbing golfers that everyone is playing for the week, we also don't want to go too far down the board since losing win equity to be different can be done in a way that doesn't force our hands into taking players ranked outside what we would deem the "realistic path of consideration."

For reference sake, and to further touch on that point, we only need to choose roughly 40-50 players throughout the season in a single-entry contest, which means going outside of that range is almost always going to be too aggressive - unless, of course, the field is that weak OR a specific player is cracking the top-ranked spot on your model. That isn't the case here with Rodgers, so consider this an area where the American is worth a speculative add as the second man in your build, but let's try to be more cautious in other situations, even if I love his potential upside.

#4 - Davis Riley

Picking a player at the right moment is half the battle in these contests since you only have one chance at once chance. That mentality would lead me to believe that we might want to be patient on the uber-talented Davis Riley, who showed flashes of excellence during his rookie season, but the number one ranking he is providing in my reweighed total driving + weighted approach category has me willing to think outside of the box on a golfer that will go wildly under-owned.

Riley's potential is still up for debate, meaning we could feel like we sacrificed him too early in the season if he becomes the prospect he showed during his best form, but the real reason he didn't move up any further on my list stemmed from the fact that his Poa production left a ton to be desired - ranking 90th in my model during his time on tour.

#3 - Taylor Pendrith

The case for Taylor Pendrith is that he is number one on my model. The case against him is that I'd have to imagine he ends up being the most popular choice for the week. I am not going to talk anyone out of this route since I have learned never to go against my model, but the fact that we can get more upside on options like Maverick McNealy and Max Homa while likely securing targets that won't be as popular was enough for me to slide him down my board.

Pendrith's distance should not be discounted, but I will take my shot with him as an outright at 30/1 and sleep just fine if he is able to take down the event.

#2 - Maverick McNealy

I might have big-brained myself here last minute by switching Maverick McNealy from number one to number two on this list. All I could think about was how badly I would want to play the California native at Pebble Beach months down the road when going back and forth on that decision.

Let's not get it twisted; McNealy is the aggressive route that keeps all your bullets in your holster while still giving you a top-end talent, even if the floor does feel much lower than most of his counterparts on the week. The birdie or better and par-five scoring stats are incredibly tantalizing, but I'll stop him at number two and hope my top choice goes marginally underlooked because everyone gets cute.

#1 - Max Homa

How aggressive do you want to get in week one? I certainly think Max Homa has the potential to go back-to-back at Silverado because of his immaculate par-five scoring metrics, but will we find a better spot for him this season? The short answer to that is probably not since I do believe we are looking at one or two places max where he could arrive as the favorite; no pun intended there, but it comes down to trying and figure out if we ever get him as this high-end of an option again?

For what it is worth, only Patrick Rodgers, Maverick McNealy, Wyndham Clark and Max Homa grade inside the top 25 of this field for driving distance and recalculated putting to mimic the venue, and while I do believe McNealy is the sneaky option to get your season started in a unique sense, Homa's upside should be viewed as the highest in this field, making him my choice at the Fortinet Championship.

Official Selection: Max Homa

Running Totals

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