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Wednesday kicks off with Paolo Banchero and the Magic traveling to Cleveland to take on the Donovan Mitchell-led Cavaliers, two projects that have yielded positive results early. Darius Garland may be out, but Mitchell scored 31 points in his debut and has increased that output in the two games since, likely to continue that trend against a mediocre Magic defense. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen match up really well against an undermanned frontcourt that consists of just Wendell Carter Jr., but Orlando won’t go away easily when young stars like Banchero, Franz Wagner, Carter Jr., and Cole Anthony are all healthy.
With the same start time, the Pistons host the Hawks in a game that is going to feature heavy backcourt usage and four young players that are arguably at the top their respective draft classes. Dejounte Murray has adapted to Atlanta’s offense exactly how we’d expect an ex-Spur to, but the Hawks are lacking depth so his role will be ever-increasing as long as he can play. The X-factor each night will be how well DeAndre Hunter plays each night, so be expect Atlanta’s starting lineup to exhausted by mid-season with how much they’ll have to contribute each night early in the year.
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ORL @ CLE
Donovan Mitchell (CLE) MORE 28.5 Points – Paolo Banchero (ORL) MORE 18.5 Points
Until the Magic put forward a better backcourt defense, there’s no way they can expect to stop players like Donovan Mitchell. After scoring 37 last game, Mitchell has shown this type of production his whole career. Depending on who he has at his disposal and how well they are playing, Mitchell is rarely playing second-fiddle even on off-nights. He shoots out of slumps and this will be the second team where he’s earned the trust of his teammates to run this offense until the wheels fall off. As long as his projected to score under 30 points you have to take the over.
Paolo Banchero has ye to score below 20 points his NBA career, but this will be his biggest test. Neither Mobley or Allen concede much ground on the defensive end and Banchero likes to do most of his generating from the inside-out. He’s able to contribute from outside the paint, but it’s not exactly his priority and it’s doubtful he concedes much on that. The Cavaliers defense can lock in and shut down players that thrive at the rim, but Banchero’s ability to draw fouls makes it easy to why the trend of 20+ points per night should stay intact.
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ATL @ DET
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 25.5 Points – Cade Cunningham (DET) MORE 18.5 Points
Detroit’s backcourt might have potential on the offensive end, but there’s not enough defense to contain someone like Trae Young. Young is going to get shots up and the addition of Dejounte Murray has increased his spacing even more, the only problem is that the Hawks have no bench weapons. When Young is out the Hawks suffer, so expect Young to be initiating early and often in hopes to put this game out of reach. The more the Hawks can try to develop their bench rather than improve the better it will be for them. That just doesn’t change the fact that to get to that point, Trae Young needs to put up MVP-esque numbers.
If Banchero and Cunningham’s point projections are the same despite their production, you can already tell this algorithm for bets is a little funky. Cunningham should score 20 points each night, but he hasn’t and that’s where the concern lies. Cunningham is too invested in getting teammates involved. He rarely resorts to hero-ball and sometimes that’s needed when placing points bets. Even against this Hawks defense, only Murray poses a threat to Cunningham since John Collins, Clint Capela, and Onyeka Okongwu all share paint responsibilities. Although he should score 20 points every night, it depends more on him rather than the defense since Cunningham is taking near 20-shots a night.
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PHI @ TOR
Joel Embiid (PHI) MORE 28.5 Points – Pascal Siakam (TOR) MORE 23.5 Points
Just because the 76ers are struggling doesn’t mean Joel Embiid’s box score is. Until the team figures something out, Embiid continues to be the main asset for Philadelphia. He’s deservedly taking the most shots and since James Harden is showing some streakiness, but not selfishness, Embiid’s production is rarely going to be in jeopardy. The Raptors defense is not prepared to face Embiid so the only downside here is whether or not the rest of the 76ers can provide some support and not get blown out.
Pascal Siakam is having a career year and has played over 40 minutes in Toronto’s last two contests. Without Scottie Barnes, Siakam’s upside improves drastically, but his 37-point triple-double came playing alongside a healthy Raptors team. Less options, obviously, makes Siakam a more dependent option in the offense, but there’s no reason to really consider that when he’s playing as well as he is.
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BKN @ MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) MORE 32.5 Points – Kevin Durant (BKN) MORE 29.5 Points
Two of the most dominant scorers in NBA history facing off can only mean good things. The Bucks are the better team from top-to-bottom, but what makes basketball beautiful is how individuals can change the dynamic of a game. Any team that features Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving has a chance to win a game. In this case, pitting Kevin Durant directly against his stronger, more paint-oriented counter-part could lead to two outcomes. Either Durant gets shut down and has an off game, which is possible for anyone. Or, Durant is inspired to shoot more, play more aggressive, and tries to match everything his opponent is producing, plus more… Has the former ever been the case?
If there is anyone in the league that can stop Giannis Antetokounmpo, they should make their presence known. Nicolas Claxton anchoring your frontcourt isn’t terrible, but when you line up against Antetokounmpo, you start to wish your Center could dribble and drive and shoot and dunk on everyone. What worries me here is whether or not the Nets can keep this game close outside of Durant and Irving. Those two will produce, but the question is if the supporting cast will allow them to have a fighting chance and exceed projections.
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