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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/16/2025). Bet his strikeout props (K props) for strikeouts thrown and win money betting on MLB player props.
I'm not sure I have the authority to do this, but on behalf of Major League Baseball, I'd like to officially declare today "Comeback Wednesday," as we will witness the 2025 debuts of Spencer Strider, Bobby Miller, and Clarke Schmidt. And yes, we will be wagering on a few of those gentleman to hit their strikeout props today, too!
Sure, players will fluctuate throughout the year on a game-by-game basis and from year to year, but we usually get a pretty good sense of how strikeout percentages will look within the first four to five starts for pitchers and 150 at-bats for hitters. We are still waiting on larger sample sizes for maximum confidence, but in the meantime, we can still take some shots at projecting how pitchers will fare in the K column today.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop for the best price with other books.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Strikeout Prop Picks
Here are the starting pitchers I'll cover for Wednesday, April 16:
- Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
- Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays
- Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers
- Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs
- Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Max Meyer, Miami Marlins
- Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees
- Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels
Spencer Strider OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
He's back! We were robbed of watching one of the finest strikeout artists in baseball last season as Strider missed nearly all of the 2024 campaign due to an arm injury. But Strider is set to debut against Toronto today and has the lowest K prop we will likely see from him all season at 5.5.
That low number is a combination of the tough matchup (Toronto is currently the toughest team to strike out against RHP at 17.4 percent) and the uncertainty around how long Strider will last in terms of a pitch count (and maybe just a little skepticism about how he will fare against major league hitters).
But in case you missed it, Strider struck out 13 in his final tune-up start at Triple-A and was intentionally stretched out to 90 pitches in that outing. So I'm operating on the assumption that he will get at least 90 today.
I went back and watched some of his last start, and he was bringing the four-seamer at 96 mph while making guys look silly with his slider. He threw his changeup at 85 mph a few times, too, and that third pitch might be the key to his longevity in the majors, so he doesn't have to be so fastball-slider heavy in his approach.
Anyways, for today, I'm fine backing one of the best strikeout pitchers we've seen in the last decade to get six against the Jays, even if they did chew up my boy Spencer Schwellenbach last night. Avenge us, Spencer, and welcome back!
Chris Bassitt OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-108 FanDuel)
Strider's opponent today is Chris Bassitt, who is sporting a 29 percent K percentage through his first three starts, good for the second-best mark of any pitcher on the rubber today. Bassitt has a great spring training, and that success has carried over into the regular season as well.
He's not walking many this year (just a 4 percent BB percentage) and getting hitters to chase his wide variety of breaking pitches, as evidenced by an elite 36.4 O-Swing percentage.
Chris Bassitt, Nasty Cutter. ✂️
[Love how excited he gets when he gets a pitch called that he likes. 🙂] pic.twitter.com/1NId39eAVo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 6, 2025
Bassitt throws a lot of junk, but is a veteran who has mastered his craft. He can adapt to hitters in real time and adjust his approach to them in the game based on how they're timing him up. It's a very cool thing to watch, and it's always refreshing to see a guy who can sit down major league hitters today without an overpowering fastball.
Bassitt has gone over this number in two of three starts, just missing it against Boston with five strikeouts his last time out. But this matchup today is a good one as Atlanta still ranks third in the majors in K% vs. RHP at 25.6%.
Jose Quintana UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)
Quintana made his debut for Milwaukee and looked like a pitcher who might be on the verge of retirement. I joke here as it feels like Quintana should be 50 years old, but the lefty is just 36 and has had a really solid career over the last 14 seasons.
Maybe I shouldn't judge him too harshly based on one start, but his numbers were really bad. His K percentage has been fading over the years to where he struck out just 18.8 percent of hitters the last two seasons in New York, but in his first start of the season, it was only nine percent.
He had only a 2.5 SwStr percentage and a very bad 95.5 Z-Contact percentage. Those numbers will likely improve, but seeing him at 5.5 is an easy under for me here, even if Detroit is somewhat strikeout-prone and some juice is attached to the pick.
Matthew Boyd OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
Boyd has been a delightful surprise for the Cubs this season. The veteran lefty has allowed only three earned runs over his first three starts, striking out at least five in each.
Matthew Boyd, Wicked 82mph Back Foot Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/9vM3FuBq7R
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 5, 2025
One of those starts was against his opponent tonight, the San Diego Padres. While the Pads are an excellent lineup, Boyd's stuff is good enough to get there. We saw Shota Imanaga pile up seven strikeouts against them last night, and they may be cooling off a bit after a red-hot start.
Boyd's underlying numbers are solid enough for me to support him and back him to clear this low number yet again.
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Pfaadt has yet to strike out six hitters this season, so why am I betting on him to do it today? Well, to start, he's due for some positive strikeout regression as his underlying metrics (11.4 percent SwStr percentage, 36.9 O-Swing percentage) suggest that his 17.4 percent strikeout rate is too low and he's been a bit unlucky. He's also had a slew of tough matchups to start the year (CHC, BAL, WAS), which has suppressed his K totals as well.
Brandon Pfaadt, Dirty 84mph Curveball...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/hqoBETlrx3
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 9, 2025
But overall, Pfaadt is pitching well this season with a 3.93 SIERA and a tiny 4.3 percent BB%. Today is the day he gets to beat up on a much weaker opponent as he faces a Marlins team that whiffs at the second-highest rate in all of baseball (26.6 percent). Miami also doesn't walk much, so I think Pfaadt has the opportunity to be efficient in this game and pitch into the sixth or seventh inning, giving him an even better chance of clearing this bar at 5.5 strikeouts.
Max Meyer OVER 3.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)
Meyer has looked darn good this season, and his breakout is one of the few highlights for the Marlins in 2025. The young righty has a 25.7 percent K percentage through three starts and has cleared this number (3.5K) in every start.
Max Meyer, Dirty 90mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/33U86haubx
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 9, 2025
He's also been pretty efficient, walking only 6.8 percent of batters, which has allowed him to pitch into the sixth inning or deeper every time out. While Arizona is another matchup we usually avoid, Meyer has been good enough that I think he can get to four strikeouts if he finishes five or six frames.
Clarke Schmidt OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-115 FanDuel)
I'll admit I am a little more nervous about Schmidt's pitch count in his debut than Strider's, as Schmidt threw just 51 and 62 pitches in his two rehab starts. So we might be looking at a 70-75 pitch situation, which probably caps him at five innings if he's relatively efficient.
Still, Schmidt was so solid last season with a 27 percent K percentage and looked good in those rehab starts, too, striking out 11 between them. I like to be aggressive on these 4.5 numbers when we get them, and Schmidt certainly has the strikeout chops to get it done, even in a fairly neutral matchup against the Royals.
Jose Soriano OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-112 FanDuel)
Soriano is off to a great start this season, sporting a 3.44 SIERA and 24.3 percent K percentage through three starts. He's had five or more in two of those starts, finishing with four his last time out against Tampa Bay. That strikeout total may be a little misleading, as the Angels were playing with a big lead for most of the game, and Soriano may have decided to pitch to contact and cruise to a win rather than battle every hitter for a strikeout.
Texas is a neutral matchup here, entering this game with a 22 percent strikeout rate vs. RHP. But I like Soriano's chances here as he's gone 90+ pitches in each of his last two outings and has the potential to pitch deep enough into this game to get five Ks.
It's early in the year, but we don't see this many 4.5 K totals for above-average strikeout pitchers, so I am going to continue the trend of aggressively attacking them with both Soriano and Schmidt.
Good luck if you're tailing any or all of these picks, and thanks for reading!
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