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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/14/2025). Bet his strikeout props (K props) for strikeouts thrown and win money betting on MLB player props.
One of these days, I am going to have a big day of results on the same day that I pen this article. Right now, it feels like my K prop picks always hit harder the day before or after, with the case in point being a crummy 2-5 record in Saturday's article followed by a 4-1 performance yesterday. I will continue to trust the process, and if you stick around with me, I think we will come out on top more often than not.
Sure, players will fluctuate throughout the year on a game-by-game basis and from year to year, but we usually get a pretty good sense of how strikeout percentages will look within the first four to five starts for pitchers and 150 at-bats for hitters. We are still waiting on larger sample sizes for maximum confidence, but in the meantime, we can still take some shots on projecting how pitchers will fare in the K column today.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, April 14, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop for the best price with other books.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Strikeout Prop Picks
Here are the starting pitchers I'll cover for Saturday, April 12:
- Easton Lucas, Toronto Blue Jays
- Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
- Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
- Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
- Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
- Antonio Senzatela, Colorado Rockies
Easton Lucas OVER 3.5 strikeouts (-170 DraftKings) and 4.5 strikeouts (+115 FanDuel)
I had to dig on this young lefty, as I didn't know all that much about him before this season. He's already 28 years old, has bounced around between five different organizations, and has very limited experience in the major leagues, having thrown just 28 innings in the last three seasons.
Last year, he was very good at the Triple-A level with a 28% K% and serviceable this spring with an 18% K%. He has had some walk issues in the minors but has kept it in check this year (8%).
Easton Lucas just EMBARRASSED THE Boston Red Sox
IP: 5.1
H: 3
ER: 0
BB: 1
SO: 8Get your Cy Young bets in now folks 🔥 pic.twitter.com/9h6qFcIzHe
— Blue Jays Today (@TodayJays) April 9, 2025
It's only been two starts this season, but he got my attention when he whiffed eight Red Sox in his last start. We are dealing with tiny sample sizes here, and the Boston game could end up being an outlier, but the overall numbers look good across the board, and Lucas's K total should be aided by the Braves' whiffing ways, too.
Atlanta continues to struggle at the plate, and that's been against both lefties and righties. Against LHP, they are striking out at a 25% clip and sporting just a 56 wRC+. We need four strikeouts to hit the DK prop, and adding the FD prop at plus odds gives us an opportunity for some extra profit if he can get five.
Tarik Skubal OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-160 DraftKings)
Skubal has not quite looked like the reigning Cy Young champ so far this season, but there are still plenty of signs that more strikeouts are coming. He's still posting a very strong 15.8% SwStr% and 75% Z-Contact% with a slate-best Stuff+ mark of 117.
I don't love paying this much juice, but it could be one of the last times we get a chance to get Skubal at this low of a number. Paul Skenes is set at 7.5 against Washington in a worse matchup, for example. I'd rather take Skubal to get seven against a middling Milwaukee lineup. He's got the stuff to get it done, and I think we'll start to see some positive regression on his 23% K%.
Framber Valdez OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
Valdez is known more as a groundball pitcher than a strikeout artist, but he's picked up the pace in the K department lately, whiffing nine Giants and eight Mariners in his last two starts.
He enters today's game with a 29.6% K% and a Stuff+ rating of 115. While the range of outcomes with Valdez is usually pretty wide, depending on what pitches he's featuring in any given start, one thing that works in our favor here is that he usually has a long leash and is allowed to throw 90 or more pitches.
His ability to pitch deeper into games gives this over even more appeal because he can still get over the 5.5K threshold in the sixth or even seventh inning sometimes. I like him in this spot, and the Cardinals are still whiffing 23% of the time against lefties.
Sonny Gray OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
We are attacking the hitters on both sides of this game. Sonny has been fantastic through his first three starts this season, compiling a 30.6% K% while walking only 3.2% of the hitters he's faced. He's not an overpowering pitcher, but he has some great breaking pitches and an underrated veteran "craftiness" to know how to set hitters up with pitch sequencing.
Gray has strong underlying numbers, including a 15.2% SwStr% and 79.4% Z-Contact%. He came up a little short against the Pirates in his last start (just four strikeouts), but he pitched well and was lifted after only 71 pitches as the Cardinals led 5-1 at that point.
Houston has struggled with strikeouts this year (24% vs. RHP), significantly more than in years prior, so I don't mind being aggressive here and attacking them with a polished pitcher who is in great form.
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Jameson Taillon OVER 3.5 strikeouts (-155 DraftKings)
I'm ready to reverse course on Taillon, who burned me a few starts ago when I bet his under. I am going over 3.5 tonight even though Taillon faces one of the hardest teams in all of MLB to strike out - here's why.
Taillon's last two starts have been impressive as he's whiffed seven Athletics and six Rangers. His SwStr% is now up to 13.5%, which is a number that can sustain more than Taillon's 19% K%. It's telling me that this version of Taillon could be a 23 to 25% strikeout pitcher if he can keep doing what he's been doing.
Jameson Taillon, Hammers. ⚒️⚒️
And is fired up. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/0CNswQdsZO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 9, 2025
The biggest change I can see is that he's upped his four-seam fastball usage significantly. That leaves him a little more prone to giving up loud contact, but it also signifies a more aggressive style of pitching since he's totally ditched his sinker (a pitch much more commonly associated with pitching to contact and trying to induce groundballs).
The bar is low here, and if Taillon can avoid a big inning early, I think he could cruise over four strikeouts. I'm willing to invest in what appears to be a pitcher who is on the verge of a mini-breakout due to the change in his arsenal.
Joe Ryan UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (-155 DraftKings)
Are you sick of reading about overs? I have some unders, too, don't worry! Let's start with Minnesota's ace, Joe Ryan.
While Ryan is a master of control and has yet to walk a hitter, he's also only struck out 23% of the batters he's faced, too. The SwStr% is low at 9.6%, which is a number that is associated more with a 20% K% - so he may be been overperforming on Ks due to the underlying metrics.
Most importantly, for this prop, the matchup is terrible. The Mets have the fifth-best K% against righties, at just 19%. Ryan is a solid pitcher, and I think he will probably pitch well tonight. However, this number is too high (and he's yet to clear 6.5 this season).
Antonio Senzatela UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (-160 DraftKings)
I had some fun looking up this stat for Senzatela today. The last time he struck out four hitters in a baseball game was August 1, 2022. Now, to be fair, he has only made 11 starts since then over the past two or more seasons, but still - this is a guy who simply doesn't strike people out. He never has, and he's not likely to start today against the Dodgers, either.
As you might expect, Senzatela has the worst K% (eight percent) on very poor metrics across the board. He just doesn't miss bats, despite throwing in the mid-90s. Perhaps it's his approach, and he doesn't care if he strikes guys out, as he relies a lot on groundballs, but I feel pretty good about him staying under four today against one of the best lineups in baseball.
Good luck if you're tailing any or all of these picks, and thanks for reading!
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