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BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 150

CURRENT ADP: ~180 overall

ANALYSIS: In the space of a couple of months at the end of 2018, Luke Voit went from a fading first base prospect with a mediocre short first stint in the majors to a legitimate starting MLB first baseman. His late-season hot streak started in August, where he hit four home runs with a .333 batting average in 49 plate appearances. It then continued into September where he hit an impressive 10 home runs and maintained that .333 batting average through another 99 PA. Can he carry over that form into 2019?

Of course, it is extremely unlikely that Voit carries on in exactly the vein he finished 2018. Continuing to have a 40.5% HR/FB rate and a .350 ISO would be expecting a lot, to say the least. Especially given he never had that impressive of a power profile in the minors. However, there is a reason for optimism. Voit does not qualify for the Statcast leaderboards due to his relative lack of PA, but if he did he would have placed joint eighth in average exit velocity, matching the output of J.D. Martinez. Additionally, if we just look at his average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, he would also have ranked 21st, this time right behind J.D. Martinez.

Those exit velocity numbers demonstrate that Voit is a legitimate power threat in 2019. If he is the everyday first baseman in New York, 30 home runs are extremely possible. Additionally, his expected batting average last season was .296, demonstrating that while that .333 mark from last season may not be repeated he is unlikely to suddenly bottom out with a batting average in the low .200s. Finally, there has also been a suggestion from his manager, Aaron Boone, that he could hit clean up to start the season. If he is hitting in that spot all season then he has the potential to put up a combined 200 runs and RBI in 2019.


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