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With the calendar flipping to July, we've now reached the rough midpoint of the 2021 season. As with any other year, it's been a mixed bag of expected results and wild surprises. As anticipated, the Dodgers and Padres are running neck and neck in the National League West...but both are behind the Giants, who somehow own the best record in baseball.
Back in March, just as I've done every spring since joining the RotoBaller team nearly seven years ago (cringes at the cruel and quickening passage of time), I published 10 bold predictions for the campaign ahead. Generally, my goal is to hit on three of the 10. If .300 is good enough for a major league hitter - and this year, it's well beyond that - it's good enough for me.
There's obviously plenty of baseball left to play, but let's check in on how that spring speculation is looking at the halfway mark. As an aside, based on previous years, it's worth thinking about players who miss the mark this time around for 2022, as I am usually good for at least one "a year too early" bold prediction - see last year's calls that Craig Kimbrel would lead MLB in saves and Shohei Ohtani would return first-round value in daily leagues where he's a two-way player.
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Ty France Outperforms Cavan Biggio In 5x5
France has Biggio beat in four of the five standard hitter categories, with only stolen bases in the latter's favor. It's true that Biggio has played in 15 fewer games, but health is a skill, and even when he's been able to suit up, the Blue Jays' second baseman has failed to live up to lofty preseason expectations.
After producing a .240-107-24-76-20 line in his first 159 games in the majors, Biggio has just six homers and two steals in 55 games this year to go along with tepid run production (21 runs, 18 RBI).
France hasn't been spectacular (.261 AVG, 8 HR, 68 R+BI in 70 games), but he's been more valuable than Biggio even before you take the disparity in their acquisition costs into account.
Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant Both Finish Top-5 At Their Positions
Not looking good here. Bryant has made the expected resurgence, but a middling June performance has dropped him to sixth among all third basemen in 5x5. Given how he's outproducing many of the players drafted ahead of him, though, fantasy managers who placed their faith in him likely aren't complaining much.
Rizzo, however, has been a disappointment. After averaging a .284-90-30-99-7 line from 2014-19, he has hit just .236 since the start of the abbreviated 2020 campaign and is pacing toward his worst full-season performance ever in the power and run production departments. His Statcast data portends better results moving forward, but he'd need to have an unreal second half to even sniff the top five at first base.
All Five Members of the Marlins' Opening Day Rotation Are Top-60 Starters
This one was doomed more or less immediately, and as expected it was due to the virtual impossibility of an entire rotation avoiding injury. Elieser Hernandez (quadriceps) has only been able to make two starts, while Sixto Sanchez's shoulder issues have proven so onerous that he may not even appear in a game this season.
Really, I should have simply touted Trevor Rogers on his own, given the enormous gap between his ADP (outside the top 100 starting pitchers) and results (SP12). That didn't feel quite bold enough despite how little attention he received in drafts this spring, though in retrospect perhaps putting him the top 25 starters might have passed muster. Even with an innings limit looming, Rogers should be able to make that happen.
...While Zach Plesac Is Not
Plesac might well be in the top 60 starters if he hadn't broken a thumb in late May while "aggressively removing his shirt." (Not to make light of an injury, but that description is just so perfectly bizarre that it will never fail to make me chuckle.) Still, as I expected, he's come nowhere close to justifying the top-80 pick fantasy managers were required to surrender to secure his services.
The WHIP (1.02) remains excellent, but his strikeout gains from a year ago have completely vanished and a 4.14 ERA doesn't cut it when paired with a K/9 below 6.00. While he should return not long after the All-Star break, nothing we saw in the first half suggests he can be the stud many hoped for.
Andrew Benintendi Rises From The Ashes, Notches Top-25 OF Season
Despite making this prediction, I didn't land a single share of Benintendi this year; someone else always reached for him before I could call his name. After a .624 OPS in April, it felt like I'd dodged a bullet, but the former first-round pick quickly turned things around to the point that he's still comfortably in the top 50 at his position despite missing the last three weeks with a broken rib.
Projecting his current stats out to a full season yields output remarkably similar to his 2017-18 production. Top 25 may wind up a bit too lofty, but after a couple of years in the wilderness, Benintendi has definitely returned to form and fantasy relevance.
Emmanuel Clase Is a Top-5 RP
Clase has pitched quite well this year with an 0.85 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 11 saves. Were he not sharing the ninth inning with James Karinchak (nine saves), he'd be in the mix, but without a monopoly on save opportunities in Cleveland, it'll be impossible for him to meet this benchmark.
Nevertheless, he's provided an excellent return on the pittance of an investment needed to roster him this spring.
Ramon Laureano Outperforms Luis Robert In 5x5
It's never fun to hit on one of these because somebody got hurt, and that's what happened here. Robert's hip injury back in early May will keep him out of action until the final month of the season at best, and the nature of the injury means it's likely that his performance will suffer if and when he does return to action.
Before getting hurt, he was hitting .316 with four stolen bases, but the former was propped up by a .433 BABIP and he had only homered once in 102 plate appearances. It's a shame we didn't get to see how his year would have played out.
For his part, Laureano has been quite good, despite a hip injury of his own. He swiped eight bases in nine attempts in his first nine games, but failed on both of his other gambles in April and hasn't tried to steal since. He also has 13 home runs and 65 R+BI in 60 games, along with an acceptable .250 batting average. That's enough to put him within striking distance of the top 100 overall players.
The Brewers' Most Valuable SP Isn't Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes - It's Freddy Peralta
Peralta has been a revelation in 2021, ranking fifth among all starting pitchers in standard formats. He owns fantastic ratios (2.17 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) and has struck out 112 batters in 87 innings. And yet if the season ended today, this would be a miss, because Woodruff has been even better thus far.
Burnes was similarly transcendent before looking more human recently, which has dropped him behind Peralta in the ranks. The trio is a big reason why the Brewers are leading the NL Central, and it will be interesting to see how the team manages their workloads moving forward.
The #1 Catcher Is Christian Vázquez
Vázquez is having a perfectly fine season - he ranks fourth among catchers so far - but the better choice for a bold prediction here would have been Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who has scored more runs and stolen 15 bases versus "only" eight for Vázquez.
After hitting 30 homers in 185 games during 2019-20, the Red Sox backstop has only gone yard four times this year. With Salvador Perez doing his thing and Buster Posey turning back the clock, this isn't likely to land in the win column.
C.J. Cron Is A Top-100 Player
Cron isn't even in the top 250 right now, with disappointing counting stats (30 R, 10 HR, 29 RBI) and a .251 AVG that doesn't move the needle. He has a .959 OPS at Coors Field but just a .618 elsewhere, and has struggled against RHP no matter where the game's been played.
All statistics are for games played through June 30.
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