How Cordarrelle Patterson Is Winning Leagues

October 6, 2021

Atlanta Falcons RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson has been a waiver wire hero and breakout performer in 2021 fantasy football. Mike Kurland dives into Patterson's profile to determine if he will be a league winner or see regression.

We are entering Week 5 and Cordarelle Patterson has started the season off strong. He has been one of the best waiver wire acquisitions of the season to this point. Is this legit? Should we expect continued success moving forward or is this just all smoke?

The idea here is to dive into the usage and see if there is a path to season-long relevance and see if we can expect more of the same moving forward.

With how bad the running back is and how tough it is to come by depth at the position, it is easy to see how he is likely worth riding until the wheels fall off. Regardless, let’s take a deeper look.

Snap Share

Let’s start right here. Snap counts matter in terms of potential. The more snaps a player is on the field the better chance of a bigger game and more utilization. In theory that is. Cordarrelle Patterson has only eclipsed above a 40% snap rate just once this season.

• Week 1: 33.33%
• Week 2: 33.33%
• Week 3: 41.94%
• Week 4: 30.26%

Mike Davis has out-snapped him every week by at least 18% and in three weeks has out-snapped him by at least 30%.

Another factor that could hurt both Patterson and Davis is the inclusion of Wayne Gallman who received snaps for the first time this season and did not look half bad with them. In week four, Wayne Gallman had six carries for 29 yards (4.83 YPC) and had a target to boot. This usage is concerning in terms of capping his upside, however, Patterson has been utilized well given the limited opportunity.

Utilization 

Even while having a 34.4% snap share on the year, Cordarrelle Patterson has managed to be third on the team in target share (13.46), 4th on the team in air yards (55) and leads the team in receiving touchdowns (4). Three of which came this last week against the Washington Football Team. More on this later.

Patterson has played just 97 snaps. He just so happens to be utilized often when in the game. He is averaging a rush attempt every 3.59 snaps and a target every 4.61 snaps. He is making the most out of his snaps and is a player they look to get involved when he comes into the game. For reference, their leading receiver, Calvin Ridley, is averaging 6.02 snaps per target and their leading rusher, Mike Davis, is averaging a rush attempt every 3.84 snaps.

The offense on the whole has run 186 pass plays. Cordarrelle Patterson has been in for 65 of them. This ranks second among running backs on the team behind Mike Davis and seventh overall among position players on the team. Of his 65 pass plays, he has run a route on 78.5% of them and has lined up all over the field. Furthermore, he leads the falcons in targets per route run with 0.41 targets per route run.

Not to mention, over the last three weeks, he has had at least five receptions and at least 58 yards receiving. This does not include the touchdowns (five total) or rushing stats. Even if you factor in the touchdown regression, these receiving numbers give us a high floor in any PPR format.

Patterson continues to make the most of his opportunity garnering the third-most red zone targets on the team (4) and has four of the seven (57.14%) of the red zone rush attempts. He also has one of the two money zone carries as well as the only rushing touchdown of the year for the Falcons.

Week 4 Recap

This is where things get interesting. He scored three touchdowns this week thus really making his line stand out. He also had a season-high slot% of 31.9%. This marks the third straight week that the slot rate has increased. He lined up in the slot for seven plays this past week and that is more than the first three weeks of the season combined.

However, Russell Gage was injured and typically demands a large slot rate when he is in. He lines up in the slot 59.7% of the time which leads the team. With him out, this opened up an opportunity for Cordarrelle Patterson to see added work in the slot. Seeing how well it worked could lead to added opportunities there but that’s still to be determined.

Remember, Patterson had four red-zone targets on the year. Well, two came this past week alone. Not to mention all 55 air yards he has on the season came this past week as well. Week 4 was the outlier of his season so far. However, it is too early to say he won't see more reps as a wide receiver. Patterson can or should continue to demand these touches or increased usage given how effective he has been.

Verdict

The low snap rate is concerning but the utilization when he is on the field is there. He is a must-start option going forward until he proves he is not especially in PPR or half PPR formats. I am more likely to ride the wave and see where it goes personally. However, do not be afraid to sell high given the current snap rate and the likelihood of teams starting to game plan more for him.

If you can sell high (and that means high not settling for a middling player) then do so. You could likely pair him with a second player and make a two-for-one deal landing the best player. This might be the best path to getting the most out of his current value.

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