Hitters - A September To Remember

November 22, 2024

Jamie Steed looks at hitters who finished the 2024 season strongly. A productive September might just be noise to ignore but in the case of this trio, it warrants a closer look. They could carry that form into the 2025 season and prove to be draft day bargains.

There aren't many things more frustrating in fantasy baseball than seeing one of your players have a big September after struggling for most of the season. Health, bad luck, and a bad situation are just some of the many reasons a player might struggle for so long only to get things together in the final month.

A big finish to 2024 might not have been enough to help your teams this year, but it isn't something that should just be discredited. Here, we're looking at hitters who saved their biggest month of the season for September and should be targeted in 2025 drafts.

While this trio will all be taken in drafts, many may ignore their September, leaving them as draft day bargains. Don't forget to follow RotoBaller on X to get notified when articles drop. The team will be bringing you all the preseason baseball stuff you need. Without further ado, let's get into this.

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Julio Rodriguez - OF, Seattle Mariners

Season numbers: 20 HR, 68 RBI, 76 R, 24 SB, .273 AVG
September numbers: 7 HR, 22 RBI, 24 R, 6 SB, .328 AVG

Those of us who used an early first-round pick on Julio Rodriguez will have likely not had a successful fantasy season. A big September helped the outfielder to a third consecutive 20/20 season in the Majors. But it merely papered over the cracks after 32 homers and 37 steals in 2023.

Having suffered a sprained ankle in late July, Rodriguez missed three weeks. He hit .167/.250/.222 in the 14 games after returning from the IL. Something then clicked with Rodriguez, hitting nine homers in his final 29 games of the season, while putting up a 181 wRC+ to close out 2024.

Across the entirety of 2024, it was a familiar story for Rodriguez. His quality of contact was excellent and he had elite numbers across many metrics. His Statcast Profile (below) is similar to his previous two seasons. The problem once again was the lack of contact.

Among the 129 qualified hitters, Rodriguez's 71.4% Contact% ranked 115th. Among that group, Rodriguez's 38.5% Zone% (the percentage of pitches seen inside the strike zone) was the seventh-fewest. A testament to scouting reports identifying that Rodriguez chases too many pitches.

His 37.4% Chase% ranking in the sixth percentile is further evidence of that. It's not something that will change with Rodriguez but he has had success previously with that lack of plate discipline. And that is why I'm not too concerned by it but am buoyed by his September.

It's also worth noting that Rodriguez didn't have much protection in the lineup. J.P. Crawford couldn't build on his breakout 2023, Jorge Polanco struggled, and Luke Raley couldn't hit left-handed pitching (LHP). The acquisitions of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner didn't do much good either.

That's not to exonerate Rodriguez from his struggles. But it's fair to believe the Mariners will look to improve their offense significantly this offseason. Especially to support their elite pitching staff. If they can do that, Rodriguez should get to see more pitches in the strike zone.

Rodriguez won't be a consensus first-round pick in 2025. He's likely going to be taken early in the second round in most drafts. But if you have a late first-round pick, you should seriously consider taking Rodriguez with it. If 2024 was the floor, September should have acted as a reminder of his talent.

Wyatt Langford - OF, Texas Rangers

Season numbers: 16 HR, 74 RBI, 74 R, 19 SB, .253 AVG
September numbers: 8 HR, 20 RBI, 25 R, 7 SB, .300 AVG

Wyatt Langford was one of the hottest names in drafts this year. High expectations were put on the rookie which led to him being taken in the first half of drafts as Opening Day grew nearer. In an unsurprising turn of events, the rookie struggled to start the year and then injured his hamstring in early May.

At the time of the injury, Langford was hitting .224/.295/.293 with one home run, 11 RBI, 13 runs, and one stolen base. He had a 68 wRC+ in his first 31 games. Langford returned on May 28 and hit the ground running. In June, Langford hit .309/.368/.526 before things once again turned south.

If we look at Langford's numbers each month, we can see why fantasy managers had lost patience with the rookie as the season went on.

Rookie struggles shouldn't be a shock to anyone, even rookies as highly touted as Langford. And if we look at his season as a whole, Langford ended up four homers and one steal shy of a 20/20 season. That's after struggling for most of the year and missing more than three weeks.

Ordinarily, half of your homers in a season coming in one month isn't ideal. And hitting eight home runs in a month isn't something we should expect to be a regular occurrence. But it does suggest that Langford was finding his feet in the Majors and becoming more accomplished as a hitter.

Langford will likely be drafted around 20th among outfielders in 2025. Assuming he stays healthy, Langford should have no problem in providing value at that position. If he can build on his September and improve with a full year in the Majors under his belt, Langford could end up top-10 at the position.

Nathaniel Lowe - 1B, Texas Rangers

Season numbers: 16 HR, 69 RBI, 62 R, 2 SB, .265 AVG
September numbers: 5 HR, 20 RBI, 11 R, 0 SB, .310 AVG

Having played 475 games across the previous three seasons, the one thing Nathaniel Lowe was going to bring fantasy managers in 2024 was reliability. Even that was tested this year when Lowe suffered an oblique injury during spring. He ultimately missed 21 games, returning for the Rangers on April 19.

Lowe went on to play 140 games. A testament to his durability, although his bat took time to get going. By the end of June, Lowe was hitting .265/.349/.370 with four homers (63 games). A productive July (five homers and a .282/.408/.471 slash line) was followed by a dismal August.

After hitting .211/.292/.305 with two homers in the penultimate month of the season, fantasy managers had already moved on from Lowe. To reward anyone who stuck with him that long, Lowe went on to have his best month of the season in September and remind fantasy managers of his potential production.

The bullish sentiment for Lowe shouldn't just be because of his September. After a productive July, his August numbers appear to be a bit more of an outlier. What was most noticeable for Lowe in September was how hard he was hitting the ball. His HardHit% had a significant uptick.

Oblique issues can linger so it shouldn't have come as much of a surprise that the further removed Lowe was from the injury, the better he got. On the surface, Lowe's 2024 season looks eerily similar to 2023 and 2021. With his 27 homers and .302/.358/.492 slash line in 2022 looking like an anomaly.

However, if we look at Lowe's numbers from July 1 onwards, he hit .266/.371/.427 with 12 homers, 40 RBI, 35 runs, and no steals in 77 games. That's a 162-game pace of 25 homers, 84 RBI, 74 runs and no steals. These numbers are certainly worthy of drafting as your first baseman in 2025.

Given the injury to start the season and how much Lowe improved as the year wore on, his September should help alleviate concerns about taking Lowe in drafts next year. If you wait for a first baseman, nabbing Lowe in the later rounds makes a lot of sense.

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