RADIO
It's never too early to look ahead to next season, especially if the current fantasy campaign has been a profound disappointment. If you're floating at the bottom of the standings in a re-draft league, your odds of making a playoff push are slim at this point. Sure, you can play daily fantasy, but this is why I prefer keeper and dynasty formats over any other, because the season is never over, you can always look to make moves to set yourself up for next year.
One of the ways to put yourself in the best position to make a splash with a monster trade is to have a clear understanding of the current fantasy landscape. Taking stock of the changes at the top of next season's draft board right now can pay dividends in the future, especially in keeper or dynasty formats.
In the hitter department, we obviously have Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton as clear cut first round selections. Aside from Harper, whose ascension into the elite class of sluggers was just a matter of health and maturity, the rest of this group was taken in the first round back in the spring. It's hard to call Jose Abreu, Anthony Rizzo or Andrew McCutchen, who were also consensus first round selections, anything close to a bust either. They will all be 1st rounders, or close to it, next year.
The risks associated with drafting a pitcher in the first round often outweigh the reward. The margin for error is razor thin when you pull the trigger on a starting pitcher and pass up on an elite hitter. Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez (who both went in the first round, Kershaw as high as top-three overall in some cases this spring) are just the latest examples. Kershaw hasn't been "terrible" but considering that pitchers like Dallas Keuchel, Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole and Chris Archer (all of whom were selected outside the top 20 at the position) have outperformed him this season, it makes it is difficult to justify taking him that high.
This Week 11 edition of the RotoBaller Stock Watch takes a look at the hitters and pitchers whose stock has risen the most this season, ascending into the elite tier at their respective positions, whom all fantasy owners should be targeting in trade discussions.
Josh Donaldson 3B Toronto Jays
We can't predict the future. It's that simple. No matter what projection system we use, we seem to consistently fail to project which hitters and pitchers will be the most valuable in a given season. It should come as no surprise that both Goldschmidt and Harper rank as the most valuable fantasy commodities in the game this season, according to the ESPN Player Rater. However, just below them on the list is Josh Donaldson, who has served as the main catalyst for the top run-scoring offense in baseball. The Blue Jays have racked up 356 runs (5.56 per game) this season, which is 67 more runs than the Texas Rangers, who rank second in runs scored.
Donaldson is slashing an astounding .315/.369/.575 with 52 runs scored, 17 home runs, 45 RBI and three stolen bases this season. His power numbers are up across the board as evidenced by a career-high .260 isolated power (ISO) and .944 OPS. Aside from a solid uptick in hard contact (up from 34% last year to 40% in the current campaign), there isn't anything else that stands out with Donaldson's profile. He's an excellent hitter who is simply in the perfect situation right now. After three straight years of elite production, it's going to be next to impossible for the bouncers to keep Donaldson out of the first round next year.
Justin Upton OF San Diego Padres
It's not so much a recent surge in production, but a track record of consistent production that has vaulted Upton into the first round conversation going forward. He's squarely in his prime (27-years-old) and slated to hit free agency at the end of the year, which will impact his value no matter where he lands, but his contract-year performance .286/.366/.491 with 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases has been impressive. The steals renaissance has been the most encouraging factor for fantasy owners. He's already swiped more bases this season than any other, dating back to 2012 when he nabbed 18 with Arizona.
The contributions across five categories have Upton as the seventh-best player on ESPN's Player Rater this season. He's never going to be a superstar or win an MVP award, but Upton has evolved into one of the games most reliable sources of power in an age where that commodity is scarce, which makes him incredibly valuable.
Todd Frazier 1B/3B Cincinnati Reds
He's cranked at least 19 home runs in three straight seasons, including 29 last year, and has already smashed 20 this year before the calendar hits July. The elite power and speed combination Frazier provides is nearly unparalleled in fantasy baseball today for a corner infielder.
He currently ranks top-five in the senior circuit in runs scored (69), doubles (19), home runs (18), slugging percentage (.603) and OPS (.960). If you're looking for an outlier in his profile, you won't find one. Trust me, I tried. A gigantic spike in fly ball percentage (47% this season) up significantly from the 37% mark he posted a year ago may explain his power outburst, but there is nothing fluky about it. He's doing it all right now and after a few years of solid production, he's squarely in the elite category and will come off the board in the first round of all fantasy drafts next spring.
Sonny Gray SP Oakland Athletics
He won't be selected in the first round. If you want to make the case for either Kershaw or Max Scherzer (pitching in the NL East) you can, but the pitcher who has seen his stock rise more than nearly anyone else this season is Gray, who is 8-3 with a 1.60 ERA and 88 strikeouts over 95 and two thirds innings of work this year.
He's maintained a ground ball rate above 50% (which is elite for a starting pitcher) for three consecutive seasons and has allowed just four home runs this entire season. Opposing hitters are batting just .194 off him this year. If you're asking me to invest in a pitcher going forward in a keeper or dynasty league, the 25-years-old Gray is one of the safest investments in my book.
Gerrit Cole SP Pittsburgh Pirates
He good, as the kids say these days. Cole is striking out over a batter per inning (93 strikeouts in 84 innings of work) while posting 10 wins and a 1.71 ERA in 13 starts this year. Those absurd numbers combined with his age (24) mean that fantasy owners are going to pay a hefty price in re-draft leagues to acquire his services next spring.
Archer, Keuchel, David Price, Johnny Cueto, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Harvey and Chris Sale also belong in the elite tier of starting pitchers (with Kershaw and King Felix as well) but after them, it starts to get a bit murky. It's worth pointing out that just a few months ago, we wouldn't have even remotely imagined putting guys like Cole, Keuchel, Archer and Gray in this conversation. It's not too late to invest, but it's certainly going to cost a small fortune to get a deal done.
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