Dynasty Stock Watch for 2018 – Quarterbacks (Part 2)

Fantasy owners do not always build their dynasty league teams around quarterbacks like the NFL does, but that does not mean making a quarterback the cornerstone of your fantasy franchise is a bad idea.

Running backs are still arguably the most important position players in fantasy football, but quarterbacks rank a close second and gain ground every year as NFL offenses rely more on passing. Owners of dynasty fantasy leagues teams have to be cognizant of which quarterbacks are lining up to have superb seasons in the coming years and which might have tough sledding in 2018 and beyond.

Here are two more quarterbacks whose stock in dynasty leagues is rising, and two more quarterbacks whose dynasty stock is falling this offseason:

Dynasty Stock Rising

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

2017 Stats: 3,496 passing yards, 22 touchdown passes, 13 interceptions

Carr appeared to be on the verge of joining the league’s elite at the quarterback position after posting back-to-back 3,900-yard years and tossing 60 touchdown passes between 2015 and 2016, but his fantasy worth went down in 2017 thanks to Amari Cooper’s constant drops, an Oakland offense that lacked an identity, and Carr taking a step back instead of taking his game to the next level.

Carr has two new receivers to throw to in Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant, but more importantly has a new head coach running the offense and team in Monday Night maniac Jon Gruden. We have all seen that Gruden knows a lot about quarterbacks and loves teaching them how to be more effective. He could turn Carr into the top-five fantasy quarterback he was on his way to becoming before last season’s detour. Fantasy owners can expect Carr to rebound and will never have to worry about newly-acquired Christian Hackenberg stealing Carr’s starting spot.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

2017 Stats:  284 passing yards, zero touchdown passes, one interception

Mahomes was able to digest the NFL game from the sidelines for 99 percent of last season, learning from veteran signal caller Alex Smith and one of the top coaching staffs in the league that is chock full of offensive minds.

Mahomes has more talent surrounding him than Meghan Markle has royal subjects surrounding her. Mahomes has arguably the second-best tight end in the NFL in Travis Kelce as his go-to guy, greyhounds Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins as his wide receivers, and 2017 rushing champion Kareem Hunt in the backfield. Oh, and he has Andy Reid and his staff coaching him, and all they did was help guide Smith to the best year of his career in 2017. The fantasy value meter will be rising from this point on for this ultra-talented youngster.

Dynasty Stock Falling

Alex Smith, Washington Redskins

2017 Stats:  4,042 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes, five interceptions

Smith saved the best year of his 12-year career for 2017, setting a personal best with 26 touchdown tosses and posting his first 4,000-yard season as a passer. Kansas City offensive guru Andy Reid got the most out of Smith any coach ever has, and having the aforementioned Kelce and Hill as his top two targets certainly helped as well, but…

…now Smith is Washington’s starting signal caller. Is Smith going to be able to duplicate his sterling 2018 season with the below-average receiving crew he is stuck with in Redskinsville?  Jamison Crowder is a nice receiver, but not a number one WR. Josh Doctson and tight end Jordan Reed are perpetually injured. Offseason signee Paul Richardson has a ways to go before becoming a 1,000-yard pass catcher, and third-down dynamo Chris Thompson is coming off a broken leg. Smith will be hard-pressed to deliver another season to fantasy owners like he did last year.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

2017 Stats:  3,983 passing yards, 34 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions

Wilson will have to be a LeBron James-like one-man team for the Seahawks to have any hope of being a playoff contender in 2018 as his team is in rebuilding mode and has allowed many of its biggest stars to sign with other teams, including tight end Jimmy Graham and emerging receiver Paul Richardson. Inking veterans Brandon Marshall and Ed Dickson to deals to fill these gaps in Wilson’s receiving corps is not enough help, especially since the Seahawks have failed to upgrade their running game this offseason.

Wilson can do a lot with a little due to his scrambling skills and his ability to throw on the run, but does he have enough David Copperfield in him to throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns with the worst supporting cast he has ever played with? Probably not, sadly. Look for his TD-to-INT ratio to suffer and for him to be wildly inconsistent from week-to-week due to the lack of talent flanking him.

More 2018 Dynasty League Strategy