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The UFC returns to its APEX facility this weekend in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a heavyweight rematch between top 10 heavyweights Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac. The UFC returns to Las Vegas after a pair of international stops in Manchester and Abu Dhabi, and it will do so with a lineup that doesn't look that great on paper. Due to several fight cancellations, Saturday's UFC Vegas 95 only features ten matchups, including the main event.
The co-main event features Damon Jackson and Chepe Mariscal, two veterans looking to put their names in the rankings. The main card also has Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov, Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler and Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 95: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 on 8/10/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Marcin Tybura, $7900 - vs. Serghei Spivac
The rematch between Marcin Tybura and Serghey Spivac has been scheduled for the UFC Vegas 95 main event on August 10 at UFC Apex. The pair first met in February 2020 at UFC Fight Night 169 in Norfolk, Virginia, where Tybura took the victory by unanimous decision, snapping a two-fight losing streak. Tybura enters this fight with a UFC record of 12 wins and seven losses, while Spivak enters this fight with a UFC record of seven wins and four losses.
He's headlining #UFCVegas95 this Saturday!
Watch some of @MarcinTybura's best finishes before he gets back in the Octagon this weekend! 💥 pic.twitter.com/MLuLew9qMP
— UFC (@ufc) August 9, 2024
Spivac is coming off a knockout loss to former title challenger Ciryl Gane, who snapped Spivac's three-fight winning streak that had put Spivac close to a title shot. Spivac's three-fight winning streak included finishes over Greg Hardy, Augusto Sakai, and Derrick Lewis. Known for his power and grappling, Spivac has secured 7 wins by knockout and 7 by submission.
Just like Spivac, Tybura is a solid grappler who is coming off a big submission win over Tai Tuivasa in his last fight. Tybura is 7-2 since his fight with Spivac. His only losses are to Alexander Volkov and current interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall. Tybura has defeated several top-tier opponents in the UFC, including Andrei Arlovski and Ben Rothwell. He's known for his durability, cardio, and ability to control opponents with his grappling.
Tybura dominated Spivac in their first bout. Spivac had some success in the first round but couldn’t stop Tybura's takedowns. Tybura was also able to land shots against the fence or when they were on the canvas. Interestingly enough, Spivac is the slight favorite here, despite being outclassed by Tybura in their first bout. Probably because Tybura is 38 years old and almost a decade older than Spivac.
It would be best for Tybura to shoot for takedowns. If he doesn't manage to take him down, he'll have to strike with Spivac, and Spivac is dangerous standing up. I just think that this fight is going to be more or less like the first fight they had. Tybura has decent striking defense, 55%, to be exact. On paper, Spivac has Tybura beat in the grappling stats. Spivac has 64% takedown accuracy compared to Tybura, who has 33%. That being said, Tybura has 79% takedown defense. I don't think Spivac will be able to take him down and hold him there for long. In my opinion, his best chance is to try and knock out Tybura. I just think Tybura will again be too much for Spivac. In my opinion, Tybura is better all-around and just has more tools in his arsenal. My prediction is that Tybura wins this fight via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Karol Rosa, $8,600 - vs, Pannie Kianzad
The featured spot on the prelims goes to one of the more interesting contests on the entire show, as Karol Rosa takes on Pannie Kianzad. Rosa has alternated wins and losses since 2021 and lost a competitive fight to Irene Aldana in her last bout. On the other hand, Kianzad is on a two-fight losing streak, having lost to Ketlen Vieira and Macy Chiasson. Rosa enters this bout with a pro record of 17 wins and six losses, while Kianzad enters this bout with a record of 16 wins and eight losses.
Rosa began her UFC career with four straight wins but is just 2-3 in five fights since. Both Rosa and Kianzad are known for their volume, although Rosa has a better output than Kianzad. Each of her seven wins with the company has come via decision, with two being split decision victories and one being a majority decision win. Although Rosa suffered the loss in her last fight against Aldana, her stock arguably went up in what was a “Fight of the Year” contender.
Her opponent, Kianzad, is a high-level boxer who has fought some of the best fighters in the division. She joined the UFC in 2018 and she has been a solid fighter at bantamweight since then. Kianzad won four in a row from November 2019 to June 2021, but she hasn't been in the best form as of late. She is on a two-fight losing skid and is 1-3 in her last four. Compared to Rosa, Kianzad is better defensively and will be looking to counter Rosa’s aggressive style.
I'm picking Rosa to win this fight. She is better than Kianzad when it comes to wrestling and grappling. That being said, there will likely be some groundwork, but I'm convinced most of the fight will be a striking battle. Neither woman has the power to put the other one down, so you can expect this fight to go to the judges' scorecards. I think Rosa wins this via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Karl Williams, $9000 - vs. Jhonata Diniz
Jhonata Diniz and Karl Williams are scheduled to fight at the UFC Vegas 95 event. Both heavyweights are set to compete on the undercard. Diniz made his UFC debut on the main card of UFC Vegas 91 in his last fight, where he knocked out Austen Lane in the second round. Williams has won seven straight fights while winning all three of his fights inside the Octagon.
Just like Diniz, Williams fought in the Contender Series. He has earned his UFC contract by defeating Jimmy Lawson via unanimous decision. Since then, he has been on a roll. Known for his wrestling, Williams has won his first three UFC fights against Justin Tafa, Chase Sherman and Lukasz Brzeski by unanimous decision. Now, Williams will be looking to extend his winning streak to eight in a row when he takes on Diniz this weekend.
Diniz lands 48% of the significant strikes he throws, and Williams connects on 52%. He also stops 45% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way, while Williams is able to stop 60% of the strikes thrown his way. Diniz is a high-level kickboxer who won numerous championships during his time as a kickboxer, but he's still new when it comes to his MMA game. He will have opportunities to knock out Williams, but that is likely his only path to winning this fight.
Diniz certainly will have the advantage on the feet, while Williams will have a big advantage on the mat. He showed that his takedown defense isn’t entirely there yet, and Williams possesses a smothering wrestling game. He will be, without a doubt, the best wrestler Diniz has ever faced. His takedown accuracy is 50%, and he gets 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. Seeing how bad Diniz's takedown defense was against Lane, I'm convinced Williams is going to hold Diniz down for 15 minutes en route to the win.
