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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya on 08/17/24. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
While last week's card wasn't anything to remember fondly, the UFC is back with a much better card this time around. UFC 305 goes down this Saturday from inside RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. The event will mark the promotion's third visit to Perth and first since UFC 284 in February 2023, as well as the beginning of a deal for twice-annual events in the city.
In the main event, we have Dricus Du Plessis set for his first title defense against Israel Adesanya, who is trying to become the first three-time middleweight champion. To say there is no love lost between these two is putting it lightly, with the duo being on a collision course for some time now. Other interesting matchups on the UFC 305 main card include the top 10 flyweights bout between Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg and a lightweight bout featuring Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya on 8/17/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Israel Adesanya, $8,300 - vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Israel Adesanya will look to become a three-time middleweight world champion this weekend when he challenges current middleweight king Dricus Du Plessis in the main event of UFC 305. Adesanya has not stepped into the Octagon since he dropped the title to Sean Strickland in a one-sided unanimous decision loss last September at UFC 293.
Strickland then lost the belt in an extremely close fight to Du Plessis this past January. Adesanya and Du Plessis were expected to headline UFC 293 but Du Plessis was unable to commit to the fight due to nagging injuries.
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It's no secret that Du Plessis has big power in his hands, and despite never looking comfortable inside the Octagon, Du Plessis is deceptively technical, having nine knockouts or TKOs on his record.
He is extremely well-rounded, with 10 submission wins to his name, most notably a 2022 rear-naked choke against former welterweight title challenger Darren Till. His gas tank has been an issue in the past, but since his nasal surgery, it appears to have gotten better.
Former UFC middleweight champion Adesanya is known for stand-up ability and is easily one of the greatest strikers in MMA history. His 12-fight UFC middleweight winning streak is one shy of Anderson Silva’s UFC record 13-fight middleweight winning streak. He has defeated fighters such as Paulo Costa, Jared Cannonier, Derek Brunson, Yoel Romero, Alex Pereira, and Robert Whittaker, twice.
Du Plessis lands 6.49 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 50%, while Adesanya lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 48%. DDP averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 51%. His takedown defense is at 40% while Adesanya's takedown defense is at 77%.
Adesanya needs to bring out that dog in him and he needs to pressure Du Plessis, not just wait for a counter like he did with Strickland. He needs to be initiating exchanges more often like he did when he was a challenger and at the beginning of his title reign.
We have seen the ferociousness that Adesanya brings into the Octagon when he is the challenger, and the bad blood will only fuel his desire to knock Du Plessis out. Adesanya's performance against Strickland was highly concerning, no doubt about it, but I just think the time he has off is going to be beneficial for his performance against DDP.
I think Adesanya finds a way to knock Du Plessis out.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mateusz Gamrot, $9,300 - vs. Dan Hooker
The third fight on the main card at UFC 305 will see Mateusz Gamrot take on Dan Hooker. This is a big opportunity for both fighters. For Hooker, who is on a two-fighting winning streak, to jump into the lightweight top five, and for Gamrot, to reaffirm his place among the lightweight elite.
Gamrot enters the fight with three straight wins and victories in seven of his past eight. His two losses came against Guram Kutateladze in 2020 and Beneil Dariush in 2022.
The former KSW champion competed earlier this year, picking up a decision win over former champion Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 299 in March. Gamrot comes into this fight with an MMA record of 24-2 and he is 7-2 in the UFC.
His opponent, Hooker, returns to action for the first time in over a year, 13 months to be exact, looking to extend his win streak to three. In his most recent appearance, Hooker battled back to earn a gritty split decision victory over Jalin Turner at UFC 290 in July 2023.
He is 23-12 as a professional and 13-8 in the UFC. Since signing with the UFC in 2014, Hooker had some ups and downs. He's on a two-fight winning streak, but he struggled against the lightweight elite.
Known as a striker and a brawler, Hooker lands 5.08 significant strikes and absorbs 4.76 significant strikes per minute. He has a takedown accuracy of 34% and a takedown defense of 80%.
Gamrot, on the other hand, is famous for his relentless pressure and wrestling ability. His takedown accuracy is 35% and his takedown defense is 90%. He is averaging 3.09 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%.
It's unlikely Gamrot is going to want to stand and trade where Hooker is going to be his most effective. Gamrot's takedowns will most likely be the deciding factor here. Hooker's takedown defense isn't bad, but Gamrot is just so relentless that he'll eventually get Hooker to the ground.
I don't think that he'll be able to finish Hooker, so I'm going with the favorite, Gamrot, to win this fight via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jairzinho Rozenstruik, $8,900 - vs. Tai Tuivasa
Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik are scheduled for a heavyweight showdown on the main card of UFC 305 this Saturday. Tuivasa is looking to get his career back on track by snapping a four-fight losing streak while Rozenstruik, who is coming off a crucial win, is determined to start his first winning streak in years.
Both fighters are in desperate need of a victory, although Tuivasa needs this win more than Rozenstruik. You can expect this to be a stand-up war while it lasts.
Tuivasa is on a four-fight losing skid, but the losses have come against the absolute best that the UFC has to offer: Ciryl Gane, Sergei Pavlovich, Alexander Volkov, and most recently, Marcin Tybura. His last 10 fights haven’t made it to the judges’ scorecards, and he’s 5-5-0 in those contests.
Tuivasa often throws technique out the window in favor of getting into a street-fight-like exchange, and it has cost him fights on a few occasions.
His opponent, Rozenstruik, is 2-3 in his past five fights. Those losses came at the hands of top heavyweights Jailton Almeida, Volkov, and Curtis Blaydes. He did manage to defeat Chris Daukaus via knockout, and most recently, Shamil Gaziev in the main event of UFC Vegas 87.
With Rozenstruik being a well-known kickboxer having 13 finishes from 14 wins, he is likely going to be searching for a knockout.
Tuivasa comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15 wins and seven losses and he is 8-7 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.96 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He’s never attempted a takedown in UFC and his striking defense is at 43%.
Just like Tuivasa, Rozenstruik's takedown game is nonexistent, as he’s averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 0% success rate. His takedown defense is at 75%. Rozenstruik is landing 3.44 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.78 strikes per minute.
Tuivasa is technically a striker, but he’s not disciplined or polished enough and his wins in the UFC are against guys who aren’t good or who are past their prime. Both Rozenstruik and Tuivasa are knockout artists, as both have won 13 out of their 14 bouts via knockout or TKO.
The difference between the two is that Tuivasa has been knocked out twice in his four most recent fights. Rozenstruik is a more technical striker and much better conditioned to fight for three rounds, if necessary. I predict that Rozenstruik is going to knock Tuivasa out within two rounds.
