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A day I've been dreading is finally here - the last full slate Tuesday of the baseball season. The 15 games we're blessed with on 7:05 Tuesday nights are my favorite hello, and they're going to be my hardest goodbye. Luckily for us, these contests looks pretty attractive - a healthy number of top tier pitchers, good hitter's parks and a number of teams vying for playoff spots - and that's not always guaranteed at this time of the year.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 9/26/17. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @kpLUCH and be sure to follow @RotoBallerMLB for year-round fantasy baseball news, articles, and advice.
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Vegas Odds
Before my player selection and analysis, let's see what we can learn from what Vegas is seeing as of Tuesday morning. I like to use five as my benchmark for what looks attractive from a team run total perspective, and we have a healthy number above that benchmark tonight - Rockies (6.4), Royals (5.7), Indians (5.7), Brewers (5.6), Diamondbacks (5.4), Marlins (5.2), Nationals (5.1), and Astros (5.1). Those are good places to start your stack research and good teams to avoid when choosing your cash game pitcher. In terms of favorites, we have four teams that are all -200 or greater on the moneyline, which is no small number - Dodgers (-230), Red Sox (-225), Diamondbacks (-205), and the Indians (-200).
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider
Alex Wood - SP, SDP vs LAD (DK - $9,700, FD - $9,400)
It appears that Wood's bump(s) in the road are behind him finally, as he's put together a good and great start over his last two. The velocity is still down a tick, but the positives are that he's pounding the strike zone at a higher rate and limiting the hard contact even more so than he usually does (just 22% last two starts). He brings real strong season-long stats into this one - 1.0 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9 and a 9.4 K/9 - and facing the Padres in his home park should help him finish strong. The Dodgers are currently the biggest favorite of the night and the Padres have the lowest implied run total at just 3.0. Seeing as San Diego's projected lineup owns nearly a 29% strikeout rate against southpaws, Wood is squarely in play for cash games and tournaments.
Chris Sale - SP, TOR vs BOS (DK - $13,400, FD - $11,800)
Sale erased any fears that he had a tired arm when he struck out 13 Orioles on the road last week and actually increased his velocity by a few mile per hour. Tonight, he gets a date with this Toronto squad he dominated a few short weeks ago to the tune of 11 strikeouts and no runs on three hits. It's a steep price to pay on both sites, and I do think you can get away with using Wood in cash. My interest, despite the price, is in tournaments. Sale along with your favorite stack and a contrarian stack is a nice recipe for success in large field tournaments. Anyway, back to this matchup, it's obviously not perfect as the Blue Jays have middle of the order hitters to fear, but they also represent strikeout upside - the projected lineup owns a 26.4% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Vegas is on the Sale side here as well, with the Red Sox being the second biggest moneyline favorite of the night and Toronto's run projection being a paltry 3.2.
Also Consider: Dinelson Lamet - SP, SDP @ LAD (DK - $7,200, FD - $8,200) - Tournaments Only
DFS Infielders to Consider
Chris Iannetta - C, SFG vs ARI (DK - $3,900, FD - $2,700)
With the expensive pitching options worth paying up for, I'll try to hit you with as many value plays as I can today. I'll start with one of my favorites in Iannetta. He has great team and lineup context, not to mention playing in one of the best hitter's ballparks in the bigs. He brings an incredibly high floor to the table with his .398 wOBA split and the power upside is there too with his .231 ISO against southpaws. In the past 15 days, his Statcast data shows us his hard hit rate remains impressive ~35% and the ground ball rate dropping as the line drive and fly ball rates increase is certainly encouraging.
Tournament Pivot - Gary Sanchez - C, TBR vs NYY (DK - 4,900, FD - $3,500)
Ryan Zimmerman - 1B, WAS @ PHI (DK - $4,500, FD - $3,500)
Zimmerman comes at a modest price tonight and gets a major park upgrade and a date with Phillies' young hurler Jake Thompson. Besides the aforementioned, I really like Zimmerman and his splits (.378 wOBA, .249 ISO) against a pitcher who has been terrible against right-handed batters this season, allowing a .412 wOBA and .592 slugging in 24+ innings of work.
Tournament Pivot - Matt Carpenter - CHC vs STL (DK - $4,400, FD - $4,000)
Neil Walker - 2B, CIN vs MIL (DK - $4,300, FD - $3,300)
Walker is in a pretty juicy spot here. He's a in a great hitter's park with good hitting conditions facing a 28 year old rookie. He possesses great splits against right-handed pitching and delivers more pop when he's hitting on the left side of the plate - .329 wOBA and a .206 ISO. His Statcast data is another reason to be excited about his potential tonight, as he's clubbing the ball over the last 15 days with a 45% hard hit rate and a 40% line drive rate.
Also Consider: Daniel Murphy - 2B, WAS @ PHI (DK - $4,700, FD - $3,400)
Alex Bregman - 3B, HOU @ TEX (DK - $4,200, FD - $3,700)
Bregman is swinging a hot stick now and finally settling in at the plate. He's crushed value in three straight and there's reason to be optimistic this continues tonight. He's facing Cole Hamels, who could scare away some would-be Bregman owners, but those chasing big upside would be wise to roster him. Hamels has allowed over a .220 ISO over his last three starts and Bregman has been hitting the ball hard (42% HH last 15) at the right angles (42% fly ball rate).
Also Consider: Travis Shaw - 3B, CIN vs MIL (DK - $5,200, FD - $3,400)
Carlos Correa - SS, HOU @ TEX (DK - $4,500, FD - $3,400)
Going back to the Houston well here. The team is hot and projected for over five runs tonight, not to mention the recent ISO allowed by Hamels that I tossed in the Bregman write-up. There are actually a number of shortstops in good situations tonight, but none are all that affordable. Correa isn't cheap, but I feel he offers a similar floor and upside as the rest of the group at roughly a $500-1,000 savings. For the past 12 months, he's put up a .409 wOBA and .213 ISO against southpaws and in the last 15 days, his hard hit percentage is 34 with an average batted ball distance of 223 feet.
Tournament Pivot - Paul DeJong - SS, CHC vs STL (DK - $3,900, FD - $3,000)
DFS Outfielders to Consider
J.D. Martinez - OF, SFG vs ARI (DK - $5,400, FD - $4,900)
The destroyer of southpaw worlds is still tearing it up as we're hitting the home stretch. The September this guy has had is nothing short of remarkable and the matchup is such that he's set up to continue success tonight. In the past 12 months, Martinez owns a .530 wOBA and .500 ISO split, which is hard to believe. For the past 15 days, his hard hit percentage is above 50%, as is his fly ball rate.
Jay Bruce - OF, MIN vs CLE (DK - $4,100, FD - $2,900)
Bruce is a huge discount on FanDuel and not a bad price to pay at all for the upside on DraftKings. He's gone a little cold production wise, but the hard hit rate is respectable and the fly ball and line drive rates are steady at 44% and 22%, respectively. The .381 wOBA split creates a pretty safe floor and the .295 ISO represents big upside.
Also Consider: Mike Trout - OF, LAA @ CWS (DK - $5,300, FD - $4,400)
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