RADIO
Jarod Rupp dives into walk rate and chase rate metrics for hitters between 2022 and 2023 to see who improved the most -- both in absolute and relative terms -- to see if it's repeatable in 2024.
In this article, we'll look at players' BB% from 2022 to 2023 to see who had the biggest increases. For this exercise, I first took out any hitter who did not collect at least 400 PA in 2023. Next, I eliminated anyone who did not rise to at least above league average BB% (8.6%). Finally, we want to review what the player's chase rate (O-Swing%) was because if they are chasing balls outside the zone too much, then they don't truly have a good eye at the plate, so the improved BB% may be a fluke. We want to see 28% or better O-Swing%.
At the end of the day, in most leagues you probably are still not drafting Andrew McCutchen or LaMonte Wade Jr., but if you play in an OBP league, then perhaps you should bump some or all of these guys up your boards quite a bit.
Finally, remember that even if you don't play in an OBP league, getting on base is going to afford a player more opportunities to steal bases and score runs, so don't underrate a high BB%.
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Biggest Year-Over-Year BB% Risers
Below are the players that increased their BB% by the most year-over-year from 2022 to 2023. I provided you with the absolute change ("Abs Chg") as well as the relative change ("Rel Chg"). Any players that overlapped both lists I highlighted in bold.
A couple more things to note:
- YoY = Year-over-Year
- Each player has their absolute and relative change listed; i.e. Player A, +absolute (relative)
- ADP referenced is for standard non-auction drafts
Also, in the below table are the league averages for your reference. These are the stats I outlined below for each player we're going to cover, and we're not going to cover everyone (you don't need me to tell you how good Mookie Betts or Shohei Ohtani are at getting on base).
Luis Rengifo, +5.9% (179%)
- O-Swing%: 32.2%
- BB/K: 0.50
- K%: 18.4%
- OBP ('23): .339
- wOBA ('23): .339
- wRC+ ('23): 114
- ADP: 257
Based on what we stated in the opening, Rengifo's O-Swing% of 32.2% may be an indication that the BB% may not stick; however, his O-Swing% was dramatically improved by 7.7% YoY, which is an encouraging sign. His BB/K and K% are both better than league average, while overall OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ are all considered "above average." Despite lowering O-Swing% and increasing BB%, Rengifo's K% went up by about 3%, which is not something we want to see.
My estimation is that his BB% will regress a bit (ATC projections peg it at 7.1%), but he's projected to hit leadoff for the Halos in 2024, which could boost his counting stats YoY. He could be a sneaky source of power (16 last year, ATC projects for 18 in '24).
Back to back! Luis Rengifo follows up with a home run of his own pic.twitter.com/MEwIcaW8xh
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) March 29, 2023
Brandon Marsh, +6.4% (105%)
- O-Swing%: 28.2%
- BB/K: 0.41
- K%: 30.5%
- OBP ('23): .372
- wOBA ('23): .358
- wRC+ ('23): 125
- ADP: 380
Marsh is basically at our O-Swing% threshold of 28%, and his OBP/wOBA numbers are well above average, but a couple other stats are concerning. A K% of 30.5% is way too high for someone who isn't going to give you a ton of HRs, and he's projected to bat eighth while in a platoon (per RosterResource), so a full complement of at-bats isn't likely in the cards. He also just had knee surgery, although he says he expects to be ready for the start of the season.
He's a former second-round pick, and while the K% is high, it has improved in two consecutive years now (down from 35% in 2021), so perhaps he's getting more comfortable with major league pitching. Still, you'll likely need an injury to force him into a full-time role and become fantasy relevant. For what it's worth, ATC projections have him with 13 SB, so he could be a sneaky source of steals if he can continue to get on base at a decent clip.
Nate Lowe, +5.4% (73%)
- O-Swing%: 26.0%
- BB/K: 0.56
- K%: 22.8%
- OBP ('23): .360
- wOBA ('23): .340
- wRC+ ('23): 114
- ADP: 200
Lowe's O-Swing is where you want to see it to believe in the BB%. Not only that, it's back to where it was in 2021 when he had an O-Swing of 26.9%. It seems 2022 was the outlier season, when he had an O-Swing of 34.9% and the BB% dipped to just 7.4%. It looks like he was selling out for power in 2022, as his HR totals were 18 in 2021, 27 in 2022, and back down to 17 in 2023.
His Contact% of 82% and SwStr% of just 7.9% in 2023 were well above average as well, so assuming he keeps the same approach in 2024, it's reasonable to expect Lowe to put up similar numbers to his 2023 stat line. ATC projections have him with a .354 OBP and .343 wOBA in the upcoming season.
Ian Happ, +5.3% (59%)
- O-Swing%: 26.8%
- BB/K: 0.65
- K%: 22.1%
- OBP ('23): .360
- wOBA ('23): .345
- wRC+ ('23): 118
- ADP: 154
As with Lowe, Happ's 26.8% O-Swing% is where we want to see it. Also, his career O-Swing% is 28.1%, so last year's 30.7% was a bit out of the norm and seems to have contributed to his deflated BB% of 9.0% (although that was still above league average).
Happ's ADP is almost 50 spots higher than Lowe's, however, because he can steal a few more bases (14 in 2023) and projects to hit third in the order (Lowe projects to hit sixth). Happ's OBP and wOBA projections are a tad lower than Lowe's though, with a .347 OBP and .337 wOBA.
On @BernsyHolmes, #Cubs LF Ian Happ explained his 'confidence' stealing bases and how MLB's new rules allow him to make this an asset in his game. https://t.co/klyRWk936l pic.twitter.com/MRwvuU60tO
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) April 11, 2023
Gleyber Torres, +3.1% (47%)
- O-Swing%: 29.5%
- BB/K: 0.68
- K%: 14.6%
- OBP ('23): .347
- wOBA ('23): .346
- wRC+ ('23): 123
- ADP: 90
Does it feel like Torres is on the precipice of a breakout season... again? 2019 was of course his breakout, but that seems like forever ago. In 2023, he raised his wOBA for the second straight season, from .307 in 2021 to .346 in 2023. His O-Swing%, while technically above our 28% threshold, was improved from 31.5% in 2022. The two seasons prior, it was 27.5% (2021) and 25.6% (2020), posting a BB% of 9.7% and 13.8% those years. What's more is that in 2023, he reduced his K% to a career-low (14.6%) and Contact% to a career-high (80.8%).
Torres' overall 2023 numbers looked much better when compared to the past few years, but -- as you can see above -- it was his strong second half that propelled him. We'll see if he can carry that momentum into 2024 and snag his first All-Star selection since 2019. ATC projections have him with a 9.2% BB%, .338 OBP, and .341 wOBA. Torres could be a somewhat under-the-radar source of HR, as he hit 24 in 2018 and 2022, 25 in 2023, and as many as 38 back in 2019. He projects to hit fifth in a much-improved Yankees lineup in 2024.
LaMonte Wade Jr., +4.3% (40%)
- O-Swing: 20.7%
- BB/K: 0.80
- K%: 18.3%
- OBP ('23): .373
- wOBA ('23): .347
- wRC+ ('23): 122
- ADP: 485
Now, here's one for you OBPers...Wade doesn't chase, he's got the lowest O-Swing% of all players we've talked about here, and he has the highest BB/K and OBP of all of them, too. Last season was the first time he logged more than 400 PA, but even still, his BB% and K% have never been worse than league average. Not only that, his Contact% has never been lower than 80% and his career SwStr% is 7.6%.
His ATC projections have him with 17 HRs in the upcoming season, but with a career Barrel% of 9.0%, there's 20 HR upside if he can log a few more ABs (projected for 424) out of the SF three-hole while providing solid OBP numbers.
T-7th:
LaMonte Wade Jr, April 29 @ SD (Mexico City)
Pitcher: Joe Musgrove
474 feet pic.twitter.com/TkjSSs49tn https://t.co/stxxXAQvTq— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) November 6, 2023
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