MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (3/27/2026)

March 27, 2026

Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (3/27/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Ronald Acuna, Vladimir Guerrero, and Julio Rodriguez.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! After an awesome Opening Day, baseball feels so back. On the first full day of baseball, 28 different players hit a home run to deliver big wins on their home run props. I'm excited to jump back into home run props this season, trying to identify which players have the best chance at going yard. Not much feels better than when the player you picked to hit a home run deposits one over the wall to deliver the win, so let's jump back into the numbers and pick out a few home run props that make sense for this Friday.

The first week of the season is always one of the hardest to navigate since the recent data is uncertain. Many pitchers and hitters change their approaches, and spring training numbers and last year's data aren't quite as relevant as recent form numbers we'll have deeper in the year. As we have more relevant numbers, it will be easier to focus on our top targets and top matchups to attack. In this post, we'll look at my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate, as well as a longshot bet. One of the best ways to play home run props is to play them in a round-robin format at a small unit size. That strategy sets up bigger wins if more than one or these players goes yard.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, March 27, 2026. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (3/27/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, March 27:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 BetMGM)

As they look to defend their American League crown after last year's magical run to the World Series, the Blue Jays are counting on another big year from Guerrero in the middle of their lineup. They'll open their season at home at the Rogers Centre on Friday night against the Athletics, taking on Luis Severino.

Severino and Guerrero both played for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, where Guerrero went 8-for-18 (.444) with a pair of home runs.

A #WORLDBASEBALLCLASSIC PLAKATA FOR VLADDY! 😤 pic.twitter.com/cM0kA90bog

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 12, 2026

Guerrero hit 23 homers during the regular season last year and swatted eight more dingers in his 18 postseason games. Seventeen of his 23 homers came off right-handed pitchers, and just over half (12) came at home. His bat speed ranked in the top three percent of qualified hitters last season, and his hard-hit rate, xSLG, and xwOBA were all in the top 10% of the league.

In his career against Severino, Vladdy is 5-for-14 with a home run. Severino looked sharp this spring and in the WBC, but last year he posted a 4.54 ERA and 4.11 FIP, allowing 16 homers in 29 starts. Most of his troubles were at home when pitching in Sacramento, where he lost to the Blue Jays in his only outing against them in the last three seasons.

In what should be a great opener in Toronto, look for their biggest bat to get off to a fast start.

Ronald Acuna Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 BetMGM)

Acuna and the Braves are also opening their season at home on Friday night, but they're hoping for a very different outcome than last year. The Braves were beset by injury and fell out of contention quickly, but this year, they seem relatively healthy as they open the year.

Like Guerrero, Acuna starred in the WBC, hitting a pair of home runs for Venezuela on their way to their first-ever World Baseball Classic Championship. Acuna led the team with 10 runs scored and hit .269 (7-for-26) with 10 walks. Acuna homered in one of the Braves' spring training contests in addition to his two in WBC play.

RONALD ACUÑA JR. LEAVES THE YARD

WHAT A START FOR TEAM VENEZUELA 😳 pic.twitter.com/QJ1v2nq7dN

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 15, 2026

Acuna didn't make his season debut last year until late May while recovering from a knee injury, but he hit 21 homers in his 95 games. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate were both in the top 10% of qualified hitters, and he finished with an impressive .290/.417/.518 triple-slash. He also had a .403 wOBA and .228 ISO, showing plenty of power potential after his full recovery.

Atlanta will have some of the best home run weather on the board this Friday night, with the wind blowing out at Truist Park and temperatures in the upper 70s. The only downside for Acuna's environment is that he will have to face Royals lefty Cole Ragans, who is looking to bounce back from a down year.

Ragans was hurt most of last season and only made 13 starts. He allowed seven homers (all to righties) and a 4.67 ERA. He allowed 1.02 HR/9 after giving up 0.72 HR/9 and 0.66 HR/9 in his previous two seasons. He'll be looking for a bounce-back season, but he struggled this spring with a 7.31 ERA and a pair of home runs allowed in 16 innings.

The matchup against Ragans isn't ideal, but Acuna loves the big stage and seems fully healthy and ready to help the Braves erase last year's frustration. Look for him to get off to a fast start with a big blast on Friday.

Jeremy Pena OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+481 DraftKings)

The Astros lost to their division rivals from Anaheim 3-0 on Opening Day, but they'll look to get the bats going against Yusei Kikuchi on Friday night at Daikin Park. The indoor environment takes any weather issues out of the picture, which can be helpful early in the season when cold temperatures can dampen home runs.

Kikuchi gave up more runs than any other pitcher on the slate this Friday, serving up 24 homers in 33 starts on his way to a 3.99 ERA and 4.23 FIP. His average exit velocity allowed was in the bottom 7% of qualified pitchers, and he allowed a 42.2% hard-hit rate. The lefty gave up 23 of his 24 homers allowed to right-handed hitters, who had a .445 slugging percentage and .336 wOBA against him.

Pena is one of the righties he'll likely face on Friday after the Astros shortstop made a quick recovery from a fractured finger suffered while playing for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. Pena wasn't in the Opening Day lineup for the Astros, but he wasn't placed on the IL, which indicates he should be good to go very soon.

In his first exhibition action, he went yard against the Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys and looked sharp:

Jeremy Peña with a MOONSHOT onto the train tracks 🤯 pic.twitter.com/hRI9XFKxVp

— MLB (@MLB) March 25, 2026

Last year, Pena was locked in at the top of the Astros lineup when healthy and hit a career-high .304 with 17 homers, a .477 SLG, and a .363 wOBA. He hit .351 with 10 of his 17 homers at home, and he's 4-for-12 with a homer and a pair of doubles in his past matchups with Kikuchi.

Pena is my top play if he's in the lineup, but if he isn't quite ready for his season debut, Christian Walker (+437) or Jose Altuve (+465) can be solid pivot options to attack the same splits from Kikuchi.

Julio Rodriguez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+540 FanDuel)

Rodriguez played with Guerrero in the WBC, going just 3-for-17 but adding a home run for the dynamic Dominican Republic. Rodriguez is known for getting off to a slow start to the season, but maybe the extra excitement in spring training can help get him off to a stronger start in 2026.

He went 9-for-21 (.429) in his limited Cactus League action and added another home run as well.

SEA - Julio Rodríguez 2-run HR (1)
🌴 Spring Training 🌴

📏 431 ft | 💨 107.9 mph | 📐 35°
⚾️ 89.5 mph four-seam fastball (CLE - LHP Logan Allen)
🏟️ Out in 30/30 MLB parks

SEA (17) @ CLE (4)
🔺 4th#SeizeTheMoment #TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/LyHo2nUkQw

— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) March 21, 2026

On Thursday, the ball was flying out of T-Mobile Park with six homers leaving the yard. Unfortunately for Julio, he didn't get in on the action, though, starting the season 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. He should be in a good spot to bounce back on Friday night, though, as he goes against Gavin Williams of the Guardians.

Williams had the second-highest HR/9 of all the starting pitchers on the board this Friday and the highest HR/FB ratio. The righty pitched to a 3.06 ERA in his 31 starts, but his 4.39 FIP and 44.3% hard-hit rate could indicate he's due for some regression. He allowed 23 homers, and eight of those were to right-handed hitters on the road, who had a .560 SLG against him in that split.

Rodriguez tied his career-high with 32 homers last year and ranked in the top 4% of qualified hitters in bat speed. Of his 32 homers, 22 came against righties, and he did have 10 homers in the first two months of the season. Rodriguez

He is 3-for-6 with a double in his past meetings with Williams, and he seems set to bounce back on Friday night.

Longshot: Heriberto Hernandez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+604 Novig)

The Marlins and Rockies are also just starting their season after not playing as part of Thursday's festivities. The Rockies will give the ball to lefty Kyle Freeland in the opener, which sets up well for Hernandez as a long shot play since he made the team to provide some pop against left-handed pitching.

Hernandez showed some pop last season, with 10 homers in his 87 MLB games after hitting nine homers in 41 games in Triple-A for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. Four of those 10 home runs came against lefties, against whom he had a .341 wOBA and .435 SLG. This spring, the righty had three homers in 33 at-bats.

Heriberto Hernandez - Miami Marlins (3)* pic.twitter.com/UQAfRbXHp5

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) March 12, 2026

Freeland can do a good job keeping the ball in the park if his sinker is working, but he has given up 22 homers in each of the last two seasons. Before chalking that up to the Coors effect, realize that 15 of those 22 homers last season came away from Coors Field, and 20 came off the bat of righties like Hernandez.

The 26-year-old righty is a longshot play since he could be low in the lineup, but Hernandez can be a nice value to grab at good odds for the Fish's first game on Friday.

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