First Basemen Set to Break Out in 2021

March 24, 2021

Michael Grennell identifies first basemen who could break out in 2021 fantasy baseball leagues. These 1B are undervalued at their ADP and are smart late-round draft targets.

First base is typically one of the biggest sources of power in a fantasy lineup. First basemen hit more home runs than any other position in 2020, with their combined total of 342 homers accounting for nearly 15 percent of MLB's total.

Power comes aplenty at first base, which often means managers will look to wait on drafting a first baseman after the elite guys are off the board. For those who wait, it's important to figure out who to target that will provide the most bang for their buck this season. Depending on the format, in some leagues managers may want to target these guys for their first base slot, while others will look at them as solid corner infield options. Regardless of where they figure into your lineup, these four guys are set to break out in 2021 — and the numbers back that up.

These four guys are all going to be available late in drafts, with some not even being drafted in shallower leagues. But smart fantasy managers should try to target these guys and reap the value of these bargain-bin stars.

Jeimer Candelario, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 259

2020 stats: 52 G, .297/.369/.503, 7 HR, 23.8 K%

One could argue that Candelario already had a breakout season in 2020. He posted career-highs in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while also posting his best wOBA (.373) and wRC+ (136) since joining Detroit. His walk rate did drop down to the second-lowest mark of his career (9.7 percent), but he also saw his strikeout rate drop to 23.8 percent — his lowest rate since 2017. Candelario did get somewhat lucky at the plate last year, as his .372 BABIP was both a career-high and nearly 80 points higher than his career average. But even taking into account that "luckiness", his .275 xBA, .466 xSLG and .353 xwOBA suggest that his 2020 numbers were mostly legitimate.

Now, here's why you should target Candelario in drafts. While his launch angle dropped from 15.8 degrees in 2019 to 13.3 degrees in 2020, he was making much better contact at the plate with career-highs in barrel percentage (10.3%), sweet-spot percentage (37.5%) and hard-hit percentage (47.1%), while his 90.2 mph average exit velocity was his highest mark since his debut season in 2016. That may partially reflect a more aggressive stance at the plate, as he swung at the first pitch at a career-high 29.6 percent rate.

So with all those numbers out there, I pose to you this question: Would you rather draft Candelario at pick 258, or a player who had a lower average (.262), OPS (.800), launch angle (11.1 degrees), sweet-spot percentage (37.2%) and hard-hit rate (35%), and has a 138 ADP? If you chose Candelario, you would be passing on drafting reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.

Yes, I know there are some flaws in that comparison, but my point is that Candelario is poised to have a big year in 2021, and he is being drafted quite a bit later in drafts than where he should be going.

Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox

ADP 290

2020 stats: 23 G, .263/.359/.600, 8 HR, 42.4 K%

Dalbec is already off to a hot start in 2021, as he has had the best spring so far of everyone on this list with a slash line of .333/.419/.926 with five home runs and 12 RBI in 12 games. He's picking up where he left off last year, where he was one of six rookies to hit eight or more home runs. However, unlike the other five guys, Dalbec was the only one to do so in fewer than 25 games. And this is what fantasy managers have been waiting to see from Dalbec, who averaged 20 home runs per year across his four seasons in the minors — including 32 homers between High-A and Double-A in 2018. But while the power looked great, some of his other numbers took a dive in 2020. His 42.4 percent strikeout rate and 21.2 percent swinging-strike rate were his worst marks at any level, and it appears he had some luck at the plate with a .394 BABIP — his highest mark since 2016 — while also posting a .197 xBA.

One fact that cannot be disputed though is that when Dalbec made contact in 2020, he was making solid contact at a high rate. Among batters with at least 90 plate appearances last year, Dalbec's 22 percent barrel rate was the second-highest mark in the majors behind Miguel Sano's 22.9 percent rate. And even with his top-tier power and quality contact, Dalbec is being left undrafted in most leagues with his 290 ADP. That places him behind guys like Rowdy Tellez (283), Carlos Santana (278) and Ryan McMahon (234). Yes, the average looks like a concern for Dalbec this year — which likely partly explains the lower ADP — but his .529 xSLG shows that the power is mostly legitimate. And even with concerns over the average, that power potential plus hitting in a pretty solid-looking Red Sox lineup makes him a great corner-infield option at the tail end of drafts. Mark my words, Dalbec will hit the most home runs in 2021 out of anyone in this column.

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 425

2020 stats: 51 G, .309/.425/.591, 9 HR, 20.1 K%

OK, so when I first made my picks for the four guys on this list, I really liked Belt's potential this year even as he was coming off surgery to remove a bone spur in his heel. And then right around the time I started writing this article was when the news came out that Belt not only had a bout with COVID-19 this offseason, but also mononucleosis. So it's possible that all that could end up having a negative impact on Belt this year, but for the sake of this analysis I will assume no lingering after-effects from his illnesses.

Alright, disclaimer out of the way, I think Belt is going to finally break out this year. I feel like that's a phrase that has been repeated numerous times throughout Belt's career, but his 2020 campaign looks like the stepping stone to a breakout 2021 performance. He posted career-highs in all of his triple-slash line categories, while his 20.1 percent strikeout rate and 16.8 percent walk rate were also career-bests. That walk rate was good enough to rank him eighth in the majors among batters with at least 170 plate appearances, while his on-base percentage was fourth-highest behind only Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna.

Now, much like with Dalbec and Candelario, Belt was a little bit lucky at the plate, but at a much lesser extent than the others. His BABIP was a career-high .356, but it was only 23 points higher than his career average, and his .287 xBA and .597 xSLG suggest that his numbers were very close to being what they should have been.

And speaking of Statcast metrics, Belt's 2020 campaign saw him post some of his best numbers in the Statcast era, as his 16.8 percent barrel rate (ninth-best in the majors), 90.7 mph average exit velocity, 46.9 percent hard-hit rate and 19.4 percent chase rate were all career-highs. Long story short, Belt looked like a completely different hitter last year. Dalbec may have the highest power potential out of the guys on this list, but Belt has the best overall fantasy potential of this group.

You want a bold prediction? Here's one: Brandon Belt will be a top-15 fantasy first baseman in 2021. You heard it here first.

Evan White, Seattle Mariners

ADP 458

2020 stats: 54 G, .176/.252/.346, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 41.6 K%

Making his big league debut last season, White didn't make much noise with a .176 average and .598 OPS over 54 games. His 41.6 percent strikeout rate and 15.6 percent swinging-strike rate were his worst marks of any season in his professional career, as his 84 strikeouts were the third-most in the majors. Despite those struggles, White still managed to finish third on the team in home runs and RBI, and his 8.9 percent walk rate was his best mark since 2018. Obviously, the strikeouts are a big value killer, but according to his underlying numbers, if he can be a little more patient at the plate this year he'll be a solid asset in fantasy.

First and foremost, White appears to have been somewhat unlucky at the plate last year. Granted his .189 xBA and .384 xSLG don't suggest a lot of room for improvement, but it is worth noting that his .264 BABIP was 85 points lower than his career .349 BABIP over three years in the minors. On top of that, there were few first basemen last season that were making harder contact than White, who finished top five among qualified first basemen in barrel percentage (14.1%) and hard-hit rate (52.5%), while his 91.7 mph average exit velocity and his 13.7 degree launch angle had him ranked seventh and 16th respectively. Now I'm not saying he will have an MVP caliber season in 2021, but I'll leave this comparison for you to consider in regards to White's potential this year:

Again, don't expect White to get any MVP votes. But if White can cut down on the strikeouts, and if his performance corrects itself for 2020's "unluckiness" he can be a 25-homer threat. And at ADP 435, that makes him a very solid value pick.

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